Two decades after Rafic Hariri’s killing, Lebanon stands at crossroads

Lebanon on Friday marks the twentieth anniversary of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, an event that sent shockwaves through a country long ravaged by civil war, sectarian divides, and foreign occupation.

Hariri, a towering figure in Lebanese politics, had only recently resigned as premier when a suicide bombing targeted his convoy in Beirut on February 14, 2005, killing him and twenty-one others.

A businessman-turned-politician, Hariri had been listed among the world’s hundred richest men before assuming the role of prime minister, a position he held from 1992 to 1998 and again from 2000 to 2004.

He gained recognition on the global stage for his role in the 1989 Taif Agreement, which put an end to Lebanon’s devastating fifteen-year civil war.

During his tenure, Hariri played a central role in rebuilding Beirut, a city still bearing the scars of conflict. His second term saw the withdrawal of the Israeli army from southern Lebanon, ending an eighteen-year occupation.

In the years that followed his assassination, the United Nations-led Special Tribunal for Lebanon investigated his killing, ultimately finding what it described as “compelling evidence” implicating Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group that had long wielded outsized influence in Lebanon’s delicate sectarian system.

Hariri’s assassination ignited the Cedar Revolution, a mass mobilisation that forced Syria to withdraw from Lebanon in April 2005, bringing an end to nearly three decades of military occupation.

Assad’s role?

For twenty-nine years, Syria had been the dominant force in Lebanon under the rule of the Assad family, with president Hafez al Assad’s heavy-handed intervention during the country’s 1975–1990 civil war.

Hariri, a key Sunni leader, had a strained relationship with Syria’s then-president, Bashar al Assad. His opposition to extending the term of then-President Emile Lahoud—a close ally of both Assad and Hezbollah—placed him on a collision course with Damascus.

“It will be Lahoud… opposing him is tantamount to opposing Assad himself… I will break Lebanon over your head… So you had better return to Beirut and arrange the matter on that basis,” Assad was quoted as telling Hariri six months before his assassination.

The killing set off a wave of demonstrations, both within Lebanon and internationally, as protesters demanded an end to Syria’s military presence in the country. Damascus eventually withdrew its troops, yet it continued to exert influence from afar. The power vacuum left in the wake of Syria’s retreat was soon filled by Hezbollah.

In 2005, an investigative team commissioned by the UN Security Council presented initial findings that implicated both Syrian and Lebanese officials.

Among those scrutinised was Maher al Assad, the Syrian president’s brother.

The UN’s chief investigator at the time, Detlev Mehlis, questioned several senior Syrian officials regarding their alleged involvement in Hariri’s assassination.

One such official, Ghazi Kanaan, Syria’s former interior minister and head of military intelligence in Lebanon from 1982 to 2002, was found dead in his office mere weeks after his UN questioning.

Another suspect, Maj. Gen. Assef Shawkat, Assad’s brother-in-law and former head of military intelligence. He died in a 2012 blast in Damascus.

Maj Gen Jameh Jameh, a high-ranking member of Syrian military intelligence, was likewise questioned by Mehlis in 2005; he was killed under mysterious circumstances in 2013.

Then, in an eerie pattern, Rustum Ghazaleh, Syria’s last intelligence chief in Lebanon and another suspect in the Hariri case, also died under unknown circumstances in Damascus.

By December 2005, Mehlis had resigned from his post and was replaced by a Belgian prosecutor who failed to pursue the Syrian angle of the investigation.

“Politically, it became clear that no one at the UN actually wanted an investigation on Mr Hariri’s assassination that could trigger instability in Lebanon,” said Michael Young, a senior editor at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut.

The 2006 Lebanon War further diverted global attention, as Hezbollah fought in a thirty-four-day armed conflict against the invading Israeli army.

Nearly every suspect linked to the Hariri case met a violent end.

In 2020, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon convicted senior Hezbollah operative Salim Jamil Ayyash in absentia, along with two other Hezbollah members. In November, Ayyash was reportedly killed in an Israeli airstrike in Syria.

Changing Lebanon

Saad Hariri, Rafic’s son and himself a three-time prime minister, has spent recent years in the UAE but has now returned for the anniversary commemorations.

However, this time, he is back in a changed Lebanon that has undergone profound changes.

The recent Israeli war on Lebanon has weakened the Iran-backed group Hezbollah, which for decades dominated Lebanon’s political life. Meanwhile, its Syrian ally, Bashar al Assad, has been ousted.

A source close to the younger Hariri told Agence France-Presse (AFP) that he is expected to deliver a speech outlining developments “in Lebanon and the region” and offering “a roadmap for the future,” though he may not resume political activities right away.

Until early 2022, Saad Hariri had been Lebanon’s most prominent Sunni leader, in a country where political power is shared along sectarian lines. Under an unwritten convention, the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the National Assembly speaker a Shia Muslim.

But his relationship with Saudi Arabia, once a key backer, soured over his increasingly conciliatory stance toward Hezbollah.

In 2017, Hariri announced his resignation in a dramatic televised speech from Riyadh, citing Iran’s “grip” on Lebanon through Hezbollah—only to spark widespread speculation that he was being held against his will.

French President Emmanuel Macron intervened to secure his return, and Hariri ultimately rescinded his resignation.

A reluctant politician, Hariri’s political career continued to be marked by abrupt exits.

In 2019, amid sweeping nationwide protests demanding a wholesale overhaul of Lebanon’s entrenched political elite, he stepped down once again.

Then, in 2022, in a tearful address, he announced his withdrawal from politics altogether, citing “Iranian influence” as one of the reasons for his decision.

The source close to him, however, suggested that the landscape has shifted. “These reasons have now ‘vanished,’” the source said.

For decades, Hezbollah stood as Lebanon’s dominant force, yet its arsenal and leadership have been severely weakened by war. Assad’s removal in neighbouring Syria cut the group's vital arms supply lines.

In January, former army chief Joseph Aoun was elected president after a more than two-year vacuum and vacancy. He had been widely seen as the preferred choice of the US as well as Saudi Arabia.

This month, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam—a former presiding judge at the International Criminal Court—formed a new government.

“Lebanon has been given a new chance as Iranian influence is declining and the international community has returned,” the source said.