What does Ukrainian cross-border attack on Russia's Kursk region mean?

A Ukrainian blitzkrieg deep into Russia’s Kursk region has opened a new front in the more than two-year-long conflict and left Moscow stunned by to the ferocity of the incursion.

According to Russian authorities and some American war monitoring groups, an estimated 1,000-strong Ukrainian force backed by tanks and armoured vehicles launched the incursion into the Kursk region on Tuesday, prompting local authorities to evacuate civilians from the area.

Russian President Vladimir Putin described the Ukrainian attack as a “large-scale provocation” which targeted civilian buildings and even ambulances, according to the Kremlin.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised the attack, saying, "Russia brought the war to our land and should feel what it has done."

While Ukraine has targeted Russian territory with drones and other military means in the past, the ongoing operation appears to go further than previous attacks, killing and injuring some civilians, according to Russia.

"Geolocated footage and Russian claims indicate that Ukrainian forces continued rapid advances further into Kursk Oblast on August 8, and Ukrainian forces are reportedly present in areas as far as 35 kilometres from the international border with Sumy Oblast (in Ukraine),” said a report from the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based research centre.

Experts think that Ukraine aims to distract Russian focus on other fronts, where Moscow’s forces have recently made some significant advances, boosting the morale of its troops.

‘Window of opportunity’

“It is probably a ‘spoiling attack’ or a diversionary tactic aimed at drawing Russian units and resources away from more vital sectors of the front,” says Edward Erickson, a former American military officer and a retired professor of Military History from the Department of War Studies at the Marine Corps University.

Ukraine has taken advantage of a "window of opportunity" in the Kursk region, identifying a weak spot in the Russian defences, according to Erickson. Some experts also point out that pro-Kiev forces are trying to destroy a railway line in the region to prevent Russian forces from transporting their forces to the Kharkiv region in eastern Ukraine, where intense fighting continues.

“They want to make the Russians nervous about defending their border. This will pull Russian soldiers into defensive sectors when Russia needs every soldier in an offensive posture,” Erickson tells TRT World.

Other experts draw attention to the fact that the Sudzha gas station is located in the Kursk region. Even during the war, Russian gas has continued to run through Ukrainian territory to reach Europe while its own supply level has significantly decreased. The Sudzha station is the last transit point within Russia, and Ukrainian forces might aim to cut Moscow’s supply route.

The Kursk nuclear power plant is also located near the ongoing fighting area.

“There have been similar precedents before, in particular, in the Belgorod region. There were several attempts by sabotage and reconnaissance groups to enter the Kursk region,” says Kamran Gasanov, a political analyst at the Russian International Affairs Council, a Moscow-based think-tank.

The warfront is so large, and “such breakthroughs are possible from time to time” because Russia cannot guard every centimetre of its border, adding that such small forces can not achieve real and sustainable success, according to Gasanov.

Erickson also believes that “a regimental-sized local attack with no apparent tactical objective” can not impact the overall operational situation in the Russia-Ukraine war.

What is Ukraine’s message?

Kiev aims to demonstrate to Moscow that Ukraine can penetrate Russian territory in retaliation to Kremlin’s attacks on Ukrainian territories, according to experts.

But if Kiev aims to stretch Russian forces on different fronts, Gasanov says the Ukrainian forces around Kursk are extremely few, which makes it difficult to achieve that goal.

But with the Kursk advance, Kiev might also pursue “a political motive - to try to capture part of the territory, then exchange it for those that Russia took,” Gasanov tells TRT World.

In terms of information war, the Kursk incursion may also be an attempt to distract the attention of global media “from Ukrainian defeats on other fronts” in a show of sheer force to the West that Kiev deserves to receive “further supplies of Western weapons,” says Gasanov.

Erickson also holds similar views. “Ukraine's attack is sort of a ‘proof of concept’ to demonstrate that it has the capability and capacity to launch cross-border ground attacks into Russia proper,” says the American military analyst.

Gasanov sees another possible internal motive in Ukrainian incursion, referring to a power struggle inside Ukrainian armed forces.

Ukraine’s newly appointed Commander-in-Chief Olexsandr Syrksky, tasked with defeating the mighty Russian army, could try to show that he is up to the job. In order to keep his post, “he needs to win a small victorious war,” says Gasanov.

Where the war moves

In recent months, Russia has captured significant Ukrainian territory as the country, which the West has accused as an aggressor, has begun regaining some of its confidence both on the battlefields and global stage, particularly with the explosion of the Hamas-Israel war in Gaza.

Russia has criticised the West for allowing Israel to use disproportional force against Palestinians while contradictorily accusing Moscow of doing the same to Ukrainians.

“The war is in a stalemate, much like 1917 during WWI, as neither side has the resources to tip the balance in a decisive way,” views Erickson. Despite recent Russian gains, “Ukraine has the geographic advantage of interior lines of communications which greatly increases its combat effectiveness,” says Erickson.

Interior lines of communications refer to a war strategy in which “an army centrally situated” fights against divided hostile forces as Ukraine now does to Russia.

Both Ukraine and Russia have powerful backers to continue to fight with each other. “Given continued Western support to Ukraine and continued Chinese, Iranian, and North Korean support to Russia, the stalemate will continue,” says the military analyst.

While countries like Türkiye have worked hard to achieve a sustainable ceasefire between the two countries, it has not materialised into a political reality yet.

Russian mood

“The general opinion in Russia about the war is different,” says Gasanov.

There are “hardliners” who call for fighting until a total victory has been achieved with the capitulation of Kiev and the replacement of the pro-Western Ukrainian government, says Gasanov.

There are also “moderate assessments - to achieve peace if Kiev and Washington agree,” says the Russian military analyst, adding that the Kremlin is “ready for peace” if its conditions are fulfilled.

“Putin outlined them: Russia maintaining control over four regions, Ukraine's refusal to join NATO, denazification of Ukraine and the lifting of Western sanctions against Russia.”

According to Erickson, Russians are “hoping” that former President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly shown an unwillingness to back Kiev against Moscow, will win the November election.

“A Trump victory would almost certainly result in the withdrawal of American military assistance to Ukraine. A Kamala Harris win might just convince Putin to open negotiations,” says the analyst.