What the UAE-Israel deal means for Iran's security

For many Iranians, it is no surprise that the UAE has officially made peace with Israel.

Some Arab states, particularly Gulf countries, and Iran have long accused each other of having secret relations with Israel — an allegation they would hurl to discredit each other’s public standing in the Muslim world. 

Finally, however, the recent UAE-Israel deal made it clear that it was not Iran but the Gulf states that have had secret ties with Israel. 

“I don't believe that the recent UAE-Israel deal changes anything in or for Iran. Israel was always in a secret relationship with the UAE. The recent deal just made it publicly recognisable!” said Fatima A Karimkhan, a senior reporter at Iranian Student News Agency (IRNA), an Iranian state-funded media outlet.  

“No one in Iran expected something else from a country like UAE, especially in the current situation of the region,” Karimkhan told TRT World. 

Mohammed Marandi, an Iranian-American professor and political analyst, agrees with Karimkhan, saying that nothing has changed for Iran after the deal. 

“The Emirates is not a threat to Iran. The Emirates are very weak and vulnerable. Nothing Israel can contribute to the Emirates (sic). Israel is not a threat to Iran. The only threat to Iran is the United States,” says Marandi. 

The primary broker behind the deal, though, is the US. The new arrangement allows it to further corner Tehran across the region.

The pro-Israeli Donald Trump administration has worked hard to limit Iran’s influence across the region from withdrawing from the landmark 'nuclear deal' to imposing harsh sanctions on Tehran while allowing Israel to hit Iranian-affiliated forces in both Syria and Iraq. 

In Palestine, where Iran supports both Hamas and Islamic Jihad against Israel as part of its Resistance Front forces, the US recognises Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, promoting the 'Deal of the Century, which attempts to legalise Israeli sovereignty over Palestinians in what can be best described as an apartheid state. 

With the new UAE-Israel deal, the Trump administration might want to show Iran that it needs to bow down to the US pressure if it wants relief across the region. 

After the deal, Oman, another Gulf country, also signalled that it could normalise relations with Israel. Experts expect that more Gulf countries, such as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, could soon also conjure up positive statements towards Israel, showing their intentions to develop formal relations with the Zionist state. 

While the deal is no surprise to Iranians, Tehran is still well aware of its security implications. 

“In Iran, authorities said that they will follow the situation and regional allies closely. There are some security concerns about the deal, but it is not bigger than the concerns about US bases in the Gulf,” Karimkhan noted. 

“In one of the very first comments, Iran's military commanders warned that if anything unusual happens in the Persian Gulf, Iran will keep the UAE responsible for that,” the Iranian journalist recounted. 

Iran’s moderate President, Hassan Rouhani, condemned the deal, labelling it as a betrayal and “huge mistake”.  Kayhan, a hardline Iranian newspaper, also said that the deal will turn the UAE “into a legitimate and easy target.”

Seeing growing Iranian anger from the other side of the Gulf, the UAE authorities also appear to address Tehran’s security concerns, saying that the deal has nothing to do with the non-Arab Shia-majority country. 

"The UAE-Israeli peace treaty is a sovereign decision not directed at Iran. We say this and repeat it. We do not accept interference in our decisions," wrote Anwar Gargash, the UAE foreign minister, on Twitter on Monday.

“Definitely, the Emirates did not want this [the deal] to happen. They accepted it under the pressure of Trump, whose reasoning [for the deal] is simply the US elections,” Marandi told TRT World. 

Like Marandi, Karimkhan also does not predict any kind of escalations between Iran and its enemies as the US elections approach. 

“Israel would love to make things more complicated in the Gulf so they can set up more political agendas against Iran across the region. But neither they nor other Gulf countries want a clash in the region,” Karimkhan analysed. 

“The international community does not recognise Iran as a country which is looking forward to a clash. These provocative actions will not lead Iran to that,” she concludes.