Gaza war brings Russia and Iran closer than ever

Russia and Iran have been outliers in the US-led global order and both nations have had to deal with their own share of troubles for their defiance to American dominance.

The two countries are nearly on the same page when it comes to navigating different regional conflicts, from Ukraine to Syria and Afghanistan.

The ongoing war waged by Israel on Gaza reveals the two countries have narrowed down their differences as their stance on one of the oldest conflicts of the Middle East is almost identical.

While the West has given unconditional support to Israel against Palestinian resistance group Hamas, both Russia and Iran have criticised Tel Aviv’s indiscriminate attacks on Palestinians, calling for an immediate ceasefire.

On Monday, the Russian foreign ministry announced that Moscow and Tehran are on the verge of signing a "major new interstate agreement" between the two states, signalling that the two countries are on the way of becoming not only tactical but also strategic partners.

The Russian announcement has unnerved Washington. US national security spokesman John Kirby was quick to point out what he described as "clearly a growing relationship in the defense realm" between Moscow and Tehran.

Kamran Gasanov, a political analyst at Russian International Affairs Council, a Moscow-based think-tank, says that following the Gaza carnage “relations between Russia and Iran have become stronger than ever”.

“Even during the Syrian military campaign, when Russia and Iran acted as a united front as Assad's allies, there were gaps. The Russian Foreign Ministry once said that Iran is a partner, but not an ally. Also, Russia did not stop Israel from bombing Iranian proxies in southern Syria,” Gasanov tells TRT World.

But with the Gaza war “everything has changed” as both countries have felt that they need each other more than ever in many areas from the Middle East to Ukraine, says Gasanov.

Gaza distracts the Western focus on Ukraine

The Gaza war “puts pressure on NATO” which under US leadership that backs Israel, relieving Russia from the Western alliance’s pressure tactics on Ukraine, according to the Russian analyst. This was also pointed out by Khaled Meshaal, a top Hamas official, who said that Moscow has benefited from the October 7 attack.

Meshaal also said that Hamas, which is part of Iran’s axis of resistance including Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis, seeks “cooperation with great powers China and Russia.”

On the other hand, Iran needs Russia because it is under pressure from the EU and the US due to its nuclear program and internal politics, says Gasanov, adding that events in Gaza are widening the fault lines between Iran and the West.

Beyond both states’ dependence on each other in various arenas and their common priorities, there is also an ideological convergence between the two states, sharing a similar negative worldview on the nature of the West-led international order, according to Ghoncheh Tazmini, a visiting fellow at the Middle East Centre, LSE.

“Russia, in particular, challenges the US-led Atlanticist ideological and power systems, and in this pursuit, Iran is a critical partner,” Tazmini wrote in 2021.

“Both states oppose the idea of a single state or constellation of states (an order) as being able to impose normative values and power structures as universal. Instead, Moscow and Tehran subscribe to a more pluralistic vision of the international order, favouring sovereign internationalism over liberal interventionism,” she added.

As a result, Tazmini believes that this ideological brotherhood alongside other geopolitical factors will make the Russian-Iranian alignment “an enduring feature of the Middle Eastern political landscape.”

A military pact?

Despite increasing ties, Gasanov does not expect that the Russia-Iran rapprochement has reached a level where an official military alliance will be formed.

“Russia is not ready to defend Iran in the event of a Western attack, and Iran is not ready to fight for Russia in Ukraine,” he says. “But military rapprochement is obvious. This could be military exercises, weapons supplies, information exchange, and so on.”

Yasar Sari, an expert at Haydar Aliyev Eurasian Research Center of Ibn Haldun University, has a similar view to Gasanov. A military pact between Iran and Russia requires acting together at every point, which is geopolitically impossible because both countries have their own concepts of strategic autonomy, according to Sari.

Sari exemplifies his point with Ukraine and Gaza. “Russia is the primary actor in Ukraine but not Iran. In Gaza, Russia is not the primary actor, but Iran is close to the first actors. They will not want to engage in conflict areas that they cannot directly control,” Sari tells TRT World.

“As a result, I don't expect a full-fledged military pact to be formed between them. However, they can form an anti-Western political alliance including China. The real struggle may be in that direction,” says the academic.

There is likely to be much closer defence ties between Russia, Iran and China, which will be more inclined towards a defensive pact against possible US-led or inspired military action against them, says Gregory Simons, an independent Sweden-based writer and analyst.

“It will first and foremost be defensive and not offensive in nature as these three countries are heavily targeted by US hybrid warfare. Israel will be of lesser concern for Russia, unless it is reckless enough to attack Iran directly. Under Netanyahu this scenario cannot be discounted completely,” Simons tells TRT World.

Rules of Russian-Iranian alignment

Both Iran and Russia want to see the US out of the Middle East just like it happened in Afghanistan, says Esref Yalinkilicli, a formerly Moscow-based Eurasia expert. “Iran wants Russia to be proactive in both Syria and Lebanon as well as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” Yalinkilicli tells TRT World.

Russia also attaches great importance to the partnership of developing military technology with Iran, says Yalinkilicli. According to recent reports, Tehran is constructing a plant for Iranian drone production in Russia. Russia has reportedly used Iranian drones in its offensive against Ukraine. Last month, both countries finalised a deal for Moscow to provide Tehran with Su-35 fighter jets, Mi-28 attack helicopters and Yak-130 pilot training aircraft.

Russia’s growing ties with Iran has angered Israeli leadership. Last week, Israel’s hardliner Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talked to Russian leader Vladimir Putin on the phone expressing his "robust disapproval" of Moscow's "dangerous" cooperation with Iran.

But Yalinkilicli doubts that Russia-Iran cooperation can target Israel. “While Iran supports Russia to make the US and Western engagement in the Middle East a difficult matter, I doubt this will actually turn into a Russian-Iranian partnership against Israel,” he says.

Yalinkilicli also draws attention to the fact that Russia wants to engage not only a Shia-majority state like Iran but also with regional powers that have predominantly Sunni Muslim populations, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt to increase its influence across the Middle East.

“Adopting an Israeli policy through Iran would be an adventure for Russia. Challenging the West through Iran would also be an adventure for Russia,” says the analyst.