Will the US, UK air strikes make Yemen's Houthis more aggressive?

Yemen's Houthis have threatened an all-out war after the United States and UK carried out air strikes, saying all American and British interests have become "legitimate targets" after the "direct and declared aggression."

Overnight on Thursday, the US and UK struck Yemen's capital, Sanaa, Hudaida, Sa'ada, and Dhamar governorates, in response to the Yemeni group's continuing attacks on cargo vessels in the Red Sea.

"The strikes are symbolic in their effect and mostly are in response to shipping and insurance companies' pressure on US and UK interests," says Farea Al-Muslimi, Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House.

"The targeted areas and military sites are really only peanuts in the wider context of Houthi weapon and military capabilities - especially their maritime weapons."

The strikes are expected to escalate the crisis, as the Iran-allied Houthis have warned on numerous occasions in the past couple of days.

Abdul Malik al Houthi, the leader of Yemen's Houthi group, said the US and its allies will "pay the price" for attacking Yemen.

The Houthis have taken a strong stance against Israel's relentless bombing of Gaza, in which more than 23,700 Palestinians, most of them women and children, have been killed since October 7th. Tel Aviv says Hamas killed some 1,200 Israelis.

The shipping lines that have been targeted in the Red Sea were linked to Israel, the Houthis said. But the attacks have badly affected marine trade in the region as many cargo vessels are taking a longer detour around the Horn of Africa to carry goods from Asia to Europe.

Filiz Katman, Director of the Energy Politics and Markets Research Center at Istanbul Aydin University, says it's unlikely the conflict can drag on for long since many countries, including the US, are heading for elections and the risk it poses to the global economy.

Houthis' main goal is to increase the cost of war for Israel, she says.

Hardened fighters

Houthis fought a years-long war with the well-equipped and financed Saudi Arabia-led military coalition. Despite suffering losses, the Houthis, who allegedly receive weapons and funds from Iran, managed to take control of vast swaths of Yemen, including the capital, Sanaa.

Al-Muslimi says he doesn't think the American and British strikes will prevent the Houthis from carrying out further attacks in the Red Sea, and instead, it could force the group to retaliate even harder.

The Houthis will likely expand their attacks on the US and UK ships and military bases across the Arabian Peninsula, he says.

"They are also most likely to attack western oil and industrial infrastructures within their rocket's reach."

Yemen is facing a severe humanitarian crisis after enduring years of war. The latest escalation hamper the United Nations' effort to resume the peace process, says Al-Muslimi.

Saudi Arabia has tried its best to stay out of the conflict but played the first line of defence for Israel against the Houthi attacks in recent months as it shot down some of the Houthi rockets, he says.

Even though Houthis don't enjoy support across the country, which remains divided between warring groups, there's a very strong public sentiment against outside interference, especially if it has anything to do with Israel.

"Major Yemeni parties, and even Houthis foes, could not and will not endorse these strikes - at least not publicly," Al-Muslimi says.

Regional consequences

The impact of the latest escalation has been felt outside the Middle East.

While British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has defended the UK's actions alongside the US to uphold the "freedom of navigation and the free flow of trade," he has faced stark criticism and a political backlash for not seeking parliamentary approval before authorising the strikes.

Among prominent voices was Scottish leader Humza Yousaf, who underscored the UK's historic role in military interventions across the Middle East.

Russia was quick to condemn the actions of the Western nations. In a press briefing, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova underscored Russia's concern, describing it as a confirmation that "the US position in the UN Security Council on the Red Sea is only a pretext for further escalation of tension in the region. We strongly condemn the actions of the US and its allies."

Istanbul Aydin University's Katman says that disruption of shipping traffic in the Red Sea also badly affects China, whose vessels take the route to ship goods to European countries.

The Houthis say the US and British forces launched around 73 strikes on Yemen that killed five of its fighters.

It is not clear how Iran will likely respond, but Tehran prefers to keep the Houthis as "useful scapegoat allies while trying to save the Joker Card it has: Hezbollah," says Al-Muslimi.

Since Israel launched its massive military attack on Gaza, the Iranians have avoided getting involved in the conflict directly despite its leaders regularly issuing threatening statements.

Whether or not other countries get sucked into the conflict, the Houthis have shown to be formidable foes.

"They are savvier, more prepared, and more equipped than anyone is really acknowledging," says Al-Muslimi.