Why European leaders are worried about another Trump presidency

When Donald Trump ascended to the US presidency in 2017 he said a lot to annoy Washington’s European allies. The former US president pushed them to contribute more to the budget of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and occasionally lectured them on how to be good allies.

If opinion polls and political commentary coming out of the US are to be believed then Trump could win the elections being held later in the year.

Such a scenario has unnerved leaders in the European Union states, which are already dealing with an energy crisis and growing Russian assertiveness near their borders, experts say.

An angrier Trump who this time around is hounded by legal challenges related to his illicit relationships with women can spell more challenges.

Unlike in his previous term when he showed some deference to political institutions, an “unbound” Trump in a second term will push hard for European countries to contribute more resources to NATO.

Trump has promised that if he were to return to power he “would have to settle” the Ukraine war “in 24 hours”, an indication that Europe would have to find a way to get along with Moscow.

It also appears to be a message to Kiev to reconsider its options against Moscow given the possibility that Trump might not give “a penny” to Ukraine for its war with Russia.

“If Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you and to support you,” Trump allegedly told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2020, according to Thierry Breton, EU’s internal market chief.

Trump accuses Europeans of relying on the US military for their protection and, if he stays true to his threat of cutting security cover then the 27-nation bloc, which does not have a unified force, might find itselves defenceless against Russia.

‘Home alone’

In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, which at times has raised threat of nuclear confrontation, a Europe without US military might and its nuclear umbrella, might feel very much “home alone”, according to Josckha Fischer, a former German foreign minister, who led the country’s Green Party for nearly two decades.

The leftist politician now believes that in the face of the rising possibility of a Trump presidency and increasing Russian intimidation against Eastern Europe, the EU “no longer has any choice but to become a military and political power in its own right.”

But Fischer’s proposal is nothing new. France’s centrist President Emmanuel Macron has long mooted the idea for the creation of a European army, which will ensure the continent’s “military sovereignty” and “strategic autonomy”.

In May, Macron upped the ante to address increasing concerns on European collective security after Trump won the Republican Party’s presidential nomination.

“Will [the American] administration always be the same? Nobody can tell, and we cannot delegate our collective security and our stability to the choices of American voters,” said Macron during the GLOBSEC Forum.

Macron’s push for Europe-only military alliance is something his peers can’t dismiss amid growing concern that the US under Trump leadership will not contribute the needed military and financial muscle to NATO.

In order to prevent this possibility from becoming a reality, the US Congress moved to legislate a law, which will require its approval for any American withdrawal from NATO. This move itself also speaks volumes on how concerned Western capitals are about something like this happening, according to experts.

While Macron and others continue to talk on collective security measures, it will be difficult to fill gaps for Europe in the absence of the US military might.

For example, compared to Russia’s nearly 6,000 nuclear warheads, Britain and France together only have around 500 nuclear warheads. The US has more than 5,000 warheads.

“If Trump will be elected, we must do our best to avoid the most tragic consequences of what Trump is saying,” said Rasa Juknevičienė, a former Lithuanian defence minister, adding that the bloc is not ready for a possible reversal of US policies on Europe because “It’s a too short period of time.”

Trade concerns

But defence is not the only concern for Europe, which will also have to deal with a different US economic approach under Trump’s second term

Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank president, sees another Trump presidency as “clearly a threat.”

“It is enough to look at trade tariffs, the commitment to Nato, the fight against climate change. In these three areas alone, in the past, US interests were not aligned with those of Europe,” she said in mid-January.

Last year, Trump, a proponent of “America First '' agenda, threatened the EU with import tariffs.

Under the Trump presidency, an acceleration in the US-China trade war can cause more anxiety in European countries, which want to keep economies and financial ties with Beijing intact.

In the last ten years, bilateral trade and investment between China and the EU have nearly doubled.