Georgia election: Why does it matter for both the West and Russia?

Georgia, a small country located just south of Russia, went through its parliamentary election last week, which witnessed the competition between the ruling party, which advocates to have good terms with Russia, and pro-Western parties.

The ruling Georgian Dream party secured a fourth term with 54 percent of the vote, while four pro-Western opposition parties collectively earned less than 40 percent. Opposition parties and President Salome Zourabichvili have disputed the results, alleging election rigging.

Washington and Brussels have accused Russia of interfering in Georgia’s elections, a claim the Kremlin denies, instead accusing the West of attempting “to influence the outcome of the vote.” While Russia has found Western accusations “absolutely unfounded”, US President Joe Biden was 'deeply alarmed' by the election results like its EU allies.

But why has the Georgian election drawn so much attention from both the West and Russia?

“Russia treats this region of the post Soviet Union countries as its own backyard and is doing everything in order to upgrade its influence in the South Caucasus,” says Valery Chechelashvili, Georgia’s former deputy foreign minister and past ambassador to Russia and Ukraine. He points to Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan - all three former Soviet republics - as focal points of Moscow’s strategic influence in the area.

“Why is Georgia important for Russia, particularly at the moment? Because it's a critical component of the East-West Transport and Communication Corridor,” says Chechelashvili to TRT World. The corridor could “eventually bring the rich natural resources of the Central Asian countries via trans Caspian future projects and through South Caucasus to European markets.”

Although Georgia is a small country with only $30 billion of GDP, its geopolitical and economic location is crucial, especially now, with Russia and Iran, two regional allies, facing heavy Western sanctions, says Chechelashvili, a member of the executive council of Georgian Strategic Analysis Center.

South Caucasus energy corridor

The corridor is designed to reduce Western dependence on Russian gas, potentially delivering significant political and economic setbacks to the Kremlin if fully realised.

Important infrastructure projects like the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline already connect the Caspian Sea with the Mediterranean through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Türkiye, enhancing energy independence in the region.

The main investors in these gas and oil pipeline infrastructure projects are major international corporations like BP, Standard Oil and others, says Chechelashvili adding that “the US and the EU have already invested billions of dollars in Georgia's macroeconomic stability and political future.”

The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railroad, linking the South Caucasian network through Türkiye to Europe’s railway system, has drawn significant attention in both the West and Russia, says Chechelashvili.

Georgia is essentially a transit state in all these infrastructure projects and its geographical location at the intersection of Europe and Asia makes it a crucial player for trade and in regional affairs, according to Konul de Moor, International Crisis Group’s consulting South Caucasus analyst.

“Its political alignment can shape wider geopolitical trends, particularly concerning NATO and EU expansion, holding a high importance for the West and Russia. Hence, elections in Georgia often reveal the divide between pro-Western parties, which seek closer ties with NATO and the EU, and pro-Russian parties, which favor stronger connections with Moscow,” she tells TRT World.

Is the Western influence decreasing?

Giorgi Badridze, a former Georgian ambassador to the UK and now a senior fellow at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, sees the recent election was a pivotal moment for both the West and Moscow - though Russia’s involvement was notably more assertive, he says.

“Maybe it is the case like it was in the 1990s and 2000s, when the West didn't quite grasp the strategic value of Georgia as a link that would connect it with Azerbaijan and the entire greater Caspian Sea region that could help the EU, for instance, diversify its energy imports to facilitate its energy security,” Badridze tells TRT World.

But Russia has always understood the strategic value of Azerbaijan and Georgia for the West and therefore it’s been trying to sever these connections, says Giorgio. He highlights Türkiye’s growing regional importance, which is “the only land connection for Georgia with the rest of the Western world”.

“I don’t think the Georgia election matters very much for the West,” says Matthew Bryza, a former US ambassador to Azerbaijan and a key architect of US Central Asia and South Caucasus policy in the early 2000s, almost confirming the observation of Badridze.

“Whether or not Georgia joins the EU or NATO really won't improve either organisation. The West, at least the US, has cared about Georgia because Russia wanted to dominate and reincorporated it into some sort of sphere of influence,” Bryza tells TRT World, noting the tension over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the breakaway regions backed by Moscow after the 2008 Russia-Georgia War.

According to Bryza, the West’s broader stance sees Georgia and any nation as having the right to chart its own course. In this view, the Georgian election is an internal matter, and Tiblisi is free to choose either a pro-Western or pro-Russian direction, he says.

Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, who also holds the prestigious EU Council presidency, recently travelled to Tbilisi and praised Georgia elections as "free and democratic". But both Chechelashvili and Badridze, the former Georgian diplomats, have serious doubts on the transparency of the election process.

The election commission rejects widespread irregularities adding that it used a US company system. "Irregularities happen everywhere, in every country," said Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, who leads the Georgian Dream party, during an interview with BBC.

"Of course we have to address these irregularities happening on the day of the election or before. But the general content of the elections was in line with legal principles and the principle of democratic elections," he added.

Throughout the election campaign, the ruling party, established by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, used billboard messages showing the ruins of Ukrainian cities as opposed to “the peaceful landscapes of Georgia” implying a stance of neutrality is a better choice.