French evolution: Is Macron veering towards a far-right government?

French President Emmanuel Macron has long portrayed himself and his centrist bloc as the only antithesis to the far-right, led by Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN), the third-biggest party in the parliament.

But last week, Macron met Le Pen and 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, the far-right party’s official leader, to discuss their possible participation in a government that excludes the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alliance, the biggest parliamentary bloc in Paris.

This time around, Macron portrayed the NFP as a threat to France's “institutional stability,” dismissing the idea of a leftist prime minister forming a future government. The French president argued that centrists and right-wing groups, including RN, would “censor” the leftist group.

Ironically, it was the leftists who had allied with Macron’s centrists – the second-biggest bloc in the National Assembly – in the snap parliamentary elections earlier this year to block the far-right’s ascendancy to power.

For the record, the support of Macron’s lawmakers is good enough for the NFP to form a government.

But Macron’s snub to Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the head of the anti-establishment leftist party France Unbowed (LFI) and a leading figure in the NFP, has signalled the French president’s preference for the far-right over the leftist bloc, according to Murat Yigit, a political scientist at the National Defence University in Istanbul.

“Macron did not like the election results,” which the newly-formed NFP surprisingly won, says Yigit. Macron, himself, oddly, called snap elections in June, using his constitutional authority after the centrist bloc lost heavily against the RN in the EU parliamentary elections in May.

Since 2017, Macron has used a kind of Machiavellian tactic that if people did not vote for him and his centrists, the far-right would come to power, but after the snap election, he observed that his main political strategy based on this fear tactic is not working anymore because his party’s fortunes have dramatically declined, Yigit tells TRT World.

Macron’s political roots are in leftist politics, and his party still appeals to many left-minded voters, says Yigit.

“Macron fears that if he allows a leftist government to be formed, it can take his base away from him,” says the political scientist. He sees this as “a bigger risk to his political fortune” than far-right participation in a future government.

After Macron publicly rejected Melenchon’s presence in any government, the leftist leader and his allies have called for protests against the French president.

Many have fiercely criticised Macron’s rejection of a potential prime minister from the largest bloc in parliament as a clear sign of defying public will, a key component of Western democratic rule. On Saturday, the LFI proposed to impeach Macron due to his defiance against the country’s democratic will.

Melenchon, who came a close third in the last presidential election but nearly missed qualification for the second round, also wants to be NPF’s presidential candidate in 2027, adds Yigit.

‘Divide and rule’

Macron’s aversion to the left, however, does not encompass the entire bloc as he is ready to cooperate with Melenchon’s Socialist allies, apparently another tactic to break up his opponents, according to experts.

“In fact, the French president would like to divide the “Nouveau Front populaire” (NFP) in order to rally the socialists, at least the social-democrats,” says Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, a French professor of history-geography and a researcher in geopolitics in the Thomas More Institute.

“Anyway, he cannot accept a far-left program supported by a minority of citizens,” Mongrenier tells TRT World.

But the French analyst also thinks that the French president’s “space for maneuver is short”, suggesting that Macron employs tactics rather than a solid strategy to defeat his enemies.

Macron recently met Bernard Cazeneuve, a former centre-left prime minister under ex-president Francois Hollande, who left the Socialist Party to protest its alliance with Melenchon’s LFI in 2022. Many see Cazeneuve as a front-runner for the prime minister post, having the potential to divide the leftist bloc.

But the NPR does not have any appetite for Cazeneuve's possible government. "I don't give him a chance. He belongs to the old world," said Mathilde Panot, a leading member of the LFI.

Manuel Bompard, another top party official, pledged a vote for “no confidence in any government not led by Lucie Castets", who is the LFI’s prime ministerial candidate.

Political scenarios

Mongrenier assesses that the best possible government formation scenario might involve “a prime minister who would come from the social democracy,” referring to potential candidates like Cazeneuve.

This scenario might be ensured by the support from right-wing parties like Les Républicains, which backs but does not join the cabinet, and the RN’s “benign neglect policy”, which would use a “no censure motion” against the government.

“But all of that is very uncertain. The more the political leaders think of the next presidential election and, the more they don’t want to be compromised with Macron, already seen as a lame duck. The situation looks like a stalemate,” says Mongrenier.

Yigit describes Mongrenier’s potential scenario as a technocratic government but sees this option among the likeliest outcomes.

Stuck between the far-right and the leftist bloc, Macron might have signalled a “let’s try a far-right government” with his meeting with Le Pen, Yigit says.

Before the election, some analysts suggested that Macron called the snap election to trap the far-right with an unexpected governance for which they were not ready.

“This would obviously be a risky decision,” he says, adding that Macron needs “cohabitation” with either a left-leaning government or far-right cabinet, referring to a French political term to define a situation where the president has to go along with a government led by opposition political parties.

The French parliament has to approve the country’s budget by early October, which also means that Macron is running out of time to name a prime minister. He can not call another snap election either before a year passes, according to the constitution.

“Managing daily political business will not be enough to meet the challenge. Soon, it will be the critical juncture, which the ancient Greeks referred to as ‘Kaïros’,” says Mongrenier, referring to the approaching deadline on the vote for the public budget.