Raisi's death can set off internal power struggle in Iran: experts

After the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, speculation is rife about the Islamic Republic’s political future.

The Iranian constitution stipulates that in the event of a president's death in office, the first vice president assumes the presidency for an interim period, pending confirmation by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In this case, Mohammad Mokhber will act as the president until snap elections are conducted within the 50-day timeframe.

The run-up to the election and what happens afterwards is a matter of anxiety for the Iranian people, many of whom expressed their distrust in Iran’s democracy when they decided to turn out in low numbers to cast a vote in the last elections.

Finding a replacement for Raisi, Khamenei’s close aide, may prove more challenging than it appears, as he was known to be a compliant and inconspicuous bureaucrat who operated like a behind-the-scenes vizier, says Adem Yilmaz, a researcher at The National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations (INALCO) in Paris.

“While regime opponents will remember him as the figure who sentenced thousands of political activists to death in the 1980s, swiftly climbed the judiciary’s ranks despite his lack of merit, made gaffes during his presidential campaign, and was an ineffective bureaucrat; supporters will depict him as a charismatic leader,” he tells TRT World.

Who’s more obedient?

Conservatives considered hardliner Raisi the best fit to run the country. He was also seen as Khamenei's successor, who turned 85 last month.

In Iran, the Ayatollah wields complete power over the state, while the president is the government's figurehead. And it’s at the very top where the great power struggle will take place.

Besides Raisi, the other person in line to take the coveted title of supreme leader is Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba.

But Mojtaba won’t have smooth sailing. Iranians, who rose up against the monarchy in the 1970s, are opposed to dynastic transitions.

"The people will ask: we overthrew the sultanate, we overthrew the (Pahlavi) dynasty. Will we witness the establishment of a new dynasty or sultanate now?" says Turgay Safak, head of the Istanbul-based Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM).

“Should Mojtaba assume the leadership, he would undoubtedly confront significant public opposition. To bolster legitimacy, he could engage with proactive measures, particularly in social realms, to cultivate public trust,” he tells TRT World.

But time has been on Mojtaba’s side.

Alam Saleh, a lecturer in Politics and International Relations at the Australian National University (ANU), says that Mojtaba has been training and learning from his father for a long time.

“He is deeply trusted and has access to all the necessary information, something even President Raisi wouldn't have had. This places him in a very strong position to run for such a vital and important role in the future,” Saleh tells TRT World.

Like Raisi, who was expected to run for the second term, Khamenei's own son might have to navigate through a difficult path as different state actors including the IRGC fight for influence.

Revolutionary Guards’ role

Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which reports to Khamenei, has been in a constant tussle with other arms of the government to assert more control over the country, experts say.

The recent unprecedented attack on Israel reflects IRGC’s growing clout. It will also try to influence who gets to be nominated for the presidential elections.

“Largely due to its control over the economy, the IRGC stands as the dominant force in Iran, both economically and politically, while also maintaining a strong presence in foreign operations,” says Safak.

The military corps will certainly have a say in the selection of a new president if not appointing one openly and directly.

ANU’s Alam Saleh says that IRGC will continue to maintain influence, provided the next president doesn’t try to disrupt that balance of power.

No faith in democracy

In 2021, Raisi won the presidential election following the decision of the country's Guardian Council, an institution responsible for vetting candidates, to disqualify 32 politicians from running in the election.

Most of them were reformist and moderate leaders.

“In the previous presidential election, an environment was engineered to ensure Raisi’s victory,” says Safak.

Even if the president’s office holds a symbolic value in the Iranian state, the post has to be filled via elections.

One indication of that sentiment is the parliamentary elections held in March which saw a low turnout as many voters boycotted the polls in a sign of protest against the killing of Masha Amini, the woman who died in police custody in 2022.

The voter turnout, only 41 percent, was the lowest participation since the 1979 revolution.

“This shows that the people no longer have faith in the elections in Iran,” says Safak.

Alam Saleh believes that turnout will be low again, and as a result, Iran's internal and external policies will not significantly change.

Experts say there is little doubt that the next president will be chosen from among the conservatives, but divisions exist within the hardline factions as well.

“If there are possibilities for reformist candidates, although we don't give it much credence, the emergence of more moderate and flexible figures could stimulate participation (in the election) to some extent,” Safak adds.