What the Lebanese truce says about Israel's operation against Hezbollah

The Netanyahu government called a 60-day ceasefire with Beirut after more than two months of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, which has left more than 3,700 Lebanese dead and nearly 15,700 wounded.

During his ceasefire announcement, the Israeli prime minister outlined three reasons for the ceasefire deal: the need to focus on Iran, gaining time for the delivery of weapons from Western states and reducing the number of Israel’s war fronts to concentrate on Gaza exclusively.

While Netanyahu was announcing his ceasefire deal, Hezbollah supporters waved the group’s flags as they returned to their homes in southern Lebanon.

“The ceasefire is a tactical success, showcasing Hezbollah’s significant losses and Israel’s operational strength. However, it poses strategic uncertainties as Hezbollah may regroup, leaving long-term security unresolved and public sentiment in Israel mixed,” says Daria Daniels Skodnik, a political scientist and former Deputy Commandant and Dean of the NATO Defense College in Rome, Italy.

Tuba Yildiz, an academic and expert on Lebanese politics and factions, says that both sides have their own reasons to declare a victory. “The declaration of the ceasefire is seen as a victory for both Israel and Hezbollah. Israel managed to isolate the Gaza front by guaranteeing that there would be no attack from Lebanon. This is a strategic gain for Netanyahu,” she says.

Since October 7, Hezbollah and Israel have launched attacks across the border as the Lebanese group put pressure on Tel Aviv, conditioning its cessation of hostilities with the Jewish state to an end of Netanyahu’s war on Gaza. But the ceasefire deal does not require Israel to stop its Gaza war, which is a concession from Hezbollah.

“Israel’s far-right government remains committed to controlling Gaza and the West Bank while continuing settlement expansion. The Hezbollah truce does not alter Israel’s hardline stance against Hamas,” Skodnik tells TRT World.

Not concerned with Hezbollah attacks, Israel will “continue to increase its pressure on Gaza, but it is difficult at this stage to say that Hamas can take a step back in its war with Israel, reducing the issue only to a prisoner exchange,” says Yildiz. She projects further Israeli atrocities against Palestinians if Tel Aviv receives more military support from the US.

A wavering Israel?

But Netanyahu also hesitated to declare a total victory over Hezbollah despite the fact that Tel Aviv attacks in the last two months have killed the group’s two leaders, Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine, as well as many top commanders, destroying much of its stockpiles of rockets, one of the biggest in the world for a non-state actor.

As a Haaretz columnist pointed out, there are no provisions in the ceasefire deal “to disarm Hezbollah”, which was Netanyahu’s original objective to attack Lebanon. The agreement did not offer “a buffer zone in southern Lebanon” either, wrote Alon Pinkas.

“It is a success for Hezbollah that the agreement is no different from the 2006 agreement. As a matter of fact, the agreement made in 2006, when Hezbollah was very strong, is almost the same as the agreement made with Hezbollah, which has lost much of its power today,” Yildiz tells TRT World.

The ceasefire deal shows that Israel “cannot destroy Hezbollah”, which continues to pose a threat to Tel Aviv, according to Yildiz. The military situation may also be read that Israel “cannot exert pressure that would completely disarm Hezbollah,” Yildiz adds.

Skodnik says that the Netanyahu government “sought the ceasefire to avoid overextending its military while fighting on multiple fronts” ranging from Lebanon to Gaza and other areas like Yemen, mitigating “international criticism over high civilian casualties”. Netanyahu aims to “stabilise” the situation before the Trump administration takes office on January 20, she says.

Yildiz has a similar view. “The cost of fighting in both Gaza and Lebanon began to become too much” for Israel, particularly due to the rockets launched by Hezbollah, making Israel spend millions of dollars for the Iron Dome and other air-defence systems as well as for its two ground operations.

“It will be a relief for Israel to be on a single front economically,” she says.

In a previous TRT World interview, Dan Steinbock, the writer of the recently published book, The Fall of Israel, argued that the cost of Israel’s war on Gaza will exceed $50 billion, according to estimates, putting Tel Aviv under enormous economic pressure. Unlike the Six-Day War of 1967, Israel’s war on Gaza has continued for more than 400 days, which “no economy can take” even with the US help, he adds.

Yildiz also draws attention to increasing internal criticism of the Netanyahu government’s focus on Lebanon rather than rescuing the Israeli captives held by Hamas in Gaza tunnels.

While Tel Aviv has lost more soldiers on Lebanese ground due to Hezbollah’s continuing resistance, the group continued to target northern Israel, preventing Israelis from returning to their homes, she says. This whole situation has put much pressure on the Netanyahu government to sign a ceasefire that will allow to calm Israeli society, she adds.

Will Israel comply with the ceasefire?

In the absence of a diplomatic breakthrough between Israel and the Palestinians, many doubt the durability of the Lebanese ceasefire between Tel Aviv and Hezbollah. Netanyahu has been infamous for violating ceasefires and dragging on peace deals.

In the next two months, Israel needs to maintain a relatively peaceful environment “in order to recover” as the most important burning objective continues to be Gaza where it aims “to reach a final outcome” with Hamas favouring Tel Aviv, according to Yildiz.

After Gaza, Israel will focus on Iran and Hezbollah, says Yildiz. “Therefore, it is not possible for Israel to reach a full consensus on Hezbollah. However, the road map for this will be determined by the plan Netanyahu will make with Trump,” she says, adding that it will be easier for Tel Aviv to attack Lebanon after Hezbollah withdraws from the south.

“Israel is likely to comply as long as Hezbollah avoids provocations. However, internal dissent, such as criticism from far-right Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and geopolitical considerations, including Netanyahu’s plans to reshape the region under Trump’s presidency, could challenge adherence,” says Skodnik.

“Tactical victories alone won’t secure long-term stability without political and diplomatic solutions.”