What do Israelis really want: A hostage release deal or an end to Gaza war?

As political tension and public discontent escalate in Israel over the Gaza war, mass protests have engulfed the streets of Tel Aviv and other major cities, with various groups united by two common demands: the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas and the ouster of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from office.

The Prime Minister is now facing a lot of pressure due to his lack of notable actions to secure the release of Israeli hostages held by the Palestinian resistance group Hamas for over seven months, except for a limited hostage swap during a week-long ceasefire in November.

The families of the hostages are playing a significant role in the recent anti-government protests, which have drawn tens of thousands of people urging the government to accept a ceasefire deal with Hamas after the group announced on Monday that it is prepared to halt attacks.

While joining millions of protestors worldwide in demanding a ceasefire, the motivation of the Israeli public differs, primarily revolving around the release of approximately 130 hostages held in Gaza.

The besieged enclave, which many human rights experts say has been witnessing "a genocide", has seen the deaths of nearly 35,000 Palestinians since October 7, with 70 percent of them being babies, children, and women.

However, it seems these staggering numbers aren't as significant to the Israeli public as some 130 hostages.

Deal or revenge?

While the October 7 attack may have potentially amplified right-wing sentiments in Israeli society, Netanyahu and the Israeli military's evident failure in the Gaza war to achieve their promised objectives have driven supporters away from the most right-wing government in the country’s history.

As a result, Israelis desire a new government to finish what Netanyahu initiated in Gaza once the hostages are safely returned home.

“Most of the Israeli public supports Netanyahu’s policy, although support for him personally has declined,” says Alon Liel, the former general director of the Israeli foreign ministry.

“They want a hostage deal without a permanent end to the war, so they expect the war to continue even after the hostages are released,” he tells TRT World.

An Israeli opinion poll conducted by the Jewish People Policy Institute in February this year found a drop in trust in the Israeli government from 38 percent to 34 percent compared to last month.

The survey also indicated that if the choice were between ousting Hamas and returning the hostages, 47 percent of Israeli Jews would opt to oust Hamas, while 25 percent would choose to return the hostages.

While the release of hostages may have been prioritised over victory against Hamas after February, the increasingly right-leaning Israeli public may be more inclined towards seeking “revenge” in the absence of hostages after a temporary ceasefire.

Caught in the middle

Netanyahu is caught between the pressure of an increasing number of protestors, led by hostage families urging a ceasefire, and the demands of far-right parties within his coalition to reject any deal with Hamas and proceed with a Rafah invasion.

His tenure as prime minister relies on upholding a coalition with extreme right and ultra-Orthodox parties in parliament. His cabinet has lately exerted considerable pressure on him over different expectations.

The government “will not have the right to continue to exist” if it blocks a proposed hostage swap with Hamas, War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz said last week after Defence Minister Yoav Gallant announced that an Israeli operation in Rafah is close.

"Entering Rafah is important in the long struggle against Hamas, (but) the return of our hostages, who were abandoned by the October 7 government, is urgent and of far greater importance,” Gantz wrote on X.

Amidst the internal debates within the coalition cabinet, Netanyahu purportedly rebuffed criticism from far-right ministers, asserting to cabinet members, "Nobody needs to tell me what to do or how to do it."

"Things are happening and will happen," he said, emphasising his expectation of unity from the table, as Israeli media reported.

The demands of the far-right wing in the government, calling for the continuation of attacks on Gaza and the rejection of any ceasefire, align with the perspectives of around 15 percent of their voting constituency, says Middle East expert and researcher on Palestine-Israel studies Haydar Oruc.

Even as the prime minister presents these demands as internal pressures upon himself, what might now alter the dynamics is the public becoming aware that he is actually employing them as a pretext to prolong his tenure, positioning himself as someone striving to maintain a balance between factions in domestic politics.

“When the government's marginal decisions are criticised either within his own party's base or on the international stage, attributing the blame to the far-right not only reduces the cost but also alleviates pressure on Netanyahu,” Oruc tells TRT World.

“Thus, the pressure exerted by the far-right appears to be a convenient tool for him. In this way, Netanyahu has also created a legitimacy space for himself, albeit controversial.”

After he leaves

Thousands of Israelis who flooded the streets near the Knesset in Jerusalem on Sunday were not only demanding the release of hostages but also advocating for early elections, which are scheduled for 2026.

The mass protests, some experts argue, do not necessarily signify a societal or political change within the country.

No left-wing is left in Israeli politics now, says former Israeli official Alon Liel.

“The government will stay a right-wing government with some support from the centre, and only the international community –especially the US, UN, and EU– can change this picture,” he adds.

A societal shift can occur only if the ongoing genocide case at the International Court of Justice results in verdicts against Israel, branding it as a genocidal state, Haydar Oruc says as he believes that this way, not only current political/military leaders could face prosecution but also an international isolation could initiate.

“Apart from this scenario, other formulas do not seem likely to lead to a change in Israeli politics and society.”

What's widely agreed upon is that the primary concern for the Israeli public, and therefore what is likely to change soon, is Netanyahu's leadership.

“If the opposition were to win the upcoming elections, it would likely maintain a right-wing foreign policy due to its partnership in the current war government and its alignment with the extreme right's stances on the Palestinian conflict,” Salahaddin Awde, researcher on Israeli politics, tells TRT World.

“The anticipated or feasible change would solely involve the departure of Netanyahu, with the continuation of division, extremism, and a further shift towards the right.”