Why Israel won't reciprocate positively to Hamas's truce overtures

The negotiations between Hamas and Israel for an immediate halt in the seven-month-long war in Gaza remain inconclusive as of May 7.

Even though Hamas has announced that it has accepted a ceasefire proposal drafted by the Egyptian-Qatari mediators, Israel appears bent upon a full-fledged assault on Rafah, the southernmost part of Gaza that hosts more than 1.5 million displaced Palestinians seeking refuge from Tel Aviv’s indiscriminate bombing since October.

“I believe the talks for a truce have collapsed for now,” Murat Koc, founder of the Regional Security Studies Research and Implementation Center of Cag University, told TRT World.

The Israeli army took operational control of the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing on Tuesday, signalling the unwillingness to hold its end of the ceasefire deal accepted unilaterally by Hamas.

A day ago, the Israeli army issued immediate evacuation orders for Palestinians in the eastern neighbourhoods of Rafah, asking them to flee the town of al Mawasi in southern Gaza.

“Israel bears the sole responsibility for the collapse of the talks,” Koc said.

In recent days, Egyptian and Hamas officials have said the ceasefire would take place in multiple stages during which Hamas would release hostages in exchange for Israeli troops’ pullback from Gaza.

There was a glimmer of hope over the weekend as Hamas negotiators engaged with mediators from Qatar, Egypt and the United States in the Egyptian capital of Cairo for a truce.

The main point of friction in the negotiation on the part of Israelis has been their insistence on a ground invasion of Rafah.

Under the proposal, Israel was supposed to halt its war on Gaza for 40 days in the first phase while Hamas would exchange captives for Palestinian prisoners.

The first stage of the proposed truce included an Israeli troop withdrawal to the eastern areas of Gaza, except for the Wadi Gaza area that separates the territory’s north from its south, Anadolu Agency reported while quoting an unnamed source.

According to US news outlet Axios, CIA Director Bill Burns, who visited Cairo and Doha over the weekend for the talks, wanted Israel to send its negotiators to Egypt. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided against it, insisting that Hamas should first give its response to the latest hostage deal proposal.

Media reports quoted an unnamed Israeli official as saying that Hamas agreed to a “softened” version of the Egyptian proposal that included “far-reaching” conclusions that were unacceptable to Israel.

“This would appear to be a ruse intended to make Israel look like the side refusing a deal,” one report quoted the Israeli official as saying.

Speaking to TRT World, Dr Ahmet Keser of Hasan Kalyoncu University said a proper ceasefire seems “very unlikely” at this point in time, even though a short-lived pause in hostilities cannot be ruled out.

“Even if implemented for the time being, a ceasefire will mean little more than a break for Israelis. Such a pause in fighting will only be a direct outcome of the international pressure on Israel,” he said.

Netanyahu has repeatedly said Israel will invade Rafah regardless of any deal with Hamas.

“I don’t think the real intent of Israel is to achieve a ceasefire. All that Israel is looking for at the moment is the return of hostages,” Keser said.

Analysts see Netanyahu’s statements as an attempt to provoke Hamas and sabotage the talks. That’s because any step towards the resolution of the conflict will put his political survival at risk.

Ultranationalist members of the Israeli cabinet, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, have indicated they’ll pull back their support for Netanyahu if he goes ahead with the peace deal.

Both ministers advocate for the resettlement of Palestinians outside of Gaza.

Their exit will break the coalition government and lead to early elections which, polls show, Netanyahu is expected to lose.