What is Russia seeking as Trump plays peacemaker in Ukraine war?

As the war in Ukraine nears its third anniversary on February 24, hopes for a negotiated settlement have been rekindled. This week, the American and Russian presidents agreed to meet and negotiate a peace deal, following a crucial phone call.

US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly claimed he could end the war in 24 hours, reached out to Vladimir Putin, boasting that the Russian leader “even used my very strong campaign motto of, ‘COMMON SENSE’.” Trump asserted that “this effort will lead to a successful conclusion, hopefully soon!”

The Kremlin welcomed Trump’s initiative.

Dmitry Peskov, its spokesman, responded to Trump’s initiative by saying that the “position of the current (US) administration is much more appealing.” Other Russian officials and publications also praised the outreach.

But the message from Washington is not entirely conciliatory.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, US Vice President JD Vance made clear that military options, including sending American soldiers to Ukraine, still remain “on the table.”

It’s better to talk to a president who seeks “a compromise” with Russia without declaring “ultimatums”, says Sergei Markov, a Russian political scientist and former advisor to Putin, referring to the recent Trump-Putin communication.

“Donald Trump has no ultimatums,” Markov tells TRT World, adding that the US president’s willingness to compromise is “a very good result” for Russia. It’s also a good development from the Russian perspective that the Trump-Putin communication ended “demonisation” of the Russian leader, already marks a significant shift from Washington’s previous stance.

Unlike the former President Biden, Trump talked to Putin “with respect”, which can help resolve many issues between the two countries, says Markov.

The outreach appears to be yielding results.

Trump’s reach to Putin also indicates that Moscow’s political isolation, which “was not successful despite Western sanctions”, will come to an end, according to Markov.

On Thursday, Trump signalled his support for reintegrating Russia into the G7, saying, “I’d love to have them back. I think it was a mistake to throw them out.”

The two leaders have also agreed to establish a US-Russia working group, which will prepare a summit—potentially in Saudi Arabia or the UAE, Markov adds.

“The choice of Saudi Arabia as the venue may be influenced by the ICC warrant against Putin, but it also reflects the shifting geopolitical landscape, where traditional Western allies are increasingly being sidelined—a particularly concerning development for Europe,” says Daria Daniels Skodnik, a political scientist and former Deputy Commandant and Dean of the NATO Defence College in Rome.

Russian demands

Moscow’s expectations go beyond ending the war. It seeks a fundamental shift in Ukraine’s geopolitical alignment.

According to Markov, Russians seek not only an end to the Ukraine hostilities but also a resolution to its problems with the Western alliance from NATO’s expansion across its eastern flank to end the current Zelenskyy government’s plans for joining the Atlantic alliance.

Trump appears sympathetic. He has suggested that Ukraine cannot join NATO so long as long as “a country in Russia’s position” exists.

“Ukraine was never going to seriously join NATO from a US perspective, even if some of the European vassals do think so,” Gregory Simons, an expert in Russian politics, tells TRT World.

“But the Biden administration would never say this openly, but was happy to string Ukraine along and keep them as a proxy against Russia,” Simons adds.

Unlike Biden, Trump “has no interest in Ukraine” and aims to remind Volodymyr Zelenskyy that his country “is an object, not a subject, of events.”

But Dr Daniels finds this approach dangerous for Europe’s future.

“By signaling major concessions before negotiations even begin, Washington risks emboldening Russia while alienating key allies. A peace deal that compromises Ukraine’s sovereignty and security would not only be a strategic failure but would also threaten the stability of Europe for years to come,” she tells TRT World.

Markov says that Ukraine should adopt neutrality, akin to Austria, enshrining it in its constitution through an internationally backed treaty.

All Ukrainian territories under Moscow’s control should be Russian, says Markov.

By most estimates, this amounts to around 20% of Ukraine’s land.

Trump’s defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, has already acknowledged that Ukraine cannot reclaim all its lost territory, which he called an “illusionary goal” that will “only prolong the war and cause more suffering.”

The Russian government justifies its claims by invoking its duty to protect Russian-speaking populations in the Donbas, a region controlled by pro-Russian separatists even before the full-scale invasion, says Markov.

Four Ukrainian oblasts are currently under Russian control.

These regions have been annexed by Moscow, under the guise of referendums, though Kiev and the West refuse to recognise the Russian annexation from Crimea to Donbass.

“It’s not about territories,” Markov says. “It’s about people who need to live in safety.”

However, he concedes that cities like Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which remain under Ukrainian control, could be subject to negotiation since their residents are not Russian citizens.

Beyond territorial concessions, Russia also demands that Ukraine be demilitarised to prevent any future conflict, according to Markov.

“The Ukrainian army should have no technical and physical opportunity to wage aggression against Donbass again,” says Markov.

That means no artillery, no rockets—nothing that could threaten Russian positions.

Moscow also expects all Western sanctions to be lifted.

On the domestic front

In addition to geopolitical demands, Russia is pressing for changes within Ukraine.

Markov says that Russian should become Ukraine's second official language.

Kiev should also reinstate the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOCMP), which was recently banned for its ties to the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC).

Moscow also wants Ukraine to release pro-Russian political prisoners. “They should move from prisons to the Ukrainian parliament,” says Markov.

Finally, he calls for an end to the glorification of historical figures like Stepan Bandera, whom Russia portrays as a Nazi collaborator. This, he argues, would be part of Ukraine’s “de-Nazification.”

No deal on Kursk?

Zelenskyy recently suggested the idea of a land swap: exchanging Ukrainian-controlled parts of Russia’s Kursk region for territories currently held by Moscow.

The Kremlin has dismissed this outright.

“Russia does not want any negotiations over Kursk,” says Markov. “Ukrainian soldiers there will either withdraw, be killed, or become prisoners of war.”