Will the Hamas-Israel ceasefire prolong?

The Israel-Hamas war received a much-needed break on Friday after a Qatar-mediated ceasefire ensured the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners over the weekend.

US President Joe Biden, who has put his administration’s weight behind Israeli attack on Gaza, has demanded a “pause” in hostilities in which the Israeli military has killed more than 14,500 Palestinians.

"I think the chances are real," said Biden, referring to the extension of the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. "That's my goal. That's our goal to keep this pause going beyond tomorrow," he said on Monday.

Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan expressed “a possibility” of an extended ceasefire which Americans “would like to see that happen” he said.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also hinted the four-day truce can be extended, provided Hamas releases ten hostages every day.

Hamas is also in favour of truce extension if Tel Aviv continues to release Palestinian prisoners most of whom are women, teenagers and children from Israeli prisons “as stipulated in the humanitarian ceasefire agreement.”

Sami Hamdi, a political analyst and head of the International Interest, a political risk analysis group, says that Biden and Netanyahu are under pressure from families of Israeli hostages and widespread demonstrations against Israeli attacks on Gaza.

“A renewed military operation will only exacerbate public opinion further.”

Both leaders are not sure “how to navigate” the Israeli attack further against Hamas, which continues to control large parts of Gaza despite a brutal 47-day Israeli bombardment, says Hamdi.

“It is this uncertainty over how to handle domestic pressure that suggests that both may well be amenable to an extension of the ceasefire,” he tells TRT World.

However, it remains unclear how long the ceasefire will continue even if all the sides in the conflict agree to it.

Alon Liel, the former director of the Israeli foreign ministry, also sees the possibility of the ceasefire “being extended day by day beyond the three days we already had.” But it’s unlikely the ceasefire will last more than a week, he says.

“Fighting will resume immediately after this period,” Liel tells TRT World, as Hamas remains in control, which is unacceptable to Israel. “The Israeli goal is removing Hamas from power in Gaza.”

Even if Israel and Hamas continue to maintain the exchange of hostages and Palestinian prisoners for another week, over 100 hostages will still remain in Gaza, he says, adding that the war might resume even before all hostages are released.

“This is what the Israeli people want. We will never have peace with Hamas around,” he says. “This is my feeling.”

Netanyahu also gave a definite sign of renewing Israeli attacks. “We will continue until the end, until victory. Nothing will stop us,” he said while addressing Israeli soldiers located allegedly in Gaza, according to an Israeli government statement released on Sunday.

But Qatar, the main mediating force between the two sides, expressed optimism that “the momentum” of hope emerging from the releases of both Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners and the durability of the four-day truce can “allow” the Gulf state to negotiate the extension of the ceasefire.

As a result, Qatar can “get into more serious discussions about the rest of the hostages," said Majed al Ansari, the Gulf country’s foreign ministry spokesperson, on Saturday.

Can an international force help

As long as both sides continue to get up one another’s nose, a truce will not bring a lasting halt to military confrontations with prominent voices demanding an international solution.

The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has called for the deployment of an international force in Gaza to monitor ceasefires, ensuring a longer period of peace between the two sides.

"I do not think that a UN protectorate in Gaza is a solution. I think we need a multi-stakeholder approach in which different countries, different entities, will cooperate,” said UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, urging an international force being deployed to the Palestinian enclave to end hostilities.

He also added that the Palestinian Authority cannot control Gaza under the protection of Israeli tanks, so “the international community needs to look into a transition period.”

But Netanyahu suggested that the Israeli army aims to control Gaza after the war if it can. Tel Aviv will not “give it to international forces,” he said.