Gaza will ‘remake or break’ the UN - speakers at Antalya Diplomacy Forum

ANTALYA – In a packed room on the first day of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, a roundtable debate between foreign policy analysts, former diplomats and advisors to various governments underscored the urgent need for a new guarantorship mechanism to address protracted and bloody conflicts, such as the one between Israel and Palestine.

The experts in attendance were in consensus that Gaza will either “remake or break” the United Nations (UN), with many forecasting a deadly spillover effect of the ongoing Israeli aggression that has been drawing in major global powers.

Explaining why the current Gaza war will be detrimental to the future of the UN, one of the forum panellists, Hesham Youssef, a former Egyptian diplomat, told TRT World that “there is something very interesting happening in Washington today”.

“As you know, the matters of foreign affairs are [usually] not instrumental and decisive in the United States. [But] there have been a number of reports recently that the situation in Gaza may influence the outcome of the upcoming United States elections,” Youssef said.

“The United States entered the war in Afghanistan, entered the war in Iraq, and that did not affect the election process in a significant manner. But the [current] war in Gaza may influence the outcome of the United States elections”.

Amid anti-war protests and growing pro-Palestine solidarity among American citizens, US President Joe Biden is facing a tough challenge in seeking to overcome the “Democratic rebellion” over his mishandling of the Gaza crisis.

Several independent reports suggest that his campaign has failed to kick off with zest and enthusiasm – due, in part, to mounting criticism among Democrats dismayed by his stance on Israel’s Gaza offensive. Activists in Michigan – a state that traditionally leans Democratic in presidential elections – asked people to engage in a protest vote by withdrawing their support for Biden during the Democratic primaries and to vote “uncommitted” instead. They were hoping for 10,000 “uncommitted” ballots, but 100,000 voters ended up answering their call – a stark indication that Biden’s staunch support for Israel may cost him the state.

Youssef thinks that there are evolving dynamics in the US prompted by the Gaza war that may have a bigger impact on US-Israel relations than one might imagine – including as a result of the three draft resolutions in the UN Security Council calling for a ceasefire in Gaza that were vetoed by the US.

Speaking to TRT World at the Forum, another analyst, Dr. Clayton E Swisher, said that Israel’s unruly behaviour – with full US support and complicity – can be addressed by implementing NATO’s guarantor option.

“Türkiye has an excellent standing to demand a return of the UN and a Trusteeship model for Gaza and the West Bank – as was done in the case of East Timor – and as a NATO member, to advocate internally for its use in guaranteeing security in the Holy Land,” Swisher said while debating the urgent need of guarantors in the Israel-Palestine conflict.

In view of the US’s unwillingness to take tough action against Israel, Swisher said that the UN still stands a chance to stay relevant if a coalition of friendly allies mounts pressure on Washington and pushes for a policy change that can open a window for third-party-led diplomatic efforts to initiate a meaningful dialogue between Israel and Palestine.

“The fact remains that America has proven it can’t go alone; it’s captured by domestic pro-Israel politics – especially now in an election year – and it requires a broader coalition to share the burden,” he said, adding that the diplomatic community must explore the option of security guarantorships that “might minimally satisfy all parties, including by deploying US peacekeeping forces, possibly reinforced by a NATO contingent.”

“It is not as crazy as it sounds”.