Could arson and violence threats disrupt the US Election?

With just days until Americans head to the polls, intelligence agencies are warning local law enforcement and election officials about heightened risk of violence affecting ballot boxes, polling locations, and election staff across the US.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has issued a bulletin saying, “Some individuals are calling for violence as a response to election fraud narratives, primarily targeting election officials and populations that threat actors perceive as threatening the integrity of the 2024 general election.”

This comes as cases of ballot drop box arson have sparked fresh security concerns nationwide.

Ballot drop boxes are main target

The spate of attacks on ballot boxes has raised specific alarm.

In Vancouver, Washington, officials reported that an incendiary device attached to a ballot drop box caused fire, destroying hundreds of ballots.

On the same day, a similar incident occurred in Portland, Oregon, where an incendiary device was detonated, though a fire suppressant system limited damage to just three ballots.

Last week, a mailbox holding election ballots in Phoenix, Arizona, was also targeted by arson, damaging around 20 ballots.

According to Wired, Federal officials have warned that incendiary and explosive devices could be used against absentee ballot drop boxes and advised local agencies to take all possible precautions.

Since 2023, the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has conducted security assessments for over 1,000 election offices nationwide. These recommendations allow local offices to implement safety measures, although securing funding remains challenging in some districts.

‘Not typical threat’

Following recent arson attacks on ballot drop-off boxes in Oregon and Washington, election officials have ramped up security at polling stations and ballot collection points.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and DHS are collaborating closely with local agencies to minimise risks, but the scale of threats is significant.

NBC reported that government sources described the situation as "not typical election threat intelligence" and pointed to a “radically heightened threat environment.”

The polarisation over controversial topics is noted as a driver of the threats, which include physical attacks on ballot drop boxes and potential violence at polling sites.

Several states are now fortifying polling stations with additional security infrastructure, including "panic buttons" and bulletproof windows.

Poll workers are receiving specialised training to handle disruptive behaviour, particularly from certain individuals acting as self-appointed poll watchers, a trend seen in previous elections where accusations of voter intimidation arose.

States like Arizona and Delaware have invested in new technologies to enhance transparency, including live-streaming feeds from tabulation rooms and artificial intelligence systems to detect unusual voting patterns.

Guns at polling sites

Concerns about safety at polling sites also extend to firearms.

Although states have long prohibited electioneering within polling sites, bans on guns are far less uniform.

Many states have laws prohibiting guns at schools and other locations often used for voting, but only some states, including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, and Texas, explicitly ban firearms at voting locations.

The US Supreme Court has upheld states' rights to restrict firearms at election sites, and recent surveys by the Brennan Center indicate widespread public support across party lines for firearm restrictions near polling locations.

Despite a lack of uniform laws, some states with high gun ownership rates have long-standing prohibitions on firearms at voting venues.

For instance, Georgia had restricted guns at elections since 1874, when the state’s Supreme Court ruled that carrying arms at elections "is a thing so improper in itself, so shocking to all sense of propriety, so wholly useless and full of evil."

History of violence in US elections

The US has witnessed a disturbing trend toward violence in connection with election outcomes.

Following the 2020 election, armed men gathered outside vote tabulation centres in states like Arizona and Nevada, intimidating election workers.

In Detroit, demonstrators banged on the windows of the TFC Center, where votes were being counted, while in Philadelphia, police arrested two armed individuals who travelled from out of state.

The Capitol riot two months later, a violent attack that sought to halt Congress’s certification of Joe Biden’s victory, further underscored the rising intensity of threats surrounding election processes.

Public confidence in fair election

Adding to the urgency, a significant divide remains in public confidence in election security.

According to a Pew Research Center survey, 90 percent of voters supporting Democratic candidate Kamala Harris express confidence in the fairness of election administration, whereas only 57 percent of Donald Trump’s supporters share this sentiment.

These partisan views are also evident in perceptions of mail-in ballot security, with Trump supporters showing markedly lower trust.

As the November election approaches, the unprecedented scale of the security response underscores the gravity of the risks facing US democracy.

With additional scrutiny on poll watchers, bolstered security measures at polling locations, and federal coordination, officials are striving to protect the sanctity of the election process.