What do the European elections mean for the war in Gaza?

As tens of millions of people vote in the European Parliament (EP) elections, experts say the far-right political groups can gain a significant number of seats considering the success of these parties in their home countries.

A resurgent far-right would not only affect European politics but have an impact on international affairs as some of their candidates have expressed support for Israel in the ongoing deadly war in Gaza.

Even though some leftist European Union lawmakers have taken a stand in favour of the Palestinians, they don’t have the required strength to impact the EU policies, which have established deep-seated relations with Tel Aviv, experts say.

For instance, the European economic powerhouses Germany and France continue to lend support to the Jewish state with deals such as the Trade Association Agreement with Israel.

“The EU does not want to be too involved in what is happening in Gaza, certainly not before the elections, as they are afraid to position themselves one way or another,” Constantin Stefanou, a professor at the Institute of Advanced Legal Studies in London, tells TRT World.

Here is how the allocation of seats in EP matters for Palestine.

The Israeli influence

The European Parliament is currently led by a coalition of the centre-right European People’s Party and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats.

Now, the far-right group, Identity and Democracy is expected to make significant inroads in the parliament.

“If European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) were to overcome their differences and agree on a common platform, that would make the new group potentially the 2nd largest in the EP, giving it power, influence and authority,” Dimitris Tsarouhas, research director at Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, tells TRT World.

Soon after the war in Gaza broke out on October 7, the ID group declared its support for Israel.

Some centrist, leftist, and socialist parties generally support the rights of Palestinians but they are unlikely to dominate the parliament, says Sofia Vasilopoulou, Professor of European Politics at King’s College London.

A battle of narratives

Like the divergent views of various political groups in the European Parliament, important European leaders have expressed different opinions on the Israel-Palestine war.

For instance, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen - who was elected by the outgoing European Parliament - supports Israel while the bloc’s foreign police chief Josep Borrell has spoken in favour of the Palestinians.

Ursula von der Leyen was behind the decision to put up the Israeli flag on the commission’s building in Brussels after the October 7 Hamas attack on Israeli settlements.

“That provoked a very strong reaction, both within her own institution, amongst the people who worked for the commission, and in many of the member states as well, because their argument was, she does not speak for the European Union collectively here,” says John O’Brennan, the director of the Centre for European and Eurasian Studies at Maynooth University.

A week later, she travelled to Israel to declare her support for Tel Aviv even as bombs dropped on civilians in Gaza.

“That was a dreadful error on her part, it probably reflects the thinking amongst German politicians of her age and older, that guilt that Germans carry in respect of the Holocaust,” O’Brennan says.

“It essentially gives Israel a free pass to do whatever it wants. Even if Israel is doing many of the things that the Germans did to the Jews of Europe during World War II.”

Von der Leyen is again the candidate for the commission’s president.

“Last time, in 2019, she only made it through the European Parliament vote,” O’Brennan says.

“She had only nine votes to spare, and those votes included votes of the Europe’s centre-left parties and centrist parties,” he further explains.

“Now, they have come out and said for a whole variety of reasons, they may not support her this time around. Her European People's Party is likely to come back with only about 160 to 170 seats, so she needs another 100 plus in order to be elected,” he says

He thinks it's less likely that the socialists and democrats, in particular Josep Borrell, will support her.

Her support for Gaza can potentially drive away those MEPs who supported her last time, he says.

Clara Portela, a professor of politics at the Law School of the University of Valencia, echoes the reason in a similar vein, expressing that she has failed to condemn Israeli actions, which might weaken her support inside the EP.

O'Brennan says another reason von der Leyen can possibly lose support is that she has been openly flirting with the far right group led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

All this makes it difficult for von der Leyen to retain the office of the EU president.