Argentina heads to presidential primaries amid crippling economic crisis

BUENOS AIRES - Argentines head to the polls in the country’s primary elections on August 13, widely considered a test of how the presidential election will go on October 22.

In a bid to whittle down the presidential hopefuls, any candidate unable to secure 1.5 percent of the total vote will be out of the running in the general election.

In the last primaries four years ago, opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez beat then-incumbent Mauricio Macri in a shock result, tanking markets and sparking an economic crisis. The Argentine peso lost 25 percent of its value.

Amid a debilitating economic crisis, Argentines are again feeling the squeeze. Labour unions that have historically backed the ruling Peronists have taken to the streets in protests while many sectors of society struggle to make it to the end of the month amid spiralling inflation.

The killing of an 11-year-old girl by motorcycle-borne robbers has sent shockwaves around the country, with the leading candidates cancelling their campaign rallies ahead of the primaries.

Among the leading candidates is Conservative figure Patricia Bullrich of the centre-right PRO party, widely considered tough on security. She has also made pledges to relax some economic policies like currency control.

Mayor of Buenos Aires Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, a centre-right politician known for his focus on education, labour and security, is another leading candidate, as is Sergio Massa, the current economic minister representing the centrist wing of Peronism and having deep ties to the country's private sector.

Javier Milei, a lawmaker for La Libertad Avanza (Freedom Advances) coalition and a self-described “anarcho-capitalist” who analysts say has tapped into some people's despair on both sides of the aisle, giving him the platform as an outsider. He is campaigning on a forum for wholesale economic reforms, relaxing firearms and dollarising the economy.

However, many like Mateo Abelenda have little hope - no matter who wins - though the musician is gravitating towards The Workers’ Left Front – Unity, a political alliance with Trotskyist roots who have Myriam Bregman as their main pre-candidate

As political billboards line Buenos Aires’ famous Avenida Corrientes and other parts of the capital with different slogans and pledges, 30-year-old Abelenda believes this year's elections are different.

He perceives a shift in the right-wing political space regarding the rise of the “outsider” candidate, Javier Milei, who has touted the sale of human organs, sweeping privatisation and doing away with the Central bank.

Abelenda views that the domestic media has helped propel Milei to gain a foothold in shaping the country’s political discourse amid the general disenchantment towards traditional candidates.

He tells TRT World that both the ruling coalition and opposition have begun to increase the rhetoric “to echo those same statements amid a sustained economic crisis, a lack of dollar reserves and galloping inflation,” he tells TRT World.

Consequently, Abelenda feels different sides of the political aisle have inched closer to some of Milei’s radical proposals, such as dollarisation of the economy.

The sentiment is shared by many in the Southern Cone.

“Argentina, like other parts of the world, is heading to the right,” Emiliano Correia, who runs a digital portal concerning labour unions, tells TRT World.

Like other parts of the Americas, the 42-year-old journalist draws comparisons to the emergence of former president Donald Trump in the US and former president Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil.

Craving economic stability

Amid the economic malaise, Correia feels this election could define the next two decades for Argentina and the region.

Nevertheless, with strong ties to businesses and the working-class sectors, he believes the rise of current economic minister Sergio Massa is not “by chance”.

Correia describes Massa as a “competitive” and “attractive” candidate, perceiving him as someone able to “provide economic stability” that many across the country crave.

As Argentina’s currency continues to fall, many remain unable to safeguard their earnings in dollars amid tight currency controls and informal exchanges.

Informal traders in the capital's business district of Microcentro tout their services on the backstreets, shouting “exchange”.

Many take willing locals or tourists to unofficial dingy stalls in precincts where highly-prized $100 bills are exchanged at nearly twice the daily official rate with bundles of pesos returned to customers.

As Argentina’s currency continues to plummet, the government is also dealing with the reality of being on an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program.

According to Correia, the IMF issue, inflation and salary inflation hitting people’s purchasing power are all going to be key areas that the incoming governments will face and likely the potential determining factors in this year’s elections.

In 2018, Argentina received the largest loan in IMF history during the presidency of Mauricio Macri, and Abelenda feels like many that the government challenges to “renegotiate that agreement in a sovereign manner”.

Luciano Cogoma, an administrator at the University of the Merchant Marine, feels any government’s hands will be tied to the IMF programme. “Very little is expected from these elections,” he says.

Despite fines and mandatory voting in Argentina, the 35-year-old describes “great apathy” and “absenteeism” in the recent provincial elections among citizens.

Argentina's loss of purchasing power, Cogomo says, is impacting people’s abilities to put food on the table and pay bills, adding that Argentines will vote for the candidate whose promise to boost economic prospects appeals to them the most.

But he also feels there are other issues to contend with beyond the push for economic stability.

“The big problem is that when the economy is so urgent, so many other (human) rights are left aside that the population ends up accepting that their rights are infringed, “ Cogoma says, underscoring what he sees as a deterioration in the living and working conditions for Argentines.

‘Least-worst option’

Nevertheless, many are contemplating voting for whom they perceive as the least-worst candidate.

With the country set for local and national elections, Aldana Arias Britos, a 26-year-old political science student, says she will vote for Martin Lousteau, who is bidding to become the Buenos Aires Mayor, and back Larreta in the national vote.

Hailing from Argentina’s interior heartland of Santa Cruz, Britos moved to the capital to study at the University of Buenos Aires.

While Larreta was in charge as Buenos Aires mayor, Britos perceives wholesale changes to the capital city.

“During the years that I lived here, I saw that the city was improved in various ways…security has increased on the streets,” she tells TRT World.

She says some sectors need vital improvements in crucial areas like education, health, job opportunities for young people and the economic outlook.

Small-scale businesses are also walking the financial tightrope and face several hurdles. Entrepreneurs like Julia Elena Massa, who produces a range of customised belts for the military and security forces, face economic issues impacting their whole supply chains.

For Massa, the spiralling inflation and volatility hitting the peso make it challenging to plan regarding the best pricing and profit margins to ensure her business’s longevity.

“It is very difficult to plan ahead for more than a week since we do not know how or how much money will reach us," the 57-year-old tells TRT World.

Like others this year, Massa doesn’t hold any hope ahead of the presidential elections in 2023.

“It was difficult to cope with these last four years with a government that could not control the economy (inflation), security, education and health,” she says.

Massa echoes the critical sentiment towards the current Peronist coalition government on the Buenos Aires’ streets, labelling it “dishonest”.

Amid what she describes as Argentina’s worst political moment, Massa says she likes two candidates - Patricia Bullrich, a hardliner and tough-talking politician on crime and punishment, and Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, the current Buenos Aires mayor.

She had hoped that they would not be competing with each other in the primaries.

"One has the ability to govern and the other has the courage to face Argentina’s difficult politicians," says Massa.

Whoever gets into power, she hopes for improvements to the economy, education, healthcare and security, but she paints a bleak picture.

"With each election, one is filled with vigour and hope that everything will improve, but this country has been getting worse and worse," Massa says.