What President Sisi’s Ankara visit means for Türkiye-Egypt ties?

Türkiye and Egypt, two powerhouses of the Middle East, are moving forward to deepen bilateral ties as part of the normalisation process launched three years ago as Ankara prepares to host Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el Sisi on September 4.

In February, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Egypt, meeting his Egyptian counterpart Sisi and signing several deals on tourism, culture and education, hoping to increase bilateral trade to at least $15 billion annually.

During the Cairo meeting, both leaders agreed to develop a working relationship on various issues, ranging from developing common ground on the Gaza war to addressing differences in sharing the eastern Mediterranean’s rich gas reserves.

Experts assess that next week’s summit in Ankara aims to further the ground laid in Cairo six months ago.

“Sisi's visit to Türkiye marks a significant thaw in relations after years of tension between the two countries,” says Kaan Devecioglu, Coordinator for North African Studies at ORSAM, an Ankara-based Turkish think-tank.

While Turkish-Egyptian ties deteriorated after a military coup ousted the democratically-elected President Mohammed Morsi in 2013, the two sides have de-escalated tensions since early 2021.

“Regional developments such as energy cooperation in the eastern Mediterranean, conflicts in Libya and Gaza, and economic concerns have prompted both countries to reassess their ties. Sisi's visit can be seen as part of a broader strategy by both countries to stabilise their regional positions and secure mutual benefits through diplomatic engagement,” Devecioglu tells TRT World.

Ismail Numan Telci, an associate professor of international relations and lecturer at the Middle East Institute at Sakarya University, also sees Sisi’s official visit to Ankara as a positive result of the normalisation process.

Regional crises have pushed Türkiye and Egypt to pursue closer policies, making both countries recognise that “cooperation rather than competition” would serve their respective interests better, which has been “a turning point” for Cairo and Ankara to evolve into “a foreign policy line” of normalisation, Telci tells TRT World.

The Gaza front

Israel’s cruel treatment of Gaza’s Palestinian population has created a big outcry in Egypt, which neighbours the besieged enclave and once had territorial control over it from 1957 to the 1967 war.

Türkiye, whose predecessor state, the Ottoman Empire, ruled the Middle East, including Palestine, for four centuries until a Western invasion of the region during WWI, has been one of the most vocal critics of Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.

Both countries have also historically played a mediating role between Israel and Palestinian groups.

“Egypt has often played a mediating role in ceasefire deals due to its geographical proximity and influence over Hamas. Türkiye, with its strong stance in support of Palestinian rights and active diplomatic outreach, could complement Egypt's efforts,” says Devecioglu.

If the two countries can prioritise humanitarian goals over geo-political differences, aligning their interests and strategies in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a “coalition of the willing” might emerge, according to Devecioglu.

Across Palestine and the Arab world, many have high expectations from Türkiye and Egypt, believing that they can “play a critical role in stopping Israel” in Gaza, Telci says.

“The possible alliance of Türkiye and Egypt on Gaza could have a deterrent effect on Tel Aviv,” he underlines, adding that Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, also need to show more support.

Sami al Arian, a leading Palestinian professor and the director of the Center for Islam and Global Affairs at Istanbul Sabahattin Zaim University, also sees “a potential” partnership for Egypt and Türkiye to defend Palestinian rights in Gaza but believes the nature of Egyptian ties with the US might impair the formation of a possible united front against Israel.

Since the 1973 Yom Kippur war between Egypt and Israel, Cairo has long been a top destination for US foreign aid.

Last year, Cairo was among the top five receivers of US aid alongside Ukraine, Israel and Jordan. It will be difficult for Egypt to take such a stance alongside Türkiye, which requires “a major break” from the US, Arian tells TRT World.

“If Türkiye is capable of pulling Egypt to take a more positive stance on Gaza, that would be a major feat, a major accomplishment,” says the professor for the future of the Palestinian cause.

Regional partnership

Despite the goodwill exhibited by both the Egyptian and Turkish leadership, there are some obstacles to developing a partnership on regional issues, according to Devecioglu, who pointed out differences over the Libyan conflict.

“Both countries are concerned about the instability in Libya, although they have supported opposing sides,” he says but adds that both countries have also shown “a willingness to de-escalate tensions”, being worried about the threats posed by militant groups and recognising the need for regional security.

Eastern Mediterranean’s gas reserves, which require coastal states to find common ground to designate their respective maritime borders to extract minerals underneath the sea, have motivated both Egypt and Türkiye to develop a constructive engagement, says Devecioglu.

Cairo, which initially developed partnerships with Greece, the Greek Cypriot administration and other regional states, has incrementally warmed to Türkiye’s better offer regarding maritime rights. Both countries’ short-term interests require them to cooperate in the Eastern Mediterranean to share gas and develop trade, says Arian.

“Cooperation in this area could include joint exploration and development projects or coordination on energy transit routes, which would enhance energy security and economic gains for both countries,” says Devecioglu.

“Mutual respect for each country's strategic interests and an understanding of regional power dynamics are critical for a sustainable partnership,” adds Devecioglu, referring to various political disputes in the Horn of Africa and ongoing civil wars in Sudan, Libya and Yemen.

Türkiye, which is mediating between Somalia and Ethiopia, might also potentially help address grievances between Ethiopia and Egypt regarding the former's Grand Renaissance Dam project on the Nile River. US inaction on the dam project has frustrated Cairo.

“The deepening disputes in North Africa and the Horn of Africa concern Egypt much more closely,” says Telci. This might also lead Cairo to cooperate more with Ankara.

Both states have long-term interests “to work together” across North and East Africa, says Arian.

“I hope Türkiye is capable or able rather to convince the Egyptians to work together on these issues to make the region more stable and more prosperous and, more importantly, more powerful to confront Zionist and Western attempts to hegemonise the region,” he says.