Five reasons why Trump won the 2024 US presidential election

Americans have chosen to send Donald Trump back to the White House to govern their country, despite the weight of a felony conviction and his controversial role in the Capitol events following his 2020 defeat.

So, how did Trump pull it off?

To many, the 78-year-old Republican candidate capitalised on economic uncertainty and growing concerns over increased immigration and border issues, appealing to shifts in demographics.

Nevertheless, it is fair to note that, while November 5 was expected to yield a tight race, Trump’s path to victory emerged more swiftly than anticipated, quickly placing him near the 270 Electoral College votes needed for a win.

Here’s a look at five key factors that led to his victory.

“It’s the economy, stupid” —even among Latino voters

Economic concerns weighed heavily on voters this election, with 75% describing the economy as being in poor condition despite positive growth indicators according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released in October.

Many voters felt a disconnect between the reported economic progress and their lived experiences, with the cost of living significantly increasing in recent years.

Trump capitalised on this frustration, frequently blaming Harris and Biden for what he presented as a failed economy and portraying the administration as out of touch with the challenges facing everyday Americans.

During a speech in October, Trump promised that if he is re-elected, “inflation will vanish completely.”

He also pledged that under his administration, energy and electricity prices would be slashed by at least half within “18 months max,” tackling a key concern of voters burdened by rising costs fuelled by inflation.

Immigration as a central focus

Trump held onto immigration, a focal point of his campaign, as he did four years ago, rallying voters with strong messages about border security. He particularly focussed on the US-Mexico border, where he said he’d limit access to asylum seekers.

“How about allowing people to come through an open border, 13,000 of which were murderers? Many of them murdered far more than one person,” he said during a speech in October. “And they’re now happily living in the United States. You know, now a murderer — I believe this: it’s in their genes. And we got a lot of bad genes in our country right now. Then you had 425,000 people come into our country that shouldn’t be here that are criminals.”

This cycle, voters appeared more inclined toward hardline immigration policies compared to four years ago, as reported by the Associated Press. Approximately 40% of voters expressed that immigrants in the US without legal status should be deported to their home countries, up from 30% in 2020.

Although a majority of voters still supported offering a legal pathway to immigrants living in the US without documentation, that percentage has declined since 2020.

While these topics might at first sight seem unlikely to attract Latino voters, many of whom come from immigrant backgrounds, his campaign showed surprising success with this demographic.

Nationally, Trump's support among Latino male voters rose by 18 percentage points. He also gained 11 points among Latino voters in Nevada and 4 points in Arizona.

“Although it may be surprising to some people, Latinos not only identify as an ethnic group, but also as Americans,” noted US political website, The Hill.

Economic frustrations played a major role in this turnout. For many Latino voters, rising prices and economic struggles under the Biden-Harris administration outweighed other concerns, according to NBC.

Transgender issues

Trump’s team invested over $65 million in an anti-transgender ad campaign, particularly spotlighting cases of transgender athletes competing in women’s sports.

He pledged to “protect women’s sports” by banning transgenders from competing.

This message struck a particular chord especially with conservative-leaning voters in a climate where controversies about transgender individuals competing in women's sports was still fresh in public memory —many viewing such incidents as symbolic of a “woke” agenda gone too far.

In 2022, Lia Thomas had ignited widespread debate as a transgender swimmer who participated in the University of Pennsylvania’s women’s swim team.

“We will keep men out of women’s sports,” Trump said at a rally in late September, noting his administration would ensure what he described as “transgender insanity” would be kept out of US schools.

Anti-genocide sentiment

The Biden administration's support for Israel during the Gaza war alienated many Arab-American voters, particularly in swing states like Michigan.

Traditionally Democratic, this community expressed dissatisfaction with the administration's stance, leading some to consider alternative candidates.

For instance, Bill Bazzi, the Arab and Muslim mayor of Dearborn Heights, Michigan, endorsed Trump, citing discontent with the current administration's handling of Israel’s war on Gaza as well as economic concerns.

The disillusionment with the Democratic Party's position on Gaza also led some voters to support third-party candidates. Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, attracted disaffected Arab-American voters, potentially reducing the Democratic vote share.

A sharp business acumen

Trump’s recent victory was significant as it came despite his legal challenges and multiple convictions — a reflection of his continued influence and ability to resonate with a large segment of the electorate.

Throughout his campaign, Trump consistently framed himself as the target of a “witch hunt,” asserting that legal cases and investigations against him were politically motivated rather than valid inquiries.

Following his indictment on charges of attempting to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia, Trump turned himself in to the Fulton County Jail in August 2023, where he became the first US president in history to have his mugshot taken.

The Trump campaign was quick to seize on the image, transforming it into a key fundraising and branding tool. Merchandise such as T-shirts, mugs, and can coolers featuring the mugshot and slogans like "Never Surrender" became popular among his base.

In short, everything worked to the advantage of Trump, who emerged as the “victim” of a “corrupt” political, legal, and media establishment bent on undermining him.

“We overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible,” he declared to supporters during his speech in the early hours following election day, describing his win as “a magnificent victory for the American people.”