How a maverick outsider emerged as presidential hopeful in Argentina

BUENOS AIRES – Fernando Tosto says he doesn't agree with everything that Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei says or wants to do.

But two years ago amid Argentina’s hard-hitting financial crisis, Milei emerged as a candidate, presenting an economic vision to fix the country's deep-seated financial troubles so convincingly that Tosto, an administrator handling the data-entry for Eleman, an electromechanics business in the capital, was inspired to study economics at the University of Buenos Aires.

Milei’s bid to strive for fiscal balance by reducing the printing of money, lowering public spending and reducing the size of the state and imposing cuts to politician’s pensions caught Tosto’s attention.

Now Tosto considers Milei, an economist-turned-politician, the best option to lead Argentina, as it grapples with 115 percent inflation and a poverty rate running at 40 percent.

He does vehemently disagree with Milei regarding his proposal to freely carry guns in Argentina like in parts of the United States. Tosto describes it as potential “chaos” and is fearful it could increase homicides nationwide over simple things like road traffic incidents between drivers.

A resident of Buenos Aires province, Tosto says the economic crisis has increased the sense of insecurity on the streets of Tres de Febrero, his neighbourhood, which has been struggling due to a lack of investment by the politicians to deploy police to the area.

In Tosto’s case he says Milei's proposed cuts couldn't impact as he doesn't receive any state subsidy while tax cuts could generate more opportunities to hire workers, arguing he is in favour of lowering public spending.

“He (Milei) came to show something new – fresh, to the politics that we were not experiencing in the previous years,” says Tosto.

“You can't live here anymore,” Tosto tells TRT World, referencing the country’s economic situation. “It's unavoidable that a change would appear.”

Now he says he will vote for Milei in Argentina’s primary on August 13 and presidential election later in October this year.

While Milei’s vision largely touches upon the country’s economic woes, his rhetoric on tackling crime is equally shrill.

“He is someone who convinces you when he speaks. You see him as someone who is a serious contender,” Tosto says, convinced that Milei will steer Argentina to economic salvation.

Tosto believes alongside improvements to healthcare Milei’s economic vision will entail hard working Argentines can be afforded “a better quality of life, (with) more security.”

According to Pablo Villarreal, a researcher at “Laboratory of Studies on Democracy and Authoritarianism” at Argentina's National University of General San Martín, “Milei is not perceived in society as a representative of the economic elite, but rather as a politician who "speaks to the workers".

Perceived as pro-worker politician by lower-working class Argentines, Villareal says Milei is seen as a figure closer to former president and current Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, describing him as "kind of popular liberal right"- capable of capturing a lot of votes both from the right-wing alliance Juntos por el Cambio, and from the Peronist coalition Frente de Todos, which could boost his campaign prospects.

In recent years Milei, emerged on television programmes, discussing economic matters, gaining prominence for his theatrical televised takedowns of Argentina’s so-called political elite or “caste”.

“From there he (has) defended the most extreme form of economic liberalism, with a strong criticism of state intervention, public spending and the redistributive intervention of the state that went ‘against individual freedom’,” Villareal tells TRT World.

He adds that in Argentina social exhaustion regarding economics and politics has driven “a type of anti-politics that leads to the desire for something new.”

Milei, a flamboyant politician who dons a leather jacket and idolises the Rolling Stones, began as a goalkeeper at a professional Football Club, ‘Chacarita Juniors,’ before pivoting towards the Austrian school of economics and becoming a university professor. He also happens to be offering a radically different economic solution – Milei is strongly pro-market to the point of potentially liberalising organ sales. Nevertheless among working class sectors, local reports suggest he is gaining traction unlike previous liberals among those that would have traditionally voted for the ruling Peronist coalition living in informal and low socioeconomic neighbourhoods.

In 2021, Milei became a lawmaker and leader of the Liberty Advances coalition, positioning himself as an “outsider economist,” explains Maria Susana Martins, a researcher at the Journalism and Social Communication Faculty at La Plata's National University.

In doing so, Milei has pushed his brand of anti-establishment discourse, denouncing Argentina’s political establishment and being vocal about his fight against socialism. He’s also against abortion and favours private gun ownership.

Amid a spiralling economy and the loss of purchasing power in Argentina, Milei promises wholesale economic reforms — from slashing taxes, cutting public spending to dollarising the economy. Part of his outlandish economic vision entails “blowing up” the Central Bank, claiming it is allegedly set up to steal citizen’s money and to benefit Argentina’s “political caste”.

One issue with Milei’s form of speech, Villareal warns, is that it can lead “to direct violent action against politicians,” noting the assassination attempt on Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner that occurred in September 2022.

A social phenomenon

Nevertheless, Milei’s voice has secured a growing online following.

Tosto says he first found out about the presidential candidate on social media after his friend shared some of Milei’s online posts with him a few years back.

“In my case, I usually get more information through social networks than television,” he says, acknowledging some scepticism of Argentina’s polarising media.

After some time watching Milei, the 28-year-old says he got drawn in by the politician’s confident manner and policies discussed in his videos.

Some analysts have drawn a comparison of Milei’s digital campaign strategy to the likes of former Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro and former US president Donald Trump.

Martins says Milei adopts two main strategies to woo voters.

The first “inorganic and disorderly” strategy entails harnessing clips of TV interviews and public appearances. The second strategy is more “strategic”, more professionalised, personalised and complex, relying on selfies, memes, videos, notably on Instagram to connect with citizens. It seeks to establish his visual identity and increase engagement, through followers and interactions.

“In this sense, we find Milei working on some key concepts: the figure of the Lion (as a metonymy for his tangled hair) and the slogan "Aguante la libertad, carajo" (Long live freedom, damn it) which has become his favourite slogan,” Martins tells TRT World.

She adds that his message typically gets reduced to slogans while different digital communities have formed around Milei online.

For Tosto "what I notice is that there are many young people who already have the idea that Argentina is not going anywhere.”

Martin’s research suggests most of Milei’s followers are largely young males aged 15-35 years old, discussing themes like the future, strength, liberty, work, taxation.

Villareal suggests the impact of Covid-19 has propelled Milei’s rise, particularly concerning feelings of “confinement” and “frustration.” His speech has mostly reached young Argentines suffering the highest impact of the economic crisis and difficulties in the labour market, resulting in “high levels of precariousness” around daily work.

According to Martins, Milei’s online content revolves around shouting, insults, threats and “hyperbolic discourse.” In digital spaces, she says his social media accounts rely on promoting images over discourse.

In one notable image on Instagram Milei displays a politician in rat form with the words "corrupt policy" on its back as it embraces a journalist with the words 'sold out journalism', in what appears to be a bid to portray his worldview.

Martins argues the promotion of images over discourse weakens his candidacy, underscoring the perception that it is difficult for him to engage away from economic matters.

36-year-old Matias Nicolas Pennisi, an accounts clerk sees the general discontent as the main fuel behind Milei's success, noting the strong polarisation between those backing the former president Kirchner and the rightwing opposition PRO.

Buenos Aires local Pennisi argues many are prepared to cast a "punishment vote (against) rather than a conscious vote" for what he describes as a form of "anti-politics that uses a rock-star image and discourse that attracts the most depoliticised sector of the population."

Critical of Milei, Pennisi perceives his popularity lies in Buenos Aires but not as much in the hinterlands of Argentina.

Under Milei's policy proposals, Pennisi sees echoes of aspects of liberalism from Argentina under the 1990s government of Menem that led to Argentina’s deep economic crisis in 2001, as the local currency was pegged to the dollar. He believes that many of the youth that are prepared to vote for Milei may have no direct experience of that tumultuous time in Argentina, as the banking system collapsed and people lost their life savings.

"A return to liberalism under the terms proposed by Milei could only lead to a greater impoverishment for the population and an even more marked division among the lower and upper classes (the middle class are currently hit badly) and a possible worsening in the dispute between the most organised sectors (of society) and the state, which happened in 2017 during pension reform implementation under Mauricio Macri’s government (PRO)," Pennisi tells TRT World.

According to Villareal, like other global far-right movements alongside fiscal austerity, criticism of all redistributive spending by the State, attacking progressive politics, scapegoating others, there is a push to guarantee social order with Milei.

He describes it as a more severe and punitive security policy and a “renewed social authoritarianism that even accepts that the security forces go beyond the legal procedures allowed to exercise social control”.

Local reports indicate that Milei’s coalition has touted deporting foreigners who commit crimes, floating a ‘public-private’ jail system and calling for the “unification of security systems”, entailing the merging of military and police forces.

On August 7, Milei closed his 'Liberty Tour' primary election campaign at the Humboldt stadium in the downtown neighbourhood of Villa Crespo. Outside thousands of Milei supporters lined the streets, beating drums, carrying flags and chanting his name with some roads around the stadium cut off.

Inside as people danced, clapped and broke into chants as the mood appeared a cross between the deep tribalism of attending a football match and the theatrics of a rock concert, as the sound of rock bands ACDC, Ramones and the Rolling Stones boomed loudly.

Before Milei took to the stage, a range of videos appeared, depicting explosions and collapsing buildings in what appeared to be a nod to the self-described “anarcho-capitalist” prepared to radically alter the political system.

Before giving his speech Milei forced his way through thousands of supporters across the floor who tried to embrace him as the lyrics 'I am the king of a lost world' by Argentine hard-rock band La Renga's famous song entitled 'I am the lion' reverberated in the venue.

In his speech, the populist was quick to thank the “silent work” by his supporters for propelling his candidacy, jumping around the stage, waving his arms in an ebullient manner while working the crowds into a frenzy at various points of the night.

On several occasions he hit out at journalists and called Argentina’s political class “thieves.”

On one occasion he even lost his voice, pausing to remind the people gathered that he was “only human” and while sipping some water the crowd broke in chants of “the caste is scared.”

Confetti filled the stage as he wrapped up his campaign, embracing his members political team and then covering all corners of the stage to wave passionately to supporters before exiting.

As Milei continues to gain popularity among different segments of Argentine society, most worryingly according to Villareal in Milei’s political space is what he describes as a “denialist component regarding the crimes and terror of the last civic-military dictatorship” tied to the ultra-conservative vice-presidential candidate, Victoria Villarruel who has defended military personnel accused of alleged crimes against humanity between 1976-1983.

However, amid a heated political season, Tosto says everyone is seeking to score political points.

Citing poor salaries, high levels of child poverty and a devaluing currency, Tosto is not convinced by any other political candidate and intends to back Milei at the polls.

“If I’m honest, I didn’t hear any strong proposals from any of the other candidates. They repeat the same script that has already failed,” he says.