Can Trump 2.0 reassert ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran?

On November 7, Brian Hook, Donald Trump’s former special envoy for Iran, hinted at the revival of what he called Trump’s “deal of the century," signalling a renewed push to isolate Iran diplomatically and economically.

The next day, a report by the Wall Street Journal confirmed that US President-elect Donald Trump intends to revive his signature “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran by escalating sanctions and targeting Tehran’s oil exports to curb the country’s nuclear ambitions and regional influence.

Elise Stefanik, Trump’s Zionist pick for UN Ambassador, reaffirmed this on X, calling for a return to a strategy of “peace through strength.”

However, the region Trump seeks to pressure has evolved —and so has Saudi Arabia’s role within it.

On November 11, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), in a first, described Israel’s actions in Gaza as “genocide” and urged the international community to “compel Israel to respect Iran’s sovereignty and not to attack (Iranian) territories,” in a sign of opting to resume diplomatic relations with Iran.

Experts suggest that Saudi Arabia is leveraging its position to negotiate favourable terms for potential normalisation with Israel.

The Saudi Crown Prince is likely “trying to talk up the price for normalisation and a deal preemptively,” Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King’s College London says.

“None of the Gulf states want to bear the burden of Trump’s pressure campaign while Trump appears unwilling to get the US dragged into a direct conflict with Iran,” he tells TRT World.

Saudi Arabia has never had formal diplomatic relations with Israel. The kingdom has historically conditioned normalisation on the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, in line with the Arab Peace Initiative it proposed in 2002.

“We confirm that Saudi Arabia will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel until that goal is achieved,” MBS said in September.

A credibility challenge

The Trump administration’s first-term approach to Iran faced criticism for its limited success in achieving broader Gulf security.

Despite heavy sanctions, Iran’s regional influence persisted, and attacks like the 2019 missile strike by Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis on Saudi oil facilities highlighted the vulnerability of Gulf states.

Trump’s non-military response to these incidents undermined confidence in the US as a reliable security partner.

“By the end of Trump’s first term, Gulf leaders realised (maximum pressure) had not succeeded in making the Gulf Arab monarchies more secure,” Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, told the Financial Times.

When did it all start?

Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign was largely in response to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed in July 2015 between Iran and major world powers, including the US, UK, France, China, Russia, and Germany.

The deal aimed to curb Iran's nuclear program in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. It limited uranium enrichment, allowed International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections, and sought to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, were sceptical, fearing it empowered Iran without addressing its regional activities, such as support for militant groups.

Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA in May 2018, calling it inadequate for addressing Iran’s regional influence and missile program.

His administration reimposed sanctions on Iran and introduced additional punitive measures, aiming to cripple Iran’s economy and force it to renegotiate a broader agreement.

At the time, Gulf leaders welcomed this stance, aligning with their own concerns about Iran.

However, as the “maximum pressure” campaign escalated tensions, Gulf states began realising that siding with a bellicose America could easily expose them to Iranian retaliation and drag them into a potential regional war.

The Gulf after Trump’s exit

In March 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran restored diplomatic ties in a landmark deal brokered by China after a seven-year hiatus.

This agreement emphasised mutual respect for sovereignty and non-interference in each other's internal affairs, reflecting the Gulf states’ pivot towards dialogue with Iran to protect their security and prioritise economic diversification.

It marked a significant moment in Gulf-Iran relations, with both sides committing to improved ties.

While the rhetoric of Trump’s entourage signals a hardline stance reminiscent of Trump’s first term, “it remains uncertain whether Trump will revert to his previous stance on Iran or pursue a new nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic,” a report by Arab Center Washington DC reads.

“It appears that Saudi Arabia will continue to adhere to its strategic hedging policies toward Iran, seeking to avoid direct involvement in the ongoing regional conflict.”