Why Nigeria’s presidential elections matter to Africa and beyond

Nigeria, Africa’s largest democracy, is heading to the polls on February 25 to elect a new president as well as a new parliament. The country will vote again in March to elect a new set of state governors. 

Experts say these elections are crucial not only for Nigeria but for the entire African continent and beyond. 

According to Zuhumnan Dapel, an economic research fellow at the Canada-based International Development Research Centre, whatever happens in Nigeria has “ripple effects across Africa” because of the country’s strategic importance in the continent. 

Dapel tells TRT Afrika that Nigeria is a superpower in Africa because “it is the biggest democracy, the largest oil producer and also it has the largest economy on the continent”. 

It is also the most populous country in Africa, with a population of more than 200 million.

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‘Big election for Africa’

Nigeria is the first country in Africa to hold national elections in 2023. Elections are due in several other countries this year. 

According to Nigeria’s electoral commission, INEC, more than 93 million Nigerians have registered to cast their votes – to choose a successor to President Muhammadu Buhari, whose second and final term in office is due to end in May. 

Buhari, who came to power in 2015, has promised to leave a legacy of “free and fair elections”.

Nigeria is now in its nearly 24th straight year of uninterrupted civilian rule, the longest-ever period of democratic rule in the west African country since its independence in 1960. 

This year, 18 candidates are contesting the presidency, including Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling APC party, Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition PDP, Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP.

According to Dapel, a successful election and a subsequent transition to a new government in Nigeria will mean “solidifying and strengthening democracy in the country”. 

“It’s really, really a big election for Africa,” he says, because of Nigeria’s political and economic influence in the continent.  

The economic and development expert says the citizens of other African countries must be interested in the elections because “what happens in Nigeria affects a lot of things in their countries” and that “the stability of democracy and the economy of Nigeria fits into the stability of democracy and the economy of the African continent”.

“Nigeria always sets the pace in Africa. When democracy is consolidated in Nigeria, other African countries have a reason to consolidate their own democracies as well.”

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Economic influence

According to the researcher, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) economically influences the direction of Africa’s overall GDP. It is a continent of 54 countries, but “Nigeria’s GDP is between 20-30 per cent of the GDP of Africa as a whole”.  

Although the country’s major export to the world is crude oil, “over 80 percent of Nigeria’s manufactured exports go to African countries”, Dapel says. The exports include shoes and clothing items besides agricultural products.

Nigeria is often referred to as the ‘giant of Africa’ because of its large human and material resources as well as its leadership role in African affairs. 

According to Kabiru Sa’id Sufi, a Political Science lecturer at the College of Education and Preliminary Studies in Kano, “everyone wanting to see a more united and more prosperous Africa should be interested in what happens in Nigeria.” 

He says this is largely because of Nigeria’s leadership role in Africa, particularly in regional bodies like the Economic Community of West African States and the African Union – committing its resources to maintain peace, security and stability across the continent. 

Sufi adds that the “success of democracy in Nigeria is important” to enable it to continue playing that leadership role. Because of Nigeria’s prominence in Africa, world powers and other major economies are also keenly following the political developments in the oil-rich west African country, he says. 

Analysts also believe that having more economic and political stability at home will help address the issue of frequent migration of Nigerians for so-called “greener pastures” abroad.

Another reason why the Nigerian elections matter is the issue of insecurity. According to security analyst Dr Kabiru Adamu, despite its numerous internal security problems, Nigeria is playing a pivotal role in the international fight against militant groups linked to Daesh and Al Qaeda terror organisations. 

Adamu, who heads the security risk management firm Beacon Consulting Limited, tells TRT Afrika that Nigeria’s elections are important not only to Africa but to the world because of the country’s role in counter-terrorism efforts. 

For example, he says, the country is “funding and driving the operations” of a multi-national military force in the Lake Chad area fighting “terrorist groups”. 

He adds that free and fair elections will help to produce a leader who will “galvanise the inherent strength that lies in Nigeria” to enable it to continue playing its “strategic role in Africa”. Adamu also notes Nigeria’s previous efforts in peacekeeping operations in various African countries.  

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All eyes on Nigeria

“Not only Africa but the entire world should pay attention to the Nigerian elections” because of the country’s “important role in the comity of nations”, feels Dr Adamu.

People across Africa and beyond have been following the lead-up to the elections, mainly on social media. “I follow the elections campaign in Nigeria keenly,” Ghanaian businessman Elikem Kotoko tells TRT Afrika on the phone from his country’s capital Accra. 

“The elections are important to all of us in Africa,” he says, describing Nigeria as a “powerhouse”. 

Kototo, who sells water dispensers, says some of his clients are from Nigeria and that he sometimes exports his goods to the country. According to him, the successful conduct of the elections will help “advance the democracy that we wish for in Africa” as well as “economic growth”. 

Zuhumnan Dapel is hopeful that Nigeria will continue to lead the way, describing the leading presidential candidates as “open-minded” politicians who “will be able to maintain strong relationships with other African countries and beyond”.

This is a view also shared by Kabiru Sa’id Sufi. “Whoever wins will determine how Nigeria relates with the outside world. So the whole world is keen and watching.”

If Nigeria gets these elections right, it will be “a sign to Africa and the rest of the world that democracy has come to stay in Africa,” he adds.