Does US-Houthi clash mark the beginning of a regional war?

Global fears about the possibility of a regional war have grown as US-Houthi clashes near the Red Sea’s critical Bab el Mandeb Strait show no sign of abating. Both sides continue to threaten and target each other.

On Wednesday night, the United States launched a barrage of strikes on Houthi targets for attacking ships in the Red Sea, most recently the US-owned vessel M/V Genco Picardy.

Until now, the United States has hit the Houthi targets four times. A top official of the Iran-backed Yemeni group told TRT World on Wednesday that the Houthis have a strong motivation to maintain their attacks on Israel-linked shipping vessels, including US-flagged ships, due to the Gaza war. The same day the US administration also re-designated the Houthis as a terror group.

While US-Houthi tensions have elicited concerns across the Middle East about the Gaza war turning into a regional conflict, Ghoncheh Tazmini, author of Power Couple: Russian-Iranian Alignment in the Middle East, assesses the current tensions as “a tit-for-tat situation.”

“The recent US/UK strikes are purportedly aimed at diminishing Houthi military capabilities to ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and minimise disruptions to global trade. In this context, the West-led strikes are inherently limited. Houthi retaliation is unlikely to escalate into a regional conflagration,” Tazmini tells TRT World.

The Red Sea route accounts for 12 percent of worldwide trade with an estimated $1 trillion in goods annually.

Tal Beeri, a Middle East expert and the head of Israeli think tank Alma Center Research Department, has a similar take. “In my opinion, the activity of the United States and the United Kingdom will not cause a regional conflict. The main trigger for a regional flare-up is a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah,” Beeri tells TRT World.

Like the Red Sea situation, there are few good signs on the Hezbollah-Israel front. Tel Aviv has moved some of its troops from Gaza for an alleged attack on the Lebanese group with which it has exchanged fire since the Hamas’ October 7 attack. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has already warned that the group is ready for “unrestricted warfare.”

Regional war already?

After the Israeli assassination of Salel al Arouri, a top Hamas leader, in Beirut, some feared that a regional war might be at the gate with Hezbollah preparing to retaliate against Tel Aviv.

“Hezbollah does not need an event like this as a reason to join the war. They will calculate whether Israel has the capability and capacity to destroy Hezbollah and remove southern Lebanon from Hezbollah's control,” Edward Erickson, a leading American military analyst, tells TRT World.

But the Houthis, a large tribal alliance that controls parts of Yemen’s Red Sea coast including the country’s capital Sanaa, might be as prone to turn the Gaza war into a regional conflict as Hezbollah. With its recent acts against Israel and Red Sea’s shipping lanes, the Yemeni group has proven that it could be quite unpredictable.

“After enduring 8-9 years of bombardment by the Saudi-led pro-government coalition, the war-weary Houthis, known for their battle-hardened stance and resistance narrative, are unlikely to stay passive in the face of recent developments,” says Tazmini.

The Houthis are also part of the Iran-affiliated "Axis of Resistance", including Iraqi Shia groups, the Assad regime and Lebanon's Hezbollah. Many senior American officials believe that Tehran “aided and abetted” the Red Sea crisis by backing the Yemeni group with technological and intelligence support.

In addition to West-Houthi tensions, Tehran has also escalated conflicts on fronts from Pakistan to Iraq and Syria, striking allegedly anti-Iran targets in Muslim-majority countries.

"It should not be misleading to see that what happened in the Red Sea, Syria, and Iraq foreshadows that the spiral of war in Gaza will gradually turn into a bigger maelstrom," said Hakan Fidan, the Turkish foreign minister on January 16.

“Although recent events in Yemen, Syria and Iraq (Erbil) suggest that we are perilously inching towards regional war, this is something that most states and political groups will try to avoid, including Iran-backed groups and militias,” says Tazmini.

Like the 2019 tensions between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz that “remained confined and simmered down”, the Western powers will now do everything to avoid a regional conflict that can lead to a major breakdown in global trade, says Tazmini.

“Western European powers and the United States, aware of the potential economic damage to the European economy and already impacted by the Ukraine war, are determined to avert such a breakdown. Therefore, the imperative to safeguard international trade acts as a deterrent against an all-out regional conflict,” she says.

Warnings from regional capitals

The Western alliance’s ongoing confrontation with the Houthis, which control a crucial part of Yemen near the Red Sea’s critical Bab el Mandeb Strait, has hit a nerve across the turbulent Middle East mired by civil strife and bloody wars between Israel and Arab states.

Last week’s US-UK joint attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen were a reminder that the Gaza war has much potential to spread to other areas.

The United States has recently formed a multinational force to secure Red Sea shipping, declaring its aim was to launch attacks against the Houthis.

But after last week’s attacks launched by the US coalition forces, the Saudis have expressed concerns that the West needs to understand the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are related to what Israel is doing in Gaza.

Qatar, another Gulf power, voiced a similar view to the Saudis, saying that in order to address the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, the West needs to put enough pressure over Israel to end its war on Gaza.

Türkiye also warned the US-led alliance that its military actions could turn the Red Sea into “a sea of blood”, crediting the Houthis for their anti-Israeli stance.

"We receive information from various sources that the Houthis have made a very successful defence, provided a successful response, against both the US and the UK," said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week.