Clock is ticking: 2024 to be the hottest year since industrial revolution

If 2024 has felt unbearably warm, you’re not alone in feeling that way—scientists are now saying this year might go down in history as the hottest since humans began burning fossil fuels.

According to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the global average temperature is expected to exceed the critical 1.5C threshold above pre-industrial levels. This would mark a historic milestone, underscoring the dramatic impact of greenhouse gas emissions and climate crisis.

The C3S Monthly Climate Bulletin for October highlights that human activities have created an elevated temperature baseline.

Francisca Guglielmo, a senior scientist at C3S, told TRT World that 2024 follows a record-breaking 2023, a year where all continents (except Australia) and oceans saw their highest surface temperatures on record, or came close to them.

“The predominant contributions to the global air temperature anomaly came from the tropical oceans (which, among others, saw the occurrence of El Nino) and the temperate land of the northern hemisphere,” she noted.

“We have seen month by month the global air temperatures rising. 2024 thus started already at unprecedented levels, maintaining up until last summer record values and a significant offset even with respect to 2023,” she explained.

An El Nino event also played a role in this year’s heating, though Guglielmo noted that the climate’s complexity is influenced by multiple factors beyond greenhouse gases alone, such as solar radiation, volcanic eruptions, aerosols, and natural climate variability.

Guglielmo explained that “ultimately the main driver behind the rising temperatures is the increase in the concentration of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in the absence of which these records would have been much less likely to occur."

For some regions, the implications of these temperature spikes are immediate and devastating. In Lahore, Pakistan, where air quality has reached hazardous levels this year with AQI exceeding 1,100, environmental lawyer and activist Ahmed Rafay Alam discussed the visible effects of climate change in 2024 with TRT World.

“The greenhouse gas emissions from around the world… since the Industrial Revolution, have increased global surface temperatures on average 1.1C to 1.2C that they were…unless these emissions are stabilised, it is only going to get warmer,” he warned.

Alam emphasised that the immediate and long-term consequences of global warming are devastating.

“As temperatures rise it will become increasingly difficult for ecosystems and biodiversity to thrive,” he said, noting that “we are already in the sixth extinction event where the rate of loss of biodiversity is higher than it has ever been.”

Alam pointed out that while climate change affects regions in different ways, it all stems from the destabilisation of the planet's ecosystems.

This year’s intense Asian heatwave, which claimed over 1,000 lives across South Asia and the Middle East, illustrates how rising temperatures are already exacerbating issues of public health and food security.

“Crops are also impacted by climate change and this in turn will have an impact on farmers and drive them and communities to poverty,” Alam said.

All eyes on COP29

With climate-related disasters escalating, leaders are set to meet in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) next week.

Finance will be at the forefront of discussions, as countries debate funding mechanisms to curb emissions and protect vulnerable populations. Yet, the summit’s effectiveness is under scrutiny, with key figures like US President Joe Biden and leaders from the EU and Brazil reportedly planning to skip the event.

According to Alam, one of COP29’s biggest priorities should be ensuring that developed nations fulfil their financial commitments to support mitigation efforts in developing countries. Countries in the Global South are hit hardest by climate crisis and they need the resources to protect the lives and livelihoods of their people.

Paris Agreement and a 1.5C world

The landmark Paris Agreement of 2015 aimed to prevent global temperatures from surpassing 1.5C. Yet scientists now project that we may reach this threshold within the next five years. Guglielmo pointed out that C3S and the UK Met Office warned of this possibility as early as last year.

“In the near future, it is not a given that all years from now on will be above 1.5C but the probability of this happening is gradually increasing over time,” she said. “We expect the 1.5C limit to be breached between the end of this decade and the start of the next.”

Guglielmo, however, noted that if the international community can act decisively now, there remains a chance to prevent prolonged, permanent breaches of this threshold.

“Whether we will be able, in the long run, to bring the global temperature anomalies again below 1.5C depends on our current decisions and our priorities,” she observed.

A cascade of disasters

2024 has already seen devastating floods, wildfires, and hurricanes linked to climate warming.

In October alone, flash floods in Spain left over 200 people dead, wildfires wreaked havoc in Peru and Bangladesh saw a rice crop loss of 1.1 metric tons due to floods, heightening food insecurity.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had already reported an intense Atlantic hurricane season in 2024, driven by warmer ocean temperatures and La Nina conditions, which favour storm development.

La Nina or El Nino is a periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that can contribute to global warming and warmer weather.

The re-election of Donald J. Trump as US President on November 6 could pose further challenges for climate action. During his previous term, Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Accord, and his renewed leadership may cast uncertainty over COP29’s prospects for securing climate funding.

As 2024 draws to a close, it’s clear that the effects of climate crisis are not just predictions—they are reality. From deadly heatwaves to food crises and biodiversity loss, the repercussions are here and now. The choices made at COP29, and by world leaders going forward, will determine whether the 1.5C mark becomes a new norm or remains a cautionary threshold.