Kashmiris hopeful, sceptical amid first election in over a decade

For the past five years, Mohammad Hafiz, a 30-year-old political science student from South Kashmir's Kulgam district, has been terrified, avoiding politics and monitoring events anonymously on social media.

Speaking to TRT World, Hafiz recalled how Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government's revocation of Kashmir's special status plunged the region into uncertainty and confusion.

But there is a growing enthusiasm in Indian-administered Kashmir for the regional polls, which will be held in three phases starting this week.

Since 1947, the region's elections have had low voter turnout and frequent violence. But Hafiz said he's now hopeful about Indian-administered Kashmir's changing political landscape.

"All these years, I thought there was no hope left. But it's interesting to see the shift now. People who never believed in voting are now planning to vote," he said.

Fresh opportunity

In August 2019, the Hindu-nationalist Modi government revoked Article 370, which had granted Kashmir special autonomy. This revocation led to India's direct control over the region and a severe crackdown, including mass arrests and an internet blackout.

Since then, Modi's BJP-run government has struggled to gain support in the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley.

With elections now approaching, many Kashmiris see this as an opportunity to regain their political voice after years of suppression.

The BJP has claimed that the 2019 decision aimed to "bring peace and prosperity" to the region, and accuses regional political leaders, who have otherwise always been loyal to India, of "terrorism and the reason for instability" in Indian-administered Kashmir.

This time, regional parties like the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC) and the People's Democratic Party (PDP), along with bigger national parties such as the BJP and the Congress, are all contesting these elections.

But there are also separatists in Kashmir running as independents, marking a significant shift from their previous stance of boycotting the polls altogether.

Kulsum Bano, a 37-year-old woman, spoke to TRT World at a rally for an independent candidate in south Kashmir's Kulgam.

"I came here to see the rally. I don't remember when was the last time Kashmiris participated in such a huge crowd and it makes me happy to see new candidates participating in elections," she said.

Analysts say India's security clampdown and the lack of political space in the region since 2019 have forced separatists to "reconsider their strategy of boycotting polls".

"They've realised that an elected regional government could provide a breather to people," said Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group. "While people seem to be enjoying being part of the political process in the public sphere, it's too early to tell if their ideological and political convictions have changed."

New players

Over 40 percent of the 908 assembly candidates standing in the elections are independents, prompting mainstream parties to claim that the BJP is backing them to split votes.

There is also a perception that the BJP is working to dilute power among smaller parties and independents to thwart a strong showing by the Congress-National Conference alliance and regional parties.

Altaf Thakur, BJP spokesperson in India-administered Kashmir, told TRT World that mainstream leaders are fearful about the BJP's popularity, but the party is "confident" that it will get enough votes to form the government.

"After 2019, there were no civilian killings, protests or shutdowns in Kashmir. The BJP's vision is to maintain that peace and we want to see Jammu and Kashmir among India's most developed places," he said.

What has raised many eyebrows in Indian-administered Kashmir is also the historic return of Jammu Kashmir Jamaat-e-Islami to politics after 37 years.

Return of controversial party

The Indian government banned the organisation under the Unlawful Activities Protection Act (UAPA) before the abrogation of Article 370. Its leaders have been jailed and their properties seized, but former members are now running as independents.

The Jamaat-e-Islami last contested elections in 1987, leading the Muslim United Front (MUF) campaign for the state assembly. Analysts believe the elections were rigged by New Delhi to prevent an MUF victory, sparking an uprising against Indian rule.

The Jamaat later became the core of the armed rebellion, with Hizbul Mujahideen declared as its armed wing in 1990. However, the Jamaat distanced itself from the hardliners in November 1998.

But since its announcement to participate in elections, an internal rift has emerged within the organisation. A few members claim that the party has no major consensus to fight the elections.

Speaking to TRT World, one member who asked to remain anonymous said, "This alliance appears to stem from their shared victimhood under the BJP-led central government. However, those of us opposed to our organisation's participation in elections suspect the BJP may have engineered the alliance, with their knowledge or not."

Sources told TRT World that the Jamaat appointed a five-member panel that has held multiple rounds of talks with New Delhi.

"We chose to participate in these elections not just to lift our ban, but because the situation demanded it. Our goal is to bring peace, political stability, and protect our youth from security harassment. We've been stifled for years, and mainstream leaders have failed the people. We want to genuinely serve, not just offer token gestures," said Talat Majeed, a Jamaat-backed candidate, at his home in Pulwama.

The Alliance

Jamaat is also allying with popular regional leaders like Engineer Rashid, whose Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) saw a resounding India's parliamentary election victory.

On September 11, Rashid was granted interim bail until October 2, and since then, thousands have gathered at his rallies. "People are rising up against Modi's policies. Their vote is a rejection of the BJP's assault on Kashmiris," said Rashid, vowing to restore Kashmir's autonomy and "resolve the Kashmir issue once and for all."

Analysts feel that with small independent candidates and emerging new parties, things are becoming much more complex.

"Given their past challenges, there may be a genuine desire for their participation. But we don't have clear answers right now," said Noor Baba, a Kashmiri political analyst.

Observers say people want to participate mainly to "keep Modi out of Kashmir" due to his hardline policies. But some still remain sceptical about how much the elections can achieve.

"Frustrations have been building up, and voters in Jammu and Kashmir are choosing what they see as the lesser evil. They're questioning how genuine the electoral process is. Even BJP strongholds like Jammu are disillusioned," said Anuradha Bhasin, senior journalist and author of A Dismantled State.

Analysts say even after victory, the new government would likely face major challenges. With a BJP-appointed Lieutenant Governor, its ability to operate independently would be severely limited.

"Most parties pledge to fight for the restoration of Article 370, but the new government will have limited powers, with key areas like law and order still controlled by New Delhi," Bhasin said.

"The assembly's powers are curtailed, and real authority remains with New Delhi. A non-BJP government might offer a small buffer, a voice for the people, even if it can't undo the past five years."