Could Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel lead to a wider regional war?

Following muted response to Israel's attacks on Gaza, Lebanon and top Iranian officials over the past year, Tehran hit back on Tuesday by launching nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv. The limited air strikes focused on military targets, and no one in Israel was killed in the attack.

But the image of ballistic missiles raining down on the country, sending residents scurrying to bomb shelters, shocked many people around the world, especially because Israel's much-touted Iron Dome defence system failed to shoot down all of the rockets in time.

Though United States President Joe Biden urged Prime Minister Netanyahu to "take the win," Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said there would be "consequences," for the attack, adding, "We have plans, and we will act in the time and place we decide."

Some analysts say what happens next in the region depends on Israel, as Iran has warned any further aggression would be greeted in kind.

Speaking to TRT World, journalist and Middle East analyst Rami Khouri said "At this stage we can’t predict whether this is part of a wider assault" planned by Iran. Though a recent statement from officials seems to indicate otherwise.

On X, Iran's mission to the United Nations said the strikes were in response to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon over the weekend, calling the attack a "legal, rational and legitimate response."

“They may strike again, but it’s uncertain. The case may be closed right now, but you never know what the Israelis will do next," Khouri added.

'Escalation after escalation'

For Iran, the attack was a "face saving measure" following the Netanyahu government’s "harassment, militarily and politically in the last few months," said contemporary history and Middle East politics professor at Qatar University Mahjoob Zweiri.

Speaking to TRT World, he added, "I think the Israeli side will take some time to evaluate the impact of this on Israel before they make any kind of actions or any response."

With regards to further escalation, Zweiri said the future looks uncertain.

"There is no serious plan to stop this war. I don't see any horizon for stability."

He added that Netanyahu's "political survival is linked to this war. And for Iran, they need to hold onto their image as the Islamic Republic regime - it’s vital for their survival. Both sides now have to continue on this until someone basically is defeated" or "unless a power comes in and convinces both sides to stop."

When asked if other neighbouring countries could be pulled into the conflict, Zweiri said that's already happened. "Lebanon and Yemen are already involved."

Indeed, after more than a week of bombing that killed 1,000 people in Lebanon and injured and displaced countless others, Israel invaded the southern part of the country this week, sending ground troops after what it said were Hezbollah targets.

UN secretary general Antonio Guterres condemned Israel's actions in Lebanon and Iran's response, calling it "escalation after escalation" and saying, "This must stop. We absolutely need a cease-fire."

Hezbollah stepped up its rocket fire attacks on Israel when the war on Gaza began a year ago out of solidarity with Palestinians. Since then, more than 42,000 people in Gaza have been killed, mostly women and children, by Israeli airstrikes and other attacks.

Israel and Hezbollah traded attacks earlier this year as well. In April, an Israeli strike killed several leaders of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in Damascus, Syria. Iran then attacked Israel with more than 300 drones and missiles, but nearly all were intercepted.