Will Israel's pager attack lead to a global security reassessment?

The recent Israeli attack on Hezbollah's pagers in Lebanon have sent shockwaves across many countries, raising concerns about the security of their technology supply chains and the future of covert warfare.

Experts speculate the incident may prompt broader reevaluations of supply chain security, particularly for nations wary of Western intelligence tactics.

“The way the [Lebanon] operation was conducted, is likely to raise concerns in other countries about supply chains for critical electronic devices, and a reassessment of the potential risks of reliance on unknown suppliers that could come with increased risks, both of surveillance and in this rare case, actual physical damage to users,” Paul Triolo, an expert in global technology policy and a partner at the Albert Stonebridge Group, tells TRT World.

The explosion of hundreds of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah in Lebanon has added a chilling new dimension to modern covert warfare.

The devices were manufactured in Taiwan, modified in Bulgaria, and rigged with explosives. Security experts say Israeli intelligence, Mossad, remotely detonated them, killing at least 25 people and injuring nearly 3,000 across Lebanon.

A Hezbollah official described the incident to Reuters as the "biggest security breach" since the war began on October 7, marking a major turning point in the conflict.

Tech expert Triolo believes the operation was likely designed "to weaken and demoralise Hezbollah as a prelude to a larger Israeli military action against the group."

The use of such seemingly low-tech communication tools highlights vulnerabilities in global supply chains, causing concerns in the international arena.

‘Global security reassessments’

The breach has compelled states to reconsider how they source and secure electronics.

Tony Loughran, a global risk specialist and director/founder of Zero Risk International, expects that many states will be “turning their attention to ‘if and what code’ was used in the pager attack and consider how imported technology could carry risks of cyber intervention or sabotage​”.

The growing concern reflects a broader worry among nations wary of foreign influence.

“This is why major states such as Russia have requested a swift investigation to establish who was behind the attack and how it was performed. All states have declared it a necessity to find out the level of cyber intervention involved. We know it existed through the messages sent on the pagers, but what else was at play,” Loughran says.

Iraq's quick response may be a signal of more comprehensive global reactions. Mohammed Shia al Sudani, Iraq’s Prime Minister, stresses the importance of securing technology imports during a recent security meeting, stating, "We must ensure that our electronic imports are thoroughly vetted before they enter the country"​.

Even a NATO member Türkiye has begun reviewing its own measures to safeguard electronic devices used by its military.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that establishing a dedicated agency for cyber-security is a top priority, following President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's call for stronger protection. Fidan notes that plans for the agency would materialise "very soon"​.

As nations begin to examine their own electronics supply chains, the fallout from the attack could extend far beyond the Middle East.

"Countries such as China and Russia are likely at a minimum to reassess supply chains for communications devices used by their most sensitive organisations, including the security services and the military,” Triolo says, noting that heightened scrutiny of technological imports will be driven by fears of foreign tampering or sabotage.

‘The evolution of cyber warfare’

Security expert Loughran predicts a significant evolution in cyber warfare tactics, emphasising the role of drones and precision-guided weapons such as Russia's Iskander-M Missile.

"I have no doubt we will see cyberwarfare evolving and we need to look at the use of drones and target imagery such as the Iskander-M Missile of Russia," he tells TRT World.

The integration of cyber capabilities into traditional warfare is not a new concept, but the shift in warfare as seen from the recent attack demonstrates how deeply technological manipulation is affecting modern military strategy​.

Israel’s attack on pagers, walkie-talkies, wireless radios exemplifies how unconventional methods, including cyber manipulation of supply chains, can blur the lines between traditional and cyber warfare.

According to Bruce Schneier, a cybersecurity expert at Harvard, the attack on pagers represents not just a tactical victory but a psychological one: “They don't trust their smartphones, so they reach back to these more archaic devices, and those blow up. What's next?” he states in an interview with Wired.

Further illustrating this transforming dynamics, Loughran highlights a key vulnerability within global supply chains.

“The one major common denominator in all contaminated supply chains is ‘money’. No matter where you go and what you do, someone will always be looking for ‘bakshish or bribe” suggesting that the motivation for compromising supply chains is often financial, making political instability and prolonged conflict fertile ground for exploitation​.

As Middle East Eye reports, Israel’s history of using booby traps in civilian areas in Lebanon demonstrates that the manipulation of supply chains and unconventional warfare methods have long been part of Israel's military strategy​.

The recent attack on Hezbollah, therefore, fits within this broader context of military operations that obscures the line between traditional and cyber warfare.

According to Paul Triolo, “the attack has prompted nations to reassess their communication supply chains, fearing that their reliance on foreign suppliers may expose them to similar vulnerabilities.”

‘Public effect and paranoia’

Hezbollah and other groups adjust their strategies, public paranoia around everyday devices grows.

In Lebanon, the fear of compromised electronics is spreading far beyond Hezbollah’s ranks​. Nadim Kobeissi, a Lebanese security researcher, shared his insights for Wired into the deep-rooted fear now gripping civilians.

He mentioned that when he speaks to his family members who are still in Lebanon, they tell him that their iPhones have been heating up, and ask whether they're right to be worried.

Tony Loughran echoed this sentiment, adding, "There is a very real fear from the public about just what is safe,”

"Even though there is a constant reminder that all indicators are pointing to a ‘supply chain attack,’ the conversation has shifted to speculation about which device could be next. A microwave, a restaurant buzzer, headphones—who knows?"

This escalating technological cat-and-mouse game has blurred the lines between civilian devices and weapons of war, leaving everyone to ask a unsettling question: Is anyone really safe if something as ordinary as a battery can be weaponized?