Unpacking fear of an ‘all-out war’ between Israel and Lebanon

As tensions rise between Israel and Lebanon, the Pentagon has sent military ships to prepare for the evacuation of American citizens from the region, according to US defense officials.

NBC News reports that these ships include the USS Wasp, an assault ship, which “will operate in the eastern Mediterranean to be ready for a Military Assisted Departure and other missions.”

The US embassy in Beirut has also issued repeated travel warnings to its citizens, urging them to “strongly reconsider travel to Lebanon”. Meanwhile, White House envoy Amos Hochstein expressed concern about the possibility of “a greater war” during his trip to Lebanon.

"We have seen an escalation over the last few weeks. And what President Biden wants to do is avoid a further escalation to a greater war,” he said.

Since the renewal of hostilities nearly nine months ago, Israel and Hezbollah—which has a strong support base in southern Lebanon—have repeatedly launched attacks against one other. Thousands of people have had to flee their homes along the bordering towns and villages. According to an estimate by Reuters, around 387 people have been killed in Lebanon. Meanwhile, in Israel, 18 soldiers and 10 civilians have been killed in attacks by Hezbollah, according to Israeli officials.

The US has expressed concern that Israel might carry out a possible ground offensive in Lebanon, which comes in the wake of worrying statements of an “all-out war” by Israeli officials. “We are very close to the moment of decision to change the rules against Hezbollah and Lebanon,” wrote Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz on X. “In an all-out war, Hezbollah will be destroyed and Lebanon will be severely hit,” he warned. Prior to that, on a trip to northern Israel, President Isaac Herzog said the international community should not be surprised if “the situation spirals out of control.”

“No restraint and no rules and no ceilings"

Just last week, the Times of Israel reported that senior Israeli generals had already approved of a ground offensive in southern Lebanon. “Attacking the enemy in its own territory, that is the ultimate solution," said Israeli Air Force Commander Tomer Bar at a military graduation ceremony. "We have the means for it, we have the capabilities, and certainly, we have the patience and fighting spirit," he said. More recently, during his latest trip to Washington on June 24, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said his troops could take Lebanon "back to the Stone Age, but we don't want to do it.”

Satellite images taken from Planet Labs PBC from a Lebanese village on the border with Israel show the scale of destruction over the last nine months. According to an image analysis by Reuters, there were at least 64 strikes on the village of Aita al-Shaab, which is only one kilometer from the border, with some strikes hitting multiple buildings. According to some analysts, speaking to Reuters, the satellite images brought back memories of the 34-day war between Israel and Lebanon in 2006, in which fighters at Aita al-Shaab played a significant role in deterring Israeli strikes. For his part, in a recent video speech, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah himself has warned of a war with “no restraint and no rules and no ceilings,” if Israel is to pursue its plans of a ground invasion of Lebanon.

“All what the enemy says and the threats and warnings the mediators bring – and what is being said in the Israeli media – about a war in Lebanon does not scare us,” he said.

A recent op-ed in Haaretz warned that right-wing groups within Israel might use present tensions to push for further expansion of its territory. "Before you dismiss the religious messianists who held a small online conference on Monday with their eyes set on reclaiming 'God's Promised Land,' remember that their plans for West Bank settlement seemed equally outlandish 50 years ago," it read.

US media reports however suggest that Washington is involved in active diplomacy, trying to discourage any further escalation on the Israel-Lebanon border. According to The New York Times, quoting Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, the four actors involved in this situation – the US, Israel, Hezbollah and Iran – view each other with utmost suspicion.

“There is a possibility of pulling this latest escalation and expansion of the conflict back from the brink,” Maloney is quoted in the Times as saying. “But there are four actors engaged in a dangerous game of chicken and the prospect for miscalculation is high.”

For his part, while ensuring continued aid to Israel, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken “underscored the importance of avoiding further escalation of the conflict and reaching a diplomatic resolution.”