‘We are living in the most dangerous era since World War II’

The world stands at a dangerous crossroads, marked by the escalating Russia-Ukraine war, relentless conflicts in the Middle East, and the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China. With the decline of US hegemony, the rise of China, and the erosion of global institutions, the likelihood of great power conflicts has increased.

Amid this turmoil, middle powers such as Türkiye and the Global South have a critical role in navigating the fractured geopolitical landscape, but the convergence of these crises makes this era arguably the most perilous since World War II.

“We are living in the most dangerous moment in world history since the end of World War II,” Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), told TRT World in an exclusive interview.

Gerges was in Istanbul for the recently held TRT World Forum 2024, themed “A World at a Breaking Point: Managing Crises and Transformation.” He also participated in a special panel discussion titled "War and Order: Navigating Geopolitical Shifts in a Changing World."

The LSE professor’s stark assessment reflects the volatility of the current global order, characterised by nuclear threats, intensifying great power rivalries, and the unprecedented militarisation of technology.

“There are loose talks about the use of nuclear weapons,” Gerges said pointing to Russia’s decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons if its national security is compromised and the United States’ integration of such tactical weapons into its strategic planning. These developments, he warned, signal a dangerous normalisation of nuclear brinkmanship.

Russia recently amended its nuclear doctrine, citing heightened threats following the Joe Biden administration’s decision to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles. Similar missile support from the UK and France has further escalated the conflict, culminating in Russia’s first reported use of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in combat—a historic and alarming development in modern warfare.

Gerges further underscored the risks of escalating tensions between the US and China, warning that a potential military confrontation between these superpowers would have catastrophic consequences. The professor described their rivalry as a "cosy war" that risks spiralling into a direct military confrontation.

“The rules are being destroyed, and the world is in a vacuum. We could wake up tomorrow to a war between China and the United States,” he warned.

Need for a global alliance of humanity

Gerges, who also holds the chair in contemporary Middle Eastern studies at the LSE, highlighted the diminishing credibility of global institutions, the rise of ethnic nationalism and Islamophobia, and the failure of democratic ideals in many parts of the world, including the Middle East, as key factors making this the most dangerous time since World War II.

In response to the breakdown of the international system, he underscored the importance of middle powers in shaping a more stable world order.

“We need a global alliance of humanity that includes middle powers—such as Türkiye, South Africa, Brazil, Pakistan and India—and progressive Western nations like Spain, Ireland, and Norway,” he said, calling for collaboration to counterbalance the waning hegemony of the United States and the inefficiency of institutions like the United Nations.

The professor emphasised the need for these nations to leverage international mechanisms like the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to safeguard the interests of the Global South.

Gerges commended South Africa for filing a genocide case against Israel at the ICJ and pressing the ICC to investigate allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity linked to Israel's actions in Gaza. Türkiye also officially joined the ICJ genocide case, presenting photographic evidence of Israeli atrocities captured by the Anadolu Agency during the hearings.

“The United States, as the global hegemon, has hijacked the international institutions. South Africa, in aggressively pursuing the genocide case against Israel, has done a magnificent job in trying to save global institutions,” noted Gerges.

He urged the Global South nations to create robust networks to shield themselves from becoming collateral damage in potential conflicts between major powers.

AI-driven warfare, a dangerous evolution

Delving into the role of technology in reshaping warfare, Gerges cited Israel’s recent military operations in Palestine's Gaza and Lebanon as a grim preview of the future. “Israel’s war in Gaza is the first artificial intelligence war in world history,” he contended.

“AI was used to identify targets, which has turned Gaza into a wasteland. In Lebanon, AI-driven operations targeted pagers and walkie-talkies, resulting in the death or injury of 5,000 Hezbollah members within a minute,” he said referring to Israel’s unprecedented strike against the Lebanon-based armed using paging devices in September.

This shift toward AI-driven warfare, combined with the use of drones and cyber tactics, signals a dangerous evolution in military conflict. Gerges expressed grave concern about the lack of regulation: “The genie is out of the box. Neither Israel nor the great powers are listening to calls for accountability.”

Despite the grim scenarios, Gerges sees hope in collective action led by middle powers. “The world’s interest lies in creating links between nations in the Global South to build resilience against the fallout from great power rivalries,” he said, urging urgent reforms to prevent future crises.

The professor’s insights are a wake-up call to the international community. As conflicts escalate and technology heightens the stakes, the need for diplomacy, cooperation, and innovative leadership has never been more critical.

This moment, as Gerges reminds us, demands vigilance, courage, and a renewed commitment to peace in an increasingly fragmented world.