Explained: Why Putin is threatening to nuke even non-nuclear states

Russian President Vladimir Putin has doubled down on his warnings about the potential use of nuclear weapons against its “enemies”, signalling a radical shift in Moscow’s nuclear doctrine as the war in Ukraine drags on.

During a meeting with senior officials this week, the Russian president announced that Russia could expand its nuclear response policy to cover attacks involving Western-backed conventional weapons.

The escalation comes as Ukraine seeks approval to use long-range missiles from Western allies.

Earlier in the week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy unveiled his much-anticipated "victory plan" to US President Joe Biden during a meeting at the White House on September 26.

The plan aims to enhance Ukraine's military capabilities, thereby providing the country with a strategic advantage, which it hopes will compel Putin into a peace agreement.

The announcement of the plan came just days before Putin's threat of using nuclear weapons.

Putin's new stance suggests that Russia may treat an attack by a non-nuclear state, such as Ukraine, as a "joint attack" if it is supported by a nuclear-armed country.

He implied that any such aggression could justify a nuclear response, marking a significant escalation in rhetoric.

"Aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, would be considered a joint attack on the Russian Federation," Putin declared.

These remarks follow ongoing discussions between Kiev and Western nations about providing long-range missiles capable of striking deep into Russian territory.

Zelenskyy has been pressing for the use of British-made Storm Shadow and US-made ATACMS missiles, but the US has been hesitant to approve such a move.

Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy's chief of staff, responded strongly to Putin's threats, accusing Russia of resorting to "nuclear blackmail" as it runs out of conventional means to intimidate Ukraine and its allies.

These developments come as Ukraine claims that Russia is planning to target several of its nuclear power plants, an allegation Zelenskyy raised during a recent address to the UN Security Council.

Putin's warnings are also a signal to NATO, especially as the US, UK, and France deliberate whether to approve Ukraine's use of Western missiles against Russian military installations.

Russia's nuclear doctrine, last updated in 2020, currently allows for the use of nuclear weapons if the state is critically threatened by a conventional attack.

The proposed changes would lower the threshold for deploying nuclear arms, possibly extending protection to allies like Belarus.

While the Kremlin has yet to formalise these amendments, experts believe this shift marks one of the clearest threats to use nuclear weapons since Russia sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022.

In June, Putin had already warned Europe about Russia's overwhelming superiority in tactical nuclear weapons, noting that European nations are largely defenceless without a robust early warning system.

This latest threat underscores Moscow's intent to leverage its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent amid the growing involvement of NATO countries in the Ukraine conflict.

Despite Putin's escalating threats, Ukrainian officials have remained defiant.

Zelenskyy recently suggested that the war could end sooner than many expect, but Russian officials have dismissed such optimism.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated that Moscow will continue to pursue victory, insisting that the conflict was instigated by the West.

The Kremlin's position remains unchanged: the war will only conclude once Russia's objectives are fully achieved.