Explained: How an old power struggle erupted in deadly Sudan violence

The ongoing conflict between Sudan’s regular army and a powerful paramilitary force after long-running bitter brinkmanship has led to the deaths of nearly 100 civilians and hundreds more being injured. 

The tensions between the armed forces chief, Gen. Abdel Fattah al Burhan, and the head of the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group (RSF), Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, erupted into an unprecedented battle on Saturday for control of the resource-rich nation of more than 46 million people.

Their jostling for power erupted into violence, both in the capital Khartoum and other cities across Sudan, with deafening explosions, air strikes, artillery fire and intense gunfire in densely packed neighbourhoods.

Both men, each with tens of thousands of troops deployed just in the capital of Khartoum, vowed not to negotiate or ceasefire, despite mounting global diplomatic pressure. 

The conflict is the result of a power struggle between the two rival generals who orchestrated a coup in October 2021 and seized power. 

Army chief al Burhan and Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemeti, accused each other of starting the fight, and both have made claims they control key sites.

Here is what we know so far about the conflict:

How rivalry turned into conflict

In October 2021, Burhan and Dagalo together orchestrated a coup, upending a fragile transition to civilian rule that had been started after the 2019 ouster of Omar al Bashir.

The armed forces and the RSF signed a preliminary deal in December, but the final agreement was difficult to reach due to tensions between the two sides. 

A key dispute was over how the RSF would be integrated into the military and who would have ultimate control over fighters and weapons.

Burhan, a career soldier from northern Sudan who rose the ranks under the three-decade rule of now-jailed Bashir, took the top job.

Dagalo, from Darfur's pastoralist camel-herding Arab Rizeigat people, assumed responsibility as his number two.

But it was only ever "a marriage of convenience", according to independent researcher and policy analyst Hamid Khalafallah.

The rift between the two generals widened as Hemeti came to call the coup a "mistake" that failed to bring about change and invigorated remnants of Bashir's regime. 

For Alan Boswell, Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group, Dagalo saw in the agreement an opportunity to become "more autonomous from the military" and enact "very large political ambitions".

However, this shift in power ratcheted up tensions between Burhan and Hemeti and ended up in armed conflict rather than the heated debate around the table, according to Kholood Khair, founder of the Khartoum-based Confluence Advisory think-tank.

What is the RSF?

The RSF was created in 2013 by Janjaweed fighters who were accused of committing war crimes against non-Arab ethnic minorities in the western Darfur region a decade earlier. 

The heavily-armed militia was deployed alongside regular Sudanese forces in the civil war in Yemen in 2015 as part of the Saudi-led coalition, which helped boost Dagalo's profile abroad. 

According to experts, the force has also been involved in the conflict in neighbouring Libya.

The RSF has been accused of more atrocities, in particular, as part of a security crackdown after the ouster of Bashir, when the violent dispersal of a Khartoum sit-in in June 2019  killed at least 128 people.

"The RSF has continued to grow stronger since 2019," Boswell adds.

Foreign actors and resources at stake

During Omar al Bashir's rule, Russia was the dominant force in Sudan, with a deal to build a naval base on the country's Red Sea coast. 

After Bashir's ouster, the US and European nations began competing with Russia for influence in Sudan, which is rich in natural resources, including gold but has been mired in civil conflicts and military coups. 

Russia's Wagner mercenary outfit has also made inroads in the country.

 Sudan's military and RSF have close ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE and have fought alongside the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen's civil war. The military controls most of the country's economy, while the RSF runs major gold mining areas, a key source of income.

Egypt also has deep ties with Sudan's military, with the two armies regularly conducting war games. 

Analysts suggest that Dagalo is trying to whitewash the reputation of his paramilitary force, which began as brutal militias implicated in atrocities in the Darfur conflict.

What next?

According to experts, the conflict between the two generals is an existential power struggle on both sides, and both see the conflict as a very zero-sum game. 

The longer they battle it out in city streets, the higher the civilian toll climbs, and the harder it will be for either general to rule over the wreckage. 

"Both sides are strong enough that any war between them will be extremely costly, deadly and long," says Boswell, adding that even with a partial victory for either side in Khartoum, "war will continue elsewhere in the country", dividing up Sudan into strongholds.

READ MORE: UN chief demands justice for staff deaths as fighting rages in Sudan