Is Imran Khan’s call to abandon coal power just a pipe dream?

In the early 1990s, a geological survey found vast amounts of coal reserves in the Thar desert of Pakistan’s southern Sindh province — enough to fix the country's chronic electricity outages for years to come. 

Studies were undertaken, ministerial discussions held, and coal samples dug out. But the project to excavate the coal and convert it into electricity kept getting pushed forward even as cities were incessantly plunged into darkness. 

It was not until last year that a Chinese-financed coal mine and a power plant of 330 megawatts (MW) finally became operational. For a government struggling to ease its dependence on imported oil, which adds to the trade deficit, it was a much needed break. 

Unlike major economies like the United States and neighbouring China and India, which have relied on coal to meet their energy requirements for decades, the share of coal in Pakistan’s energy mix was negligible until a few years ago. 

Many officials in Islamabad have vigorously lobbied for increasing coal’s share as it helps reduce electricity bills for consumers. 

It therefore came as a surprise to many when Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan on Saturday told the UN Climate Ambition Summit that his government wants to move towards renewable energy, such as wind power, and away from coal. 

“We have decided not to have any more power based on coal. We have already scraped two coal power projects...so I assure you that Pakistan will be doing its best,” he said. 

The Economist called Khan’s statement the “biggest surprise” to come out of the virtual summit. 

A world famous cricketer who raised funds to build a large cancer hospital in Pakistan, Khan became prime minister in 2018. He’s known for taking particular interest in the environment and has often spoken about campaigns to plant trees. 

“(Khan’s statement) was really confusing for many of us. Pakistan’s carbon footprint is very small and we need to use our indiginious coal to bring down the cost of electricity,” Najam ul Hassan Farooqi, a Pakistan-based energy consultant, told TRT World. 

“I personally think he wasn’t properly briefed about the situation on the ground.”

Blackness vs darkness 

The share of coal-based power in Pakistan has gradually increased in the last few years. From being almost negligible five years ago, it now contributes almost 20 percent of the electricity output, according to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra). 

Besides the power plant at the Thar mine, a few have been built elsewhere in the country that use imported coal as fuel. More than $6 billion, with most of the financing coming under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, have gone into building the plants. 

A similar amount will be spent on coal-based power plants with an installed capacity of 4,650 MW (Pakistan’s available capacity is around 26,000 MW) - they are expected to come online over next three years, says the Private Power and Infrastructure Board, a government body tasked to bring investment. 

Farooqi says Pakistan has no other option but to rely on domestic coal reserves to address the energy crisis, which often leads to hours of power outages, a disruption to economic activity, and fodder for political turmoil. 

“Emissions are a concern but technology has really improved in the last few years,” he says. 

Like other countries, Pakistan has moved away from using oil and have moved towards gas to run much of its power grid. However, domestic gas production has remained stagnant for years. Gas imports in the form of liquified natural gas (LNG) often hit roadblocks as the cash-strapped government struggles to come up with funds.

The poorly managed national power grid, replete with financial losses, is another headache for policymakers. Rampant power theft means electricity companies aren’t able to collect all the bills. 

With huge deficits, these utilities delay paying their fuel suppliers, leading to what’s known as circular debt - the multi-billion dollar sinkhole where payments remain stuck along the energy supply chain. 

Industry people, however, welcomed Khan’s decision to promote renewables  - even though the target of meeting as much as 60 percent of energy needs from renewables, including hydel, by 2030, appears ambitious. 

Winds of change 

A little over a decade ago, Zorlu Enerji, a Turkish company, erected the first wind turbine in Pakistan in the town of Jhimpir, 70 km from the largest city of Karachi.

For years the structure was a solitary figure rising high amid the sand dunes and shrubs in that windswept part of the region. 

That wind turbine could produce only 1.2 megawatts and only if the winds were generous. Now, the installed wind power capacity in the country exceeds 1,200 MW. 

Another 430 MW comes from solar powered panels - minuscule compared to the overall share in the energy pie but a step in the right direction, experts say.  

“If compared with the region, we haven’t come a long way. India has set mind boggling targets. They want to do something like 400 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity by 2028,” says Mujtaba Haider Khan, the CEO of Reon Energy, which sells solar solutions. 

Pakistan’s entire installed capacity is around 38 GWs. 

Harnessing alternate energy has its own challenges. The places where windmills and solar panels are economically feasible are far from urban centres, which require most of the electricity. This requires constructing power transmission lines over long distances - an expensive proposition. 

Khan says distributed grids where piecemeal power supply comes from different areas instead of a single large power station, can help address this bottleneck. 

While technology has improved in recent years, bringing down the cost of wind turbines and solar panels, as well as increasing their efficiency and storing the electricity, remains a problem. 

“Considering the pace at which things are moving, I think in the next six years it would be cheaper to install a solar panel and battery than use coal,” says Khan.