Is jailed Kashmiri leader's election victory a defeat for Modi?

The streets of Baramulla, in Indian-administered northern Kashmir, were abuzz with celebrations yesterday. Many people flooded the streets to cheer the election of Sheikh Abdul Rasheed, aka Engineer Rasheed, an imprisoned leader whose win has shocked the political establishment.

Despite being miles away in jail, Rasheed's triumph echoed through his hometown of Langate and beyond. Many of his supporters said the win marked the end of traditional power dynamics in India, signalling a shift towards a more grassroots-driven political movement.

This week, supporters in different areas have expressed joy by chanting victory slogans, waving flags, shooting off fireworks, and proudly displaying pictures of Rasheed.

Speaking to TRT World, Aabiroo Tanveer said, "I feel good that my first vote was for humanity. Rasheed has been in jail for five years, and his family is suffering. We all need him. Kashmir needs him."

Tanveer added that Rasheed has always been Kashmir's voice, representing the people and putting forward their issues. "Even when he was dragged on roads, he didn't give up. If Rasheed is there, we are not scared of who is ruling the centre."

The comment was a veiled nod at Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Hindu-nationalist BJP party, which for the first time failed to reach a majority in government since coming to power in 2014.

Earlier this week, as votes were being counted across India, Rasheed's family and supporters anxiously awaited the results in his constituency. It was a dramatic turn of events when Rasheed, who has been in jail since 2019, was declared the winner.

The former legislator, who ran as an independent candidate representing the unregistered Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), triumphed by defeating Omar Abdullah, the seasoned politician and vice president of the National Conference (NC), by a margin of 204,142 votes.

"This is undeniably a defeat for Modi's rule in Kashmir. A democratic government cannot function properly under bureaucratic control alone. We deserve our own government and genuine representation," said Firdous Baba, AIP spokesperson.

Formidable voice

In 2013, Rasheed went viral in Kashmir for his bold act of resistance as he was dragged on a road during a protest. Fast forward to today, and Rasheed's unexpected victory has ignited a wave of astonishment across the region.

Speaking to TRT World, Baba said, "The people have placed their trust in Rasheed Sahab, and it will be a symbolic form of protest against the ruling government and he will become the voice of Kashmiris jailed in different parts of India. People have put faith in us and see us as a voice for those languishing in jails for the sake of trials."

"This victory is not just about one man but about our right to fair and just governance," he added.

For many, Rasheed's win is emblematic of a broader movement within Kashmir. It is a form of protest against the policies that have been implemented since the abrogation of Article 370, said one of the locals.

The crackdown on political dissent, the prolonged lockdowns, and the curtailment of civil liberties have created an atmosphere of alienation and unrest, and Rasheed offers hope for the future, they say.

Rasheed, known for his fiery rhetoric and unwavering stance on Kashmiri rights, was arrested in 2019 by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) amidst the tumultuous period following the abrogation of Article 370, which many saw as India stripping Kashmir of its autonomy.

He has been incarcerated in New Delhi's Tihar Jail on terror funding charges for the last five years.

Whether can be a formidable voice is something that only time can tell, as for now, he continues to languish in jail.

But despite being silenced by imprisonment, Rasheed has emerged as the voice of the people, resonating with their aspirations for change. His triumph over Omar Abdullah, a prominent figure in India's political landscape and scion of a powerful dynasty, has sent shockwaves through the political corridors of the nation.

For many people, the slogan "Tihar ka badla, vote se" (the revenge for Tihar is with votes) really resonated, said Khalid Farooq, an engineer from Indian-administered Kashmir.

"This shows very much the end of dynasty rule. If you look at the results, both Omar and Mehbooba lost their respective seats by over 2 lakh votes. This kind of victory margin is unimaginable in the context of elections in Kashmir. The collective anger against these dynasties has intensified post-2019. And now it's showing," Farooq added.

Jolt to the system

Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti, who come from influential political families that have governed the region for decades, exemplify dynastic rule in Kashmir. The Abdullah family leads the NC, while the Mufti family heads the People's Democratic Party, both dominating Kashmir's political scene for generations.

According to AIP's spokesperson, people are fed up with dynasty rule. "They are seeing our party as an alternate and are accepting the changes," Baba said.

In accepting his defeat, Abdullah extended his congratulations to Rasheed. "I think it's time to accept the inevitable. Congratulations to Engineer Rashid for his victory in North Kashmir. I don't believe his victory will hasten his release from prison nor will the people of North Kashmir get the representation they have a right to but the voters have spoken and in a democracy that's all that matters," he posted on X.

Mufti, President of the People's Democratic Party (PDP), also congratulated the winners on X. "Heartfelt congratulations to Mian Altaf, Aga Ruhullah, Engineer Rashid & Haneefa Jan for winning the parliament elections. Government of India must respect verdict of the people & release Engineer Rashid," she said.

In the Lokh Sabah election, Rasheed not only defeated prominent contenders like Abdullah, but People's Conference President Sajad Lone as well.

In the 2019 parliamentary elections, Rasheed stood third, trailing behind his rivals by a considerable margin. However, the tide turned in his favour in the 2024 elections, with a remarkable increase in voter turnout from 34.71 percent to 59 percent.

As the leader of the AIP, Rasheed's victory signals a shift in the political landscape of Baramulla, highlighting the electorate's desire for change and representation.

Road to victory

With Rasheed behind bars, his family took up the mantle of his campaign. His children, particularly his son, became the face of his political battle.

They traversed the length and breadth of Baramulla, rallying support and speaking out against the injustice of his imprisonment. They had expressed confidence that the massive crowds witnessed in the rallies would turn into votes for Rasheed, leading to his release from prison.

According to Baba, the effort was worth it. "We got a chance to campaign for 20 days and our rallies would be attended by thousands of people with banners and posters. We had connected with youth and indigenous people. We were expecting the win."

J-K saw its highest voter turnout in 35 years, reaching 58 percent across the Union Territory's five Lok Sabha seats. However, Srinagar's turnout remained low, at 38 percent.

'Symbolic protest'

During the period of abrogation of Article 370, Modi ordered a sweeping crackdown on political leaders in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. The goal was to stifle dissent and bring the region under tighter control by New Delhi. For six years, Indian-administered Kashmir had no proper government.

Instead, it was under the governor's rule, and during that time, people from different backgrounds including journalists, politicians, locals, and activists were arrested.

Even human rights groups and news organisations were raided and closed down. The crackdown has created a chilling effect on dissent in the region, leaving the area shrouded in silence for some time - until now.

For Farooq, the engineer who voted for Rasheed, this election underscored a clear rejection of policies implemented by the ruling government since 2019.

"Voting for Rasheed served as a powerful message to authorities, signalling Kashmiris' opposition to arbitrary detentions on unfounded charges. (Rasheed's) victory holds profound significance, symbolising resistance against government policies."

He added, "The policies that are in place right now do not have public mandate. And the government should really think about it."