Gulf countries grapple with declining birth rates as family dynamics shift

Reem Al Muftah is a busy 36-year-old Qatari working mother and wellness advocate juggling parenting her children with her busy career. The majority of childcare falls on herself and her husband, who manage parenting alongside their full time jobs.

While she and other women in her circle have three children, she sees others who have decided to stop at one or two.

Speaking to TRT World, Al Muftah joked, "I am personally not sure if I want more than three, but I feel that I am open to it, although I do get moments where I feel just one kid is perfect!"

It's not just many women in Qatar who feel this way.

Speaking to TRT World, Oman-based researcher of gender and politics Sumaya Al Wahaibi said falling birthrates have become a concern across the Gulf Corporation Countries (GCC).

"While the decline in birth rates is linked to socio-economic development, it can pose challenges, such as a shrinking workforce, an increased ageing population, and strains on the pension and healthcare systems. Therefore, the governments are actively considering interventions to address this issue," she said.

Al Muftah says that Qatari mothers today have more responsibilities than their mothers' generation, which had a clear demarcation between the roles of mother and father.

In past generations, while some Qatari women worked as teachers, doctors or civil servants, many tended to be stay-at-home mothers while their husbands went to work.

"I’m sure the number (of children) has decreased due to the responsibilities women have now. So many women are single households or divorced and that leads to having less kids after experiencing a 'not so great' experience. So, I believe marriage is a deterrent and it's safe to assume that marriage has decreased as well.”

Qatari women today are also more aware of the mental impact of having several children - and thus choose to have fewer kids, Al Muftah added.

Recent statistics from September 2023 by Qatar’s Planning and Statistics Authority show declining marriage rates among Qataris. Qatar measures its marriage rate as the number of married males or females aged 15 years and above per 1,000 people. The rate for females declined from 21.6 in 2016 to 17.1 in 2022.

A study carried out by the Doha International Family Institute shows that perceptions of marriage among unmarried Qatari women tend to be negative, leading them to delaying getting married.

Changing family structures

Al Muftah's perspective reflects a changing mindset about family structure in the GCC.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Oman are moving closer to the finish line for their National Visions (2030 for Saudi Arabia and Qatar, 2031 for the UAE, 2035 for Kuwait and 2040 for Oman).

But a quiet reproductive revolution is leading to a population slowdown that has forced these states to address a generational change in demographics.

A recent study published in January 2024 by Fayez Elessawy, professor of human and urban geography at Alexandria University, shows a sharp decline in the birth rates of GCC states, from 6.5 children per woman in 1995, to less than two children per woman in all GCC states except Saudi Arabia (2.4) and Oman (2.7).

The report shows an inverse relation between GCC countries' growth and development, and their birth rates.

According to North Carolina-based researcher Alainna Liloia, who specialises in women’s issues in Arab countries and previously lived in the Gulf, a major socio-economic factor contributing to this huge decline in birth rates is the increased education and employment of Gulf women.

"GCC governments are putting a lot of pressure on female citizens to contribute to social and economic development through a variety of state projects. At the same time, women face pressures from their own communities to maintain traditional domestic roles," Liloia told TRT World.

"As a result, we are seeing a rise in Gulf women choosing to delay marriage and motherhood so they can prioritise their education and careers."

'It’s not safe, it's not healthy'

After years of growth, Saudi Arabia is now experiencing a declining birth rate.

Speaking to TRT World, Riyadh-based Saudi Arabian professor and historian Hatoon Al-Fassi said that Shura Council members have been calling for population controls since 2015.

At the time, the rapid growth of the population, which was largely concentrated in cities, strained the infrastructure.

Al-Fassi said that as early as a decade ago, Saudi Arabia's religious scholars often encouraged couples to have more children.

"The religious advice and religious push that used to be given was towards families and society having more children." she added.

This sparked a debate among Shura members who said no, we have to control our population growth, Al-Fassi said. They said "it's not safe, it's not healthy for our development; for the future of Saudi Arabia. We have to plan things in a better way."

Changing social norms and rising costs of living are two major contributing factors for Saudi Arabia’s falling birth rate. Women are being encouraged to pursue higher education and in recent years, the job market has completely opened up to Saudi women.

This has led to women getting married at a later age and also delaying the age at which they start trying for children, Al-Fassi said. Al-Fassi herself had the first of her two children at the age of 36.

Last year, Saudi newspaper Okaz reported that the average age at which Saudi women get married is now 27 years old. Saudi sociology professor Abdulazia Al-Kaltham said that this trend of getting married later is one of the causes of the country’s falling fertility rate.

Modern Saudi families

Saudi women are a lot more aware of their options, and "of themselves and their bodies," Al Fassi said.

With just over 60 percent of the country’s population under 30 years old - with a similar case across the wider Gulf, in what is known as the "youth bulge" - many are choosing less traditional ways of living, she explained.

"Most of these women have jobs now and they want to have careers. This is a new development in the past 10 years. The job market is now without any limitation for women and more career women can be seen among this young population. I don’t think women want to waste their careers by having extra children. That will disturb the equation."

As the country’s economy continues to grow, living costs have risen and Saudi couples need to take these costs into consideration.

February 2024 saw the highest level of inflation in Saudi Arabia in six months. Food, rent, entertainment and education costs continue to climb, with costs rising by 10 percent for housing rents and 8.5 percent for utility bills in that month alone.

Year-over-year, inflation cooled slightly in March, though housing prices still increased another 10 percent.

Al-Fassi says that younger couples can no longer afford to build and pay the running costs of the large villas that their parents had, and modern Saudi couples want to send their children to private international schools.

A growing entertainment industry in the country means married couples need to budget for all of these extra "nice-to-haves" in order for their children to lead fulfilling, high quality lives. This has led to young married couples thinking carefully about family planning.

"More and more we are seeing new families go towards renting or buying flats that cannot accommodate more than two children. And this is related to the economic situation," she added. "We are booming but owning a home is still a big issue and even a couple who work can’t afford to have big houses anymore."

Domino effect

With rising living costs, if Gulf couples limit their families to two or three children and birth rates continue to decline in the long term, this puts GCC at risk of ageing populations, a phenomenon that countries such as Italy, Japan and South Korea are currently encountering.

GCC governments are already aware of these long-term implications. In 2020, UAE government members raised concerns about falling birth rates and the need for reforms and incentives such as financial help, increased maternity leave and easier access to childcare.

According to Muscat-based researcher Al Wahaibi, Oman has made recent strides in addressing its declining birth rate. In February, the first government fertility centre was opened at Al Wattayah Obstetrics and Gynaecology Complex in Muscat.

Al-Wahaibi said the centre has introduced several initiatives, including advocacy programmes for adolescent girls' education, improving maternal healthcare services, and providing easier access to family planning services and contraceptives.

Granting nationality

One possible remedy to the region’s falling birth rates is changing the way in which GCC states interpret the concept of nationality.

For the most part, GCC states grant nationality on the basis of the father. Rarely, a select few non-nationals are naturalised, such as athletes and prominent businessmen.

Except for the UAE, women married to non-nationals are unable to pass on their citizenship to their children, a law that women in the region have been calling to change for years. Al-Fassi said this needs to be addressed first.

In addition, there are hundreds of thousands of "bidoon" or stateless people living in GCC states who insist that they originate from the region, but were not granted nationality as they failed to register themselves in the 1960s and 1970s following GCC states' independence. This is another avenue through which national populations can be increased.

"The problem is GCC states are stuck because they have built so many new cities and new buildings and who will fill them?" Al-Fassi said.

“So, they are between this paradox of whether we should have this population, the 'real nationals,' or whether to expand by nationalising. I think nationalising is also a good idea, but they have to start with the children of national women married to non-nationals; this is one of the missing dots that all GCC states have."

The debate over who is a GCC citizen will also likely play a more prominent role in the future, researcher Liloia added.

"I think how GCC states choose to define national identity moving forward is a really important question, as multiculturalism already plays a huge role in the countries’ social landscapes," she said.