How Türkiye has contributed to de-escalating the Ethiopia conflict

Ethiopia is reeling from a bloody two-year conflict between its federal army and rebels in the Tigray region, damaging the country’s economic life and leading to a food shortage. The conflict has exacerbated the hunger crisis in the drought-hit country, home to Africa's second-biggest population of 117 million people.

But both sides finally came to the negotiation table in South Africa’s Pretoria – the first formal contact since the outbreak of the conflict. 

The dialogue is aimed at finding a lasting ceasefire and making both sides agree to the reactivation of basic services in a country where electricity and internet cuts are widespread. Ethiopia peace talks will continue until Sunday under the auspices of the African Union mediation team. 

Türkiye, the second biggest investing country in Ethiopia after China, has increased its humanitarian aid to minimise the humanitarian fallout in the conflict-hit nation. Ankara has long urged both sides to reconcile with each other, viewing South Africa-hosted talks in a positive light.

Turkish humanitarian efforts

A Turkish foreign ministry source, who wants to stay anonymous for diplomatic reasons, draws attention to the increasing trend of humanitarian aid sent by Türkiye to Ethiopia. 

“There was a time when any humanitarian aid could not reach Tigray. At that time, we were so active to make humanitarian aid reach Tigray, sending messages to the federal government to open humanitarian corridors,” the source says, adding, “We are always ready to do more". 

Turkish NGOs from the Red Crescent to AFAD (Disaster and Emergency Management Directorate) and others have also worked hard to provide humanitarian aid to Tigrayans and other Ethiopians, according to the source. 

“The blockade that Tigray experienced was one of the strictest in recent history,” the source says, referring to the food crisis, widespread electricity shortages, internet cuts and suspension of banking activities. 

By bringing aid to both Tigrayans and other Ethiopians, Türkiye has shown its different approach to everyone, says Yunus Turhan, a professor of international relations at  Ankara Haci Bayram Veli University and an Africa expert. 

“Not only saying ‘peace’ but also bringing humanitarian aid to both sides helped the warring parties move toward a peaceful resolution”. 

Türkiye’s humanitarian efforts to Ethiopia have incrementally increased in parallel to Ankara’s leading role in terms of international aid, of which the country continues to be one of the largest donors across the world. In 2020, Turkey accounted for 26 percent of global humanitarian aid, spending $8.04 billion, according to the UK-based Development Initiatives. 

“Without any fear, Turkish NGOs brought the aid that went all over Ethiopia,” the source adds. 

‘Active neutralisation’

“Türkiye definitely wants peace and stability in Ethiopia for various reasons. First, we have historical and friendly relations with Ethiopia and second, we have a lot of investments in the country,” says the Turkish source. More than 150 Turkish companies have invested across Ethiopia in various sectors, from construction to textile. 

For Türkiye, Ethiopia is part of its strategic concept of building a "greater Middle East", according to the Turkish source. 

“Any instability in Ethiopia can spread to other regions, having consequences across the Middle East,” the source tells TRT World. 

The source also points out an important fact that much of the Turkish investments in Ethiopia came during a period from the early 2000s to the late 2010s, when the Tigrayans through the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a leading political party, dominated the country's ruling coalition of that era.

President Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power in 2018 ended the TPLF’s rule, triggering a power struggle. Abiy is a strong adherent of a centralised system while the TPFL is a defender of federalist governance. 

From time to time, the two-year conflict has seen a surprising reversal of fortune for both sides. Last year, the TPFL marched across the Ethiopian territories close to Addis Ababa. But most recently, federal troops have made significant gains, even capturing several large towns in the Tigray region, forcing the TPFL to sue for peace. 

Türkiye approaches all different ethnicities in Ethiopia with equal distance, says the Turkish foreign ministry source.

Turhan describes Turkish policy toward the Ethiopian conflict as “active neutralisation”, which reaches both sides to persuade them to move toward a peaceful settlement.

Mediation efforts

Last year, at the height of the Ethiopian tensions, Abiy visited Türkiye and met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Also, Ethiopia's foreign minister has been talking to his Turkish counterpart at frequent intervals, according to the source, who also points out that Turkish diplomats in Ethiopia have displayed remarkable consistency in reaching out to the two conflicting sides at different stages of the conflict. 

“Abiy’s August visit was crucial to develop a peace process between the two sides because he was pretty much an isolated leader at the time. During the visit, Erdogan advised Abiy to consider a peaceful resolution to the conflict,” Turhan says. 

“Unlike other countries, which preferred to isolate Abiy, Türkiye has kept communication channels open with him, instituting Ankara’s influence over the Ethiopian leadership and making Abiy consider a peaceful resolution with Tigrayans more seriously,” Turhan tells TRT World. 

On the other hand, Turkish diplomats were constantly “on the ground”, going to different areas from Afar to Amhara and Somali and staying in touch with the Tigrayan regional authorities, says the foreign ministry source. 

“Our message to all has always been the same: Please make peace!” the source adds. 

Ankara has offered its good offices to both sides, inviting them to Türkiye to hold peace talks, the source says. Recently, in the Ukraine conflict, Turkish mediation efforts have facilitated some crucial steps that eventually paved the way for a landmark Istanbul grain deal as well as prisoner swap between the warring sides. 

“We told both the federal government and Tigrayans that Türkiye is ready for everything,” the source says. Türkiye has a lot of experiences and connections with both sides unlike many other actors, says the source. 

After many back-door discussions, the Ethiopians decided to hold talks under the auspices of the African Union, whose mediation team is led by former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo and supported by former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and former Deputy President of South Africa Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka.

Representatives from the UN, the US and IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development), which is an eight-country African trade bloc, are also participating in peace talks as observers. While the EU wanted to be a participant in the Pretoria talks, the Ethiopians did not allow them to attend the meetings.