How Russia and China see escalating tensions between Hezbollah and Israel

While much of the West has chosen to stay muted to Israel’s barbaric pager and walkie-talkie attacks, China and Russia, the two leading anti-Western powers, have been vocal, condemning Tel Aviv’s provocations against Lebanon.

Tel Aviv’s attacks on communication devices were followed up by a bombing campaign on Hezbollah commanders in Beirut and other targets allegedly associated with the Lebanese group, which killed more than 500 people including 50 children, injuring scores of others.

Hezbollah has responded to Israeli attacks by targeting the country’s not only northern areas neighbouring Lebanon but also southern territories with long-range rockets, a radical move which has not been seen since the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war, making many analysts speculate turbulence in the Middle East which could drag the region to an all-out war.

"The situation is swiftly deteriorating every day. Tension is growing, unpredictability is increasing. This is a matter of extreme concern for us," said Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin’s long-time spokesman, during a press conference on Monday.

Last week, Russia’s Permanent Representative Vassily Nebenzia to the UN called the pagers and walkie-talkies explosions “a terrorist attack” which “jeopardizes regional peace and security and could have unpredictable ramifications for the entire Middle East.”

China was equally worried about increasing tensions between Iran-backed Hezbollah and US-backed Israel, starkly condemning Tel Aviv’s attacks on communication devices, which was “something unheard of in history”, calling it evidence of “a complete disregard for human life” and a clear violation of international law.

Fu Cong, China's Permanent Representative to the UN, called “to hold the planners and perpetrators accountable”, referring to Israeli attacks on communication devices.

What Russia and China will do

According to Kamran Gasanov, a political analyst at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), a Moscow-based think tank, the Kremlin’s assessment of recent Israeli attacks in Lebanon “is to expand the conflict and draw in the United States by provoking Hezbollah.”

Moscow “sympathizes” with the Iran-led Resistance forces, which are also called the Axis of Resistance including Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthis, Hamas and other armed groups, “not because they are against Israel, but because they are against the West,” Gasanov tells TRT World.

Iran is a longtime ally of Moscow. Overall, Moscow will not take any actions against Israel because Russia has “no direct conflict with Israel,” he adds.

The analyst also sees “narrowing” prospects for a Russian mediation between Israel and Hezbollah. “If Israel were isolated and did not receive tacit support from the US, then Russia would have a better chance of mediation. But Netanyahu is acting self-confidently, hoping for impunity and support from Washington at the most crucial moment,” he says.

China opposes Israel-Hamas escalations because a turbulent Middle East does not align with Beijing's interests in the region, says Hongda Fan, professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University. “However, given Israel's past actions and the US bias toward it, China is indeed concerned that the conflict there may further deteriorate.”

China's academic community focused on the Middle East has widely opposed Israel's attack on communication devices, believing it to be “a new threat to international security,” Fan tells TRT World. “This is not something a normal country would do,” said Shen Yi, a Chinese professor of international politics at Fudan University, during a recent interview.

If Israel and Hezbollah have a full-scale war like what happened in 2006, Beijing will “certainly call for and promote a ceasefire in multilateral forums such as the UN,” and will do “what it can” to prevent the Gaza war spread further across the region, says the professor. “But frankly speaking, China lacks sufficient direct influence on both sides,” he tells TRT World.

In terms of Chinese influence on the two enemies, Gasanov thinks similarly to Fan while Beijing has recently shown its increasing influence in the Middle Eastern landscape by mediating between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two big oil suppliers of China, developing a reconciliation deal between Hamas and Fatah, the two Palestinian factions.

“China can only watch the situation unfold and hopes for an outcome in which the popularity of the US after the end of the conflicts in the Middle East will be significantly reduced,” says the analyst. Then, the situation will allow Beijing to enter the Middle Eastern markets in more advantageous ways than before and “open military bases”, he adds.

Idris Okuducu, a formerly Beirut-based political analyst, who is now a PhD candidate at Middlesex University focusing on Iraq, Iran and Shiite Militias in the Middle East, also says that China adapts a rather “wait and see” stance than playing any active political role due to its inadequate mediation capacity between Israel and Hezbollah.

The Chinese position is generally “not to confront Israel directly but to target the US through its support” to Israel’s aggressive stances across the Middle East, ranging from the Gaza war to its attacks on Lebanon, aiming to decrease Washington’s influence in the region, Okuducu tells TRT World.

How China and Russia differ on tensions

Segei Markov, a Russian political scientist and former close advisor of President Vladimir Putin, who now leads the Institute for Political Studies, has an interesting take on how China and Russia have differed on the Hezbollah-Israel conflict.

“Russia and China have a different approach on the possible war between Israel and Hezbollah based on their distinct economic and political interests,” Markov tells TRT World. While both countries are generally allies against the Western bloc and can develop joint peace initiatives on ongoing tensions in the Middle East, their “differences exist”, says the Russian analyst.

In case of an all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel, oil prices will jump higher making the Middle Eastern turbulence worse. Unlike China, rising oil prices and Middle Eastern turbulence will “benefit” Russia, an oil-rich country, which is at war with Ukraine seeking different ways to disorient the Western support on Kiev, Markov says.

But for China, a large buyer of oil, which focuses on soft power unlike Russia prioritising to develop economic ties with Middle Eastern powers, both increasing oil prices and the regional turbulence would damage its financial and political interests, according to Markov.

The possibility of rising oil prices is “quite important” not only for Russia and China but also other global actors, considering the fact that Tehran, an ally of Hezbollah, and some Arab countries, for example, Iraq, a Shia-majority state like Iran, are oil-rich forces, says Markov.

Even countries like Saudi Arabia, another big oil producer, which has developed strong ties with both Russia and China, can not be indifferent to the Hezbollah-Israel war, taking account of its Muslim population’s anger toward the Gaza war, he adds.

Impact on the Ukraine conflict

If an all-out war involving Iran and its proxies rages across the Middle East, it will not only impact oil prices but also the level of Western arms supplies to Ukraine, some of which would be redirected from Kiev to Tel Aviv, releasing much pressure on Russia, says the former advisor to Putin.

A possible Hezbollah-Israel war would also divert a lot of Western political capital from Ukraine to Israel, says Markov. According to analysts, the Gaza war has already benefited Moscow’s war effort against Ukraine, making Kiev’s Western allies distracted.

Many activists across the globe have found the US’ and its allies’ indifference to civilian deaths caused by Israel’s genocidal war conduct hypocritical while the Western alliance condemned the Russian attack on Ukraine as an act against international law.

Markov draws attention to an emerging division between the pro-Palestinian stances across Western societies and pro-Israeli policies of most of their respective governments, which could also affect support to the Ukrainian cause against Russia. “Any problems in Europe are good for Russia” because the country is in “direct conflict” with the West, says Markov.

On the other hand, particularly European divisions is not good for China, which benefits from a “consolidated Europe” because Beijing's main interest is “to trade” with the continent, says the Russian analyst. China is “interested in a stronger Europe”, which can “resist” US demands from the EU to cut ties with Beijing, he adds.