Can Macron survive snap elections?

French President Emmanuel Macron’s startling decision to hold a snap general election comes in the wake of his defeat to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) in the European parliamentary elections. The decision was a “serious and heavy” one, he said in a television broadcast to the nation, but he could not accept that “far-right parties...are progressing everywhere on the continent.”

The president called his decision “an act of confidence”, adding that he believed in “the capacity of the French people to make the best choice for themselves and for future generations.”

According to the Guardian, RN President Jordan Bardella had pressed Macron to call for early elections after the European parliamentary election results were announced, in which his party received double the votes of Macron’s centrist alliance. The French voters have “expressed a desire for change… given its verdict and there is no appeal,” he said to his support base.

Meanwhile, presidential candidate Le Pen said she welcomed the decision and that her party was “ready to put the country back on its feet,” and “defend the interests of the French people.”

Article 12 of the French constitution allows presidents to dissolve the assemblée nationale to resolve political crises, such as permanent and irreconcilable differences between parliament and the executive.

Previous presidents have dissolved parliament, including in 1962, 1968, 1981 and 1988, when the presidential term was seven years but the parliament’s only five, meaning the head of state often found himself facing an opposing majority in the assembly.

It has not always worked in their favour; in 1997, the then centre-right president, Jacques Chirac, called snap legislative elections only to see the left win a majority, leaving him to endure five years in “cohabitation”.

Prior to the election results, several polls showed that the French President’s popularity has plummeted in recent years, particularly among younger voters.

According to one poll, published in Le Monde, only four percent of 18-24-year-olds said they would consider voting for Macron’s coalition party, compared to 29 percent of over-70s. Rising costs of living and discontent in rural parts of the country are other factors.

In 2022, Macron’s coalition party lost its parliamentary majority and controversially passed legislation without a lower house vote.

Analysts had warned that the French President’s centrist alliance would face major setbacks in parliament in the wake of the recent defeat. However, many also believe it is unlikely RN will win enough seats to give them a majority.

“It will almost certainly put a brake on Le Pen,” risk consultancy expert Mujtaba Rahman told Politico. “Because the base case is not that she will win a majority in the legislative election. I don’t think Le Pen will do as well in the legislative election, it’s a two round election, it’s a different group of voters who will be mobilised.”

The elections are slated to take place on June 30th and July 7th. They are important for not only the country's future, but the cohesion of the European Union.