Brazil G20: Lula to push for new world order with ‘Global South’ at centre

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is bidding to give nations from the Global South a bigger platform to allow their voice to be heard around shaping global governance. Although the term Global South is problematic as it sets up a dichotomy between the developed north and the developing south, countries on the middle-powers spectrum like Brazil, Türkiye and India are rising to challenge the skewed global order.

Lula, the South American leader, is widely expected to seek to drive reforms to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and other key issues, including combating poverty and the environment and alleviating debt burdens.

Lula's bid comes after Brazil took over the rotating G20 presidency in December, as observers describe it as a longstanding aim for the Latin American Nation and Lula.

⁠Marina Pontes, a political analyst at Prospectiva Public Affairs Latam, says Brazil has previously sought to occupy this space in the League of Nations Council. Amid the UN's foundation in 1945, she describes a campaign from Brazil to become the sixth member of the Security Council.

"The most recent campaign started in the 1990s when Brazil began engaging more with multilateral organisations and treaties," she tells TRT World.

Lula's push largely stems from his first presidential term in the early 2000s and the belief that various institutions do not reflect "the distribution of international power in the 21st century”, says Andre Luiz Reis da Silva, Associate Professor of International Relations at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul.

"Its dysfunctionality is reflected in its inability to deal with international crises. The power of veto should be questioned," Reis da Silva says, describing "how the Security Council has failed to provide a response to the conflict currently occurring in Palestine."

Reforming global governance

Recently, Lula has denounced the "genocide" against Palestinians in Gaza. He spoke against the UNSC, insisting, "Today it represents nothing, it does not take any decisions, it does nothing for peace."

According to Pontes, "The current issue is that the UN has been discredited, and there are doubts whether the organisation can effectively address the issues it was created for."

Amid the high death toll of Women and Children in the besieged Palestinian enclave, Brazil's leader described widespread "hypocrisy", adding, "We cannot accept what is happening in Gaza, and we cannot accept the war in Ukraine."

Lula also criticised the inefficiency of the global governance system, describing it as unable to curb conflicts involving permanent UNSC member nations.

"We need to rethink all this so that we can increase the number of countries in the Security Council. It is necessary to end the right of veto. The permanent members of the UN Security Council are the countries that produce weapons, that sell weapons and that have recently been waging wars. It was like that in Iraq; it was like that in Libya," said Lula.

Pontes believes Lula is adept at uniting domestic and international issues, which broadly aligns with his bid to expand the UNSC.

"For the president, expanding the Council's representation means increasing the involvement of emerging countries which, outside of international organisations, have little or no external political power. This is because currently, only advanced economies, which are also nuclear powers, hold such influence," she says.

Pontes describes Brazil's and other aspiring countries' inclusion as signifying "a process of democratising the international arena."

Emerging nations would bring more diverse perspectives to high-profile discussions, which are more representative of the population and global GDP, she says.

"Lula sees foreign policy as a means for development and overcoming Brazil's status as a former colony. International leadership projection, including expanding the UNSC, holds symbolic power in this regard," says Pontes.

Reis da Silva believes "Brazil's interest is to reform the multilateral system, questioning the power of the great powers and defining its direction."

Revitalising financial systems

For Lula, increasing the Global South's influence is also understood to touch upon improved representation of the Global South in the multilateral system and involving the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB).

Pontes says such institutions have mandates permitting "direct interference in countries (especially the IMF)."

She notes a "more ideological component" from Lula's initial tenure when Brazil was indebted to the IMF, leading him to describe the "somewhat humiliating" annual IMF visits to check the fiscal situation.

"There's also a perception, from Lula's standpoint, that these institutions are managed from a mindset of the global north and thus do not comprehend the challenges of developing countries or are so austere that they socially harm the country," Pontes tells TRT World.

Initially, the G20, an intergovernmental forum that today accounts for around 80% of GDP worldwide, focused on broad macroeconomic matters. It has since expanded its remit to include trade, sustainable development, health, agriculture, energy and environment.

Reis da Silva notes the significantly changing reality of the global economy amid emerging "centres of economic power," primarily China, which today is the world's second-largest economy.

He views the BRICS bloc of emerging economies originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and more recently Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates as overseeing financial matters well. He says it was one of the "motivating factors for the creation of BRICS and also for their participation in the G20."

"The G20 itself emerged from the need for the G7 to incorporate other economic centres to discuss global financial trends and overcome the crisis," he says.

The New Development Bank (NDB), previously the BRICS Bank, "Although still modest in terms of resources, has been presenting itself as an alternative for countries to negotiate with traditional financial institutions. For countries of the Global South, it means relief from the pressures of the IMF and World Bank," Reis da Silva says.

The dollar impact

In 2023, while visiting China, Lula signalled his intent to steer commerce away from USD dependence in global trade, questioning the reliance on the currency.

Brazil's leader also discussed the potential of BRICS to establish a new trading currency and floated the idea of establishing a regional currency for Latin America.

According to Pontes, this is a "strategy to achieve independence" from USD, noting its volatility, usually with exchange rate appreciation, impacting developing countries.

"Despite all its importance, the dollar has been used by the West as an instrument of power and coercion," Reis da Silva says.

He highlights the Bretton Woods system, a monetary system that establishes the rules for commercial relations among 44 nations that was drawn up in 1944. It eventually paved the way for the IMF and the WB.

Regarding BRICS, the drive is more of a "direct political consequence, as China and Russia, countries more prone to Western sanctions, could bypass this mechanism by not adopting the dollar in their international transactions," says Pontes.

Sustainable development

Another motivation is to push for a great voice for the Global South, one of Lula's central aims to combat hunger, poverty and the environment at the G20.

Analysts suggest it aligns with the fundamental challenges that Global South nations face.

Since the 1990s, Brazil has focussed on the right to development, overcoming poverty and working on the "sustainable development" concept, explains Reis da Silva.

He describes it as tied to "common but differentiated responsibilities" that seek greater contributions from developed nations.

One key area has been the Amazon rainforest. Under the tenure of former President Jair Bolsonaro, domestic and international sectors criticised the former administration. They insisted Bolsonaro rolled back environmental protections, causing ecological destruction as illegal loggers, miners, and ranchers cleared large swathes of land.

As Lula returned to office for a third mandate last year, Brazil has pushed to safeguard the Amazon, as deforestation levels in Brazil's rainforest in 2023 dropped 50 percent compared to 2022 - their lowest levels since 2018.

By incorporating environmental issues, Brazil fosters a global interest and ties itself to the policies of Global South nations, Reis da Silva says.

Pontes notes how it is pertinent to environmental matters, as climate disasters "disproportionately" impact socially vulnerable groups.

"These themes also directly relate to Lula's domestic agenda, as his focus is on reinstating social programs discontinued in past administrations and achieving economic recovery that positively impacts the country's population and macroeconomic scenario," she says.

For Pontes, it is not coincidental that the G20 remit addresses these issues, including "all three dimensions of sustainable development: ecological, economic, and social," she says.

According to Reis da Silva, "Brazil's role in the Lula government, within the G20, has proven to be a great opportunity to serve as a bridge and mediator between the interests of rich and poor countries, between the North and the Global South."

Shifting Global Order

More broadly, some experts are beginning to question whether the world order is starting to shift.

Pontes points to "a geopolitical shift in power since the end of the Cold War. Since 9/11 and the invasion of Iraq, US hegemony has been questioned. This process intensified with China's rapid growth, which sparked a technological conflict with the US in particular."

She acknowledges China's commercial and military power, describing other soft power elements of "hegemony," lagging behind the US while the West is concerned about "what Chinese growth could represent in a few years."

Among emerging nations, Lula has recently underscored how indispensable Africa is for the unity and progress of the Global South amid a regional visit and called for the African Union (AU) to become a full member of the G20.

Some analysts also point to tectonic shifts from unipolar to multipolar order.

"My view is that we are moving towards a multipolar world, but perhaps even more complex. We are living in a period of crisis and transition, where we coexist with multiple polarities (unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar), but also with globalist traits," Reis da Silva says.

He says that, like any transition period, wars and conflicts increase alongside economic competition.

"There is a clear shift of the centre of global development towards Asia, which the West struggles to comprehend, accept, and deal with. Much of the conflicts may arise from disputes in the terrain of the Global South, in the struggle for influence, markets, and resources," Reis da Silva says.

He believes the Global South need not be an object of contention and can be a relevant actor, building consensus and providing solutions.

Reis da Silva says, "In the larger geopolitical chessboard, intermediary and regional powers, such as Brazil and also Türkiye, can contribute as mediators. And offer responses to the international crises of the present time."