Haniyeh's assassination exposes old loopholes in Iran's security cover

Israel has long been able to carry out assassinations of key Iranian political and military figures, often with an apparent ease and typically without significant repercussions.

The killing of Hamas political bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran at a time when world leaders had gathered in the Iranian capital to witness the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian highlights the reach of Israeli intelligence.

Two states came to the brink of an all-out war in April when Iran sent dozens of drones and missiles into Israel in response to a deadly Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria.

Haniyeh and one of his guards were killed by an “airborne projectile” in a special residence for war veterans in Tehran’s north, Iranian media reported.

Experts are wondering if such a high-valued leader is not safe in Iran then who is.

“It seems that if Israel wanted to, it could also target Khamenei or other significant figures within Iran,” says Oral Toga, a researcher at the Iran Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM).

While the location from where the attack launched and other details remain unclear, and despite silence on part of the Israeli far-right government, Tel Aviv is the likely culprit, given its long history of killing people inside Iran.

Experts say that this incident not only highlights Iran's security vulnerabilities but also reveals the ineffectiveness of Tehran’s policy of deflecting criticism of its poor security.

Haniyeh arrived in Tehran on Tuesday, July 30, 2024. His last public appearance was with Iranian President Pezeshkian, just hours before his assassination.

There is widespread debate about whether the attack might embolden Israel to continue its attacks with impunity or potentially spark a broader regional or global conflict.

Toga attributes Israel’s bold attack to Iran’s inadequate technology, which can't provide the necessary security cover for Haniyeh.

Some Iranian reports suggest that Haniyeh was targeted by a Kamikaze drone. But Toga says the nature of the attack is likely to remain unclear for a few more days.

“If it was a Kamikaze drone, which has been used multiple times within Iran by Israel, it would suggest an intelligence failure due to (presence of) Mossad networks within Tehran rather than a technical weakness,” he tells TRT World.

“Iran might deny responsibility, arguing that if the radar failed to detect a missile, it’s not their fault. However, if a Kamikaze drone was involved, it would suggest that Mossad is able to operate freely within Iranian cities.”

Such a precision drone strike means Israel must have assets on the ground to pinpoint Haniyeh’s exact location.

The Secretary-General of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad was reportedly staying at the same location and remained unhurt. Experts who argue it was likely a drone note this and say that the survival of another person reduces the likelihood of a missile being used.

They assert that if a missile had been involved, it would likely have resulted in deaths of all those present there.

Sidestepping responsibility

Tel Aviv has focused on Tehran's nuclear programme for years, claiming Iran is clandestinely developing a nuclear bomb that poses a threat to its existence.

Over the years Israel blatantly assassinated Iran's nuclear scientists, engineers, and academics.

The incidents include the poisoning of Iran’s aerospace engineers, shootings of military colonels outside their homes, drone strikes on military and nuclear facilities, and cyberattacks on gas stations or maritime traffic.

In 2018, Mossad agents reportedly infiltrated a facility in Tehran and stole classified nuclear records. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu subsequently announced the discovery of hundreds of thousands of secret files, alleging they proved Iran's nuclear weapons plans.

In 2022, it was also allegedly reported that Mossad abducted a senior commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).

This year in April, an attack attributed to Israel targeted the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, resulting in the deaths of 13 Iranian officials, including senior military commanders.

Despite these repeated security breaches, including attacks on top officials and access to confidential documents, Iran has yet to significantly enhance its security measures or move beyond mere rhetorical responses.

Experts do not anticipate any deep security introspection even after Haniyeh’s assassination, considering its response in previous such incidents.

“Iran often hides behind various narratives or ignores incidents, even when they reveal the state’s vulnerabilities,” Toga notes.

He highlights that initial statements from Iranian officials regarding Haniyeh provided no details on how the attack occurred.

The Iranian state will likely seek to counter the perception of Iran as "unsafe" and stress that there was no negligence in the Haniyeh assassination, he says.

“Iran will likely take steps, at least rhetorically, to restore its image and reinforce its claim of being a protector to other actors in the Arab region.”

Targeting political solution

Haniyeh was among prominent Palestinian leaders on the hit-list of Israel, along with other members of Hamas political elite.

Over the past ten months, Israel has waged an indiscriminate war on Gaza, claiming its actions are directed solely at Hamas members. But Israel has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians, many of them women and children.

The assassination of Hamas's political bureau chief on the soil of a major regional rival suggests that Israel’s target may extend beyond Iran.

“The Israelis are so desperate to the extent of risking an all-out war in the region by carrying out this assassination in the heart of Tehran,” says British Palestinian academic and political activist Azzam Tamimi.

“But assassinations don’t kill the cause. They only fuel it,” he tells TRT World.

Hamas has labelled the assassination of its senior leader as a "grave escalation."

One of the group’s senior officials, Moussa Abu Marzouk, condemned the act as "cowardly" and warned that it "will not go unpunished."

While Tamimi acknowledges that predicting the next steps or reactions is difficult at this stage, he notes that the First World War was similarly triggered by an assassination.

“It remains to be seen whether the Iranians will be provoked into action since this is a blatant violation of their sovereignty and security.”