What’s next for Syria’s war criminals who oversaw torture, mass killings?

The fall of Bashar al Assad’s brutal regime in Syria has shifted the focus to his close circle, who oversaw decades of brutal crackdown on dissidents and opponents that led to countless cases of political imprisonment, torture, extrajudicial killings and rape.

Following armed anti-regime groups' takeover on December 8 in a lightning military operation, interim Prime Minister Muhammad al Bashir announced that war criminals would be prosecuted “under current Syrian laws”.

The spokesperson of the interim government has also said that establishing a fair justice system is a top priority for the new administration led by Ahmed al Sharaa.

“By holding criminals accountable, we aim to heal the deep wounds inflicted upon our society and pave the way for a more just and equitable future,” Obaid Arnaut said in a recent interview.

Experts agree that justice and accountability will be critical for Syria’s future as the country seeks to heal from over half a century of authoritarian rule by the Assad family.

But how will the new government bring the Assad loyalists to justice and how does the process unfolds?

Preserve proof for justice

The first step toward justice, according to experts, is preserving evidence of the Assad regime’s brutal atrocities, including the mass graves and torture devices in prisons.

Silvia Carenzi, an associate research fellow at ISPI’s Middle East and North Africa Center, tells TRT World that civil society organisations, particularly those led by victims and survivors, have been vital in documenting these violations.

“The preservation of evidence and witnesses will be essential for efforts towards accountability,” Carenzi says.

Nerma Jelacic from the Commission for International Justice and Accountability (CIJA) also highlighted the importance of safeguarding critical evidence.

“I can imagine that the priority is to stabilise and secure the country while plans for wider dialogue are put in place,” Jelacic says.

“(But) what is also crucial is to ensure that the evidence that has suddenly become available across the country is preserved and secured to support those future processes.”

On December 20, the UN Human Rights Council confirmed that its inquiry team made its first trip to Syria since an investigation into the Assad regime’s war crimes was launched in 2011.

During the visit, critical information was uncovered regarding the former regime detention facilities and mass grave sites.

The team examined locations such as the Sednaya Prison and the Military Intelligence Branch 235, also known as the Palestine Branch, where they discovered significant destruction of vital evidence, including documents that could have helped identify perpetrators and provide families with information about missing loved ones.

Justice at home, accountability worldwide

To conduct war crimes trials, Carenzi emphasised that Syria would need a legal system capable of handling them domestically.

“So far, the new authorities have striven to maintain discipline and avoid or curb episodes of extrajudicial punishment and revenge — by issuing repeated statements urging fighters to refrain from those acts.”

At the international level, Carenzi argues that “accountability could happen in different ways” and outlines several international mechanisms that could be pursued.

Countries like Germany have prosecuted Syrian officials under the principle of Universal Jurisdiction, which allows grave crimes to be tried anywhere, regardless of where they occurred.

Germany has reaffirmed its commitment to holding Assad’s officials accountable.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock recently declared, "If any of Assad’s torturers are thinking about fleeing to Germany, we will hold them to account with the full force of the law."

Meanwhile, in the US, an indictment unsealed in Illinois charged two former Syrian intelligence officers with war crimes.

While Syria is not a member, the International Criminal Court’s 2018 ruling on Myanmar may offer a precedent. In that case, the ICC asserted jurisdiction over crimes against humanity committed by Myanmar’s authorities, despite Myanmar not being a member, because the crimes had a spillover effect in Bangladesh, an ICC member.

Moreover, if, at some point in the future, the new government were to access the ICC, “the latter would automatically have jurisdiction over crimes committed in Syria,” according to Carenzi.

A special hybrid court, a model similar to the UN Special Court for Sierra Leone, could be established, blending international and regional expertise. This would require significant diplomatic and logistical coordination.

Fate of Assad loyalists

Bashar al Assad, who reportedly fled to Russia with his family after the armed anti-regime groups took control of Damascus, remains one of the top wanted figures for war crimes in Syria.

Inheriting power from his father, Hafez al Assad, Bashar abused his authority through chemical attacks, mass killings, and widespread torture against the Syrian people.

Russia has granted him asylum, with Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's ambassador to international organisations in Vienna, confirming the country's alliance with Assad.

Yet, recent events reveal that this alliance may not be as rock-solid as in the past, according to Carenzi.

“After the Repelling the Aggression operation, Russia did not seem to be keen on offering unconditional support to Assad.”

She further explained that statements from HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) aimed at easing Moscow’s concerns could indicate a shift in Russia's stance to a “less hostile” level.

Moscow may even consider removing HTS from its list of proscribed organisations, Carenzi says, which could create new dynamics for Assad’s future.

Despite these shifts, Carenzi argues that the prospect of Russia extraditing Assad or other regime officials to the new Syrian government is unlikely, as Moscow may still see Assad as a "bargaining card" in its broader geopolitical strategy.

Assad’s younger brother, Maher al Assad, a key military figure, also fled Syria and joined him in Russia, further consolidating the family’s refuge.

In addition to his military role, Maher al Assad has also been identified as the mastermind of the drug trade between Lebanon and Syria.

The Assad family's power structure is crumbling as two of its key financial backers, Ehab and Eyad Makhlouf, were killed and injured, respectively, in their escape attempt.

Meanwhile, Abdul Salam Mahmoud, a senior intelligence officer notorious for overseeing torture centres, faces international charges of war crimes.

As for the future of Assad loyalists, Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al Sharaa, has emphasised that those involved in war crimes, including high-ranking officials, will not escape justice.

"We will not hesitate to hold accountable the criminals, murderers, security and army officers involved in torturing the Syrian people."