What’s behind the recent surge in terrorist attacks in Pakistan?

Pakistan’s terrorism challenge has intensified in recent weeks and months as many gains made against terrorist groups in a slew of military operations since 2014 seem to be slipping away.

More than 50 workers belonging to a government allied religious-political party – the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) Fazal faction – were killed and 80 plus wounded on July 30 when a suicide bomber blew himself up near the make-shift stage at a gathering in northwestern Bajaur region – close to Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan. A day later, Daesh-Khorasan claimed responsibility. This was the fifth suicide assault in Pakistan in just one month.

The targeting of the JUI-Fazal appears jarring as the party once supported resistance of foreign occupation in Afghanistan. But the tide has shifted. Daesh is even going after the pious turban-clad fighters of the Afghan Taliban.

Yet, many in Pakistan, including the top government and military officials, blame Kabul for not doing enough to tackle those terrorists, including the anti-Islamabad Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), who use Afghanistan’s soil to plan and execute attacks. This reflects the growing chasms between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban – once dubbed as close allies and proxies of Islamabad.

The number of terrorist attacks increased since last year after the banned TTP ended last year’s ceasefire following the change of the government in Pakistan, said Abdullah Khan, managing director of an Islamabad-based think tank, Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS).

“In the first seven months of 2023, there have been 18 suicide terror attacks compared to 15 in 2022 and just four in 2021,” he said.

Newspaper reports say that more than 200 people were killed and at least 450 injured in these attacks.

Khan said that the gains made in military operation Zarb-e-Azb, launched in 2014, and operation Radd-ul-Fasaad, that started in 2017, are being lost.

Security and political analysts blame the country’s continuing political instability for the surge in terrorism, particularly in northwestern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and southwestern Balochistan provinces.

The government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif remains bogged down by the country’s teetering economy and the challenge which arrested former premier Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) poses to it.

Security officials, however, blame hostile countries for working against Pakistan.

“The latest attack was carried out when China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng was in Islamabad to mark 10 years of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC),” said a senior security official, requesting not to be named.

“The surge in terrorism is always linked with attempts to derail the CPEC and unfortunately Afghanistan is being used for this purpose,” he said, echoing the official explanation on the rising incidents of terrorism.

While in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa most terrorist attacks are being blamed on the TTP and Daesh-K, in Balochistan authorities say separatist groups are carrying out attacks.

According to the Inter-Services Public Relations — the media wing of the Pakistan Armed Forces — by the last week of June, security forces had conducted 13,619 operations in which 1,172 terrorists were killed or arrested.

The security forces lost 95 soldiers. On an average, the armed forces are engaging in 77 operations a day, the media wing said.

A retired Lt. General, who had served in the KP, while speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that since the departure of the US-led NATO forces from Afghanistan in August 2021, the terrorism matrix in the region had changed.

“Till the presence of the American and the NATO troops in Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban were seen by many as waging a holy war against the occupation forces. The Afghan Taliban used the porous border between Pakistan and Afghanistan to slip into our country and then go back to fight the foreign troops and their local allies along with many Pakistani tribesmen,” he said.

“Now the tide has turned as militants belonging to the TTP and other groups are coming from Afghanistan and are being joined by the Afghans.”

For example, Pakistan identified three of the five terrorists involved in the July 16 attack on Zhob Cantonment, Balochistan, as Afghan nationals, hailing from Kandahar.

For security experts, Pakistan faces a complex terrorism challenge, involving regional militant groups as well as hostile foreign powers, whom Islamabad often blames for fomenting terrorism in the country.

“The TTP has gained strength in recent years,” says Abdullah Khan of PICSS. “Since August 2020, at least 30 small and big militant groups have united under its umbrella,” he said.

After the departure of the US-NATO forces from Afghanistan, the TTP can move on both sides of the border with ease because they remained the allies of the Afghan Taliban in fighting the foreign forces, he said.

For the impoverished and struggling Afghan Taliban rulers, meeting Pakistan’s demand of a crackdown on the TTP is a tough choice for multiple reasons.

Mansoor Ahmad Khan, Pakistan’s former ambassador to Kabul, said that when Islamabad raised the issue with the Afghan Taliban, they offered assistance in negotiations with the TTP, saying that they were “your own people”.

“They can’t take action against the TTP because during the days of fighting against the US-NATO backed Kabul government, these militants were their allies,” he said.

“The Afghan Taliban lack the means to establish writ in every part of Afghan territory and they also fear that any action against the TTP or for the matter the Uzbek militants would push them in the arms of the Daesh-K.”

“The Afghan Taliban now give us the standard response, which we gave to the US-NATO and their Kabul-backed regime that they are your people, talk to them. We also refrained from taking any action against the Afghan Taliban because it was difficult to distinguish between militants and millions of Afghan refugees living in Pakistan.”

Pashtuns on both sides of the border have strong cultural, family and tribal ties. It is difficult to distinguish between a Pashtun from Afghanistan and Pakistan.

However, Pakistani leadership, including the top military command, have raised serious concerns about the presence of anti-Pakistan terrorists on Afghan soil.

There have been calls of hot-pursuit of terrorists, but Mansoor Ahmad Khan, said that while it remains an option for any state trying to fight-off foreign terrorists, it would have its ramifications.

“Crossing the international border is not easy… tomorrow India can make a similar argument against Pakistan.”

The retired military official, while stressing the need to engage the Afghan Taliban, said that crackdown should not be seen as the only option. “Military action should be taken against terrorists but at the same time, room should always be open for negotiations.”

For former ambassador Khan, there appears little common ground between Islamabad and Kabul these days.

“The TTP is coming up with maximalist demands, including the imposition of shariat in areas, which used to be under its influence, restoration of the special status to the tribal areas, which have been merged with the KP and the right to keep weapons. Of course, no state can allow that but still talks can always be held.”

The TTP had been active in Pakistan tribal regions, including North and South Waziristan, which border Afghanistan.

The former PTI government had engaged the TTP and freed many of its militants in a bid to end the conflict and allow militants and their families to resettle in tribal areas – a policy now being criticised by the Shehbaz Sharif-led government.

The former ambassador said that the Afghan Taliban are concerned about the restrictions on the cross-border movement as they depend a lot on Pakistan especially for trade. “They complain that when US-backed Ashraf Ghani ruled Kabul, Pakistan issued on average 3,000 visas a day, but now 100 to 200 visas are issued.”

The vacuum created by Pakistan is now being filled by the other countries, including Qatar, the UAE, Iran and China, he added. “The reality is that there are no easy solutions for Pakistan to get out of the vortex of terrorism.”