Will Israel reach a deal with Hamas?

After nine months of intense fighting in Gaza, nearly 40,000 Palestinians, mostly children and women have been killed. It’s only now that a US ceasefire plan to end military hostilities has gained some traction as the international community’s pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has further built up.

While initially Tel Aviv approved the US proposal to stop the war, speaking to a right-wing news channel on Sunday, Netanyahu gave mixed messages. He first suggested an end to the ‘intense phase of war with Hamas’, but then also insisted the Israeli army will continue to fight in Gaza to eradicate the Palestinian resistance group’s existence. To add to his inconsistency, he proposed making a “partial deal” with Hamas.

Soon after the interview’s air, Netanyahu appeared to walk back from his assertions saying that he is still "committed to the Israeli proposal outlined by President Biden", whose plan recommends a permanent ceasefire and a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza in exchange for ensuring the release of all remaining hostages held by Hamas.

Hamas, which shows no signs of bowing down to Tel Aviv in a military sense, took US President Joe Biden’s plan positively “particularly his call for a permanent ceasefire, withdrawal of occupation forces from Gaza, reconstruction, and prisoner exchange.”

But experts are less optimistic that an Israel-Hamas truce will bring an end to the Gaza war.

Speaking to TRT World, Sami al Arian, the director of the Center for Islam and Global Affairs at Istanbul Sabahattin Zaim University said: “Netanyahu is not interested at all in making a deal with Hamas. Of course he is interested in making a partial deal knowing full well that Hamas and resistance movements will never go for it.”

‘Netanyahu is not serious’

According to Arian, a prominent Palestinian analyst, Netanyahu is only interested in releasing some Israeli hostages “to please certain people” through a partial deal. “He knows full well that the moment this war is shut down his government will be in jeopardy because either his partners will withdraw from the coalition or there will be an inquiry in which they will fault him for what happened on October 7.”

Hamas has declared its clear position in not making a partial deal with Israel several times. "Netanyahu's true stance is to avoid reaching an agreement to continue the war of ‘genocide’ on Gaza,” Izzat al-Rishq, a senior member of Hamas political bureau said in a statement.

Netanyahu’s political interest lies in “prolonging” the Gaza war as much as possible, “hoping that Donald Trump will be elected and there would be a different dynamic by that time,” Arian tells TRT World.

Behind closed doors, Trump promised to support Israel’s fight against Hamas and its allies, threatening to crush pro-Palestine protests in the US and deport anti-Israel demonstrators.

“Unless the Biden administration puts an immense pressure on Netanyahu or he faces serious opposition inside Israel, he will not be willing to end the Gaza war”, he adds.

Idris Okuducu, a Beirut-based political analyst, has a similar take on Netanyahu’s seriousness to make a deal with Hamas. “He has never approached any mediation efforts coming from either the US or Qatar in a serious manner. He does not approach the current ceasefire sincerely either, despite the Biden administration’s pressure,” Okuducu tells TRT World.

Despite Netanyahu’s unwillingness to reach a deal with Hamas, Tel Aviv and pro-Israeli voices in the US try to portray the Palestinian group’s positioning as an obstacle to a possible agreement, says Okuducu.

Beyond Hamas and Palestinians, in the wake of escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, some leading Lebanese figures including Walid Jumblatt, a Druze leader, who was once the head of the Progressive Socialist Party, also expressed doubts on Netanyahu’s sincerity to reach a ceasefire deal, says Okuducu.

During a recent visit to Jordan, where Jumblatt met King Abdullah, the Lebanese leader was critical of Washington’s stance toward the Gaza war. “During nine months of war in Gaza, we have not seen any serious American effort, except attempts to mitigate the conflict, which have achieved nothing,” said Jumblatt.

Shifting on Hezbollah

Netanyahu also hit a nerve during his partial deal remarks, suggesting to focus the war instead on the Lebanese front and targetting the Hezbollah threat.

“This is a thorny issue for not only Israel and Lebanon but also regional actors such as Iran, a Shia-majority country, which backs Hezbollah, and Saudi Arabia, a Sunni-majority state,” says Okuducu. “There are other actors too, which have concerns on both the Gaza war and the expansion of Tehran-backed Shia militias across the Middle East.”

While Benjamin Netanyahu tried to justify his government’s cruel conduct against Palestinians for a more safe Israel, tig-tag fighting with Hezbollah has made many areas in northern Israel unsafe, leading to mass evacuations and making many citizens question the meaning of what is safe.

“Since 1948, when Israel was established, the first time ever Hezbollah attacks have forced Israeli settlers to leave their areas. More than 100,000 Israelis left their homes. All this shows that now Israel’s south is safer than its north,” says Okuducu.

Emerging signs from Tel Aviv show that the Israeli army might start an anti-Hezbollah operation to ensure Israelis return to their areas in the north prior to September, says the analyst. “It is not realistic to think that Israel, which has not yet achieved success in the war in Gaza, will achieve success against Hezbollah,” he says.

While “a lot of people say” that Israel will go to war with Hezbollah, Netanyahu will not do it for a simple reason that it will lead to massive casualties and destruction on the Israeli side, says Arian.

“They take foolish actions sometimes that should not be discounted, but I doubt very much that he will go for it because he knows that many industrial areas and a lot of military targets will be destroyed along with almost every major Lebanese city,” he adds.

Israel’s multi-front challenges

In the Gaza war, both Hezbollah and Israel have starkly different approaches.

While Hezbollah thinks that an exchange of fire with Tel Aviv across the border can end if the Gaza war ceases, the Netanyahu government believes that the Lebanese Shia group will continue to stay as an existential threat no matter how their war with Hamas concludes, says Okuducu. This dilemma creates a multi-front challenge for Israel.

Israel strongly believes that Hezbollah could attack Jewish settlers in northern Israel, using any pretext even if the Gaza war ends at some point, according to Okuducu. As a result, the analyst fears that the Gaza conflict might further escalate into regional dimensions.

But Okuducu warns that a possible ground conflict with Hezbollah carries much more political and military risks for the Netanyahu government than the Gaza war, because it will force the Israeli military to face multifront challenges from Hamas, Lebanese groups and their allies like Yemen’s Houthis, who have been launching attacks on Tel Aviv-linked vessels in the Red Sea.

“If the Netanyahu government reaches a ceasefire deal and Hezbollah ends its attacks on northern Israel simultaneously, that would give an edge to the Lebanese group, which is something Tel Aviv would never accept,” he says.

“Unlike the Gaza war, much of the Israeli public backs a possible war with Hezbollah”, the analyst adds.

But on the other hand, Washington believes that increasing the regional clout of Iran-backed groups is a threat to not only Tel Aviv but also for US interests..

This American thinking, adds Okuducu, might lead Tel Aviv to assess that Washington may not oppose a fight with Hezbollah, a view confirmed by some American officials, who say the US will defend Israel against Hezbollah in the case of a full-blown war.