Trump says he will stop Gaza war, but his past record suggests otherwise

Donald Trump is going to stop the war in Palestine if he gets elected US president in November—or so he says.

A hot mic caught the presumptive candidate of the Republican Party making the definitive statement Saturday night at a sporting event in New Jersey as he spoke to Khabib Nurmagomedov—former world champion of Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), a multi-billion-dollar enterprise that holds bloody fights among mixed martial arts professionals inside an octagonal cage for a global viewership running into hundreds of millions of people.

“I know you’re gonna stop all this Palestine war,” says Khabib, the longest-reigning UFC lightweight champion from Russia, while shaking hands with the former president.

“We’ll stop it. I’ll get it stopped,” Trump reassures Khabib, who wields worldwide influence as one of the most popular Muslim athletes.

Trump, who holds a slight lead over incumbent Joe Biden in the presidential race, is no friend of the Palestinians. Worried more about Israel “losing the PR war” than the loss of more than 36,000 Palestinian lives, the former president has unreservedly criticised anti-war protesters demonstrating on university campuses across the United States.

More than five in every 10 likely Republican voters support the US calling for a permanent ceasefire and a de-escalation of violence in Gaza. The percentage of likely Democratic voters in favour of a ceasefire is even higher at 83 percent.

However, bipartisan support for an immediate halt in Israeli aggression in Gaza hasn’t translated into diplomatic action on part of the US, which continues to back Israel unconditionally in the bloodiest war of the 21st century.

Did Trump mean what he said?

Stopping Israel’s war in Gaza is something that Biden has demonstrably failed to do over the last 241 days. That alone makes it reason enough for Trump to act on his latest promise and bring an immediate ceasefire in Gaza after winning back the White House.

But a politician like Trump may well be expected to cut down a tree, stand on its stump and make a speech about saving trees. His messaging on the Gaza war has been sparse on the campaign trail, which is probably reflective of the dwindling interest of Americans in the issue.

Trump claims he’s the most pro-Israel president in the history of the US. Unlike his other claims, this one actually stands up to scrutiny.

It was under Trump’s presidency that the Arab-Israeli normalisation process revived in earnest as part of the Abraham Accords, bilateral agreements that Israel signed with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in 2020.

The US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal under his administration in 2018, upending the 2015 agreement that yielded breathing space to Iran, much to the chagrin of Israel.

In a break with official US policy for decades, the Trump administration also recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and shifted the US embassy from Tel Aviv to the city that most countries consider part of the Palestinian territories.

To the delight of the Israelis, Trump’s position on the two-state solution has also shifted away from decades-long US policy, with the former president saying he isn’t sure about its viability.

But before brushing aside Trump’s newfound distaste for war as campaign rhetoric delivered privately to a famous Muslim personality at a testosterone-filled sporting event in the immediate aftermath of his conviction on 34 felony counts, let’s examine whether the former president may actually be speaking his mind.

Riding the fence?

Trump has made no secret of his frustration with the way Israel has been waging war in Gaza. The press has quoted him as saying Israel should “get back to peace and stop killing people”.

He’s pointed out that pictures of “buildings falling down and being bombed with possibly people in those buildings every single night” have snowballed into a public relations disaster for Israel.

He’s said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is being “rightfully” criticised for the October 7 incursion by Hamas, even though his animosity with the Israeli premier dates back to November 2020 when the latter hastened to congratulate Biden on his win in the presidential election.

Trump may well be eyeing the Nobel Peace Prize—an honour that’s eluded him three times already—by way of bringing the Gaza war to a swift end under his watch.

After all, from the Abraham Accords to an attempt to reset US-North Korea relations, Trump has always looked for high-stakes deals in international affairs to grab the coveted prize that his bête noire Barack Obama received in 2009 for strengthening global diplomacy.

Yet the simplest explanation for Trump’s desire to end the Gaza war can be electoral calculus. An increasing number of Democrats are abandoning Team Biden because of his complete support for the Israeli war in Gaza.

They’re deeply divided over Biden's handling of both the war in Gaza and the US campus protests against it, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on May 16.

Another poll by the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee shows only 7 percent of Arab-Americans are currently planning to vote for Biden. Support from this demographic will be key in a battleground state like Michigan where votes from Arab-Americans often play a decisive role because of the community’s large presence.

In other words, keeping away from laying out a clear vision for Gaza in his second term has proved electorally expedient for Trump.

“(Trump) has no real incentive to draw a sharper contrast with Biden,” says Nicole Narea of Vox, noting that the Palestine issue has already put President Biden on the back foot.