Analysis: Chances of sustainable ceasefire in Lebanon very low

A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah appears unlikely, as both sides remain significantly apart in their positions, analysts say.

On Wednesday, the United States, France and other allies issued a joint statement calling for a 21-day halt in the fighting, with President Joe Biden, his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, and other leaders meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

"A ceasefire in Lebanon, from a Hezbollah perspective, is dependent on a ceasefire in Gaza. So I mean, a ceasefire on Lebanon from Hezbollah's perspective remains impossible or unacceptable," Sami Nader, a Middle Eastern affairs analyst, told TRT World.

"So what is now being debated is the implementation of 1701."

United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, established to end the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, was prompted by Hezbollah's abduction of two Israeli soldiers.

The resolution aims to prevent future conflicts by keeping Hezbollah away from the Israel-Lebanon border and calls for a complete cessation of hostilities, the release of the abducted soldiers, and the deployment of 15,000 UN peacekeepers alongside the Lebanese army.

As of June 20, 2023, there are 9,516 United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) troops in southern Lebanon. The resolution also emphasises support for the Blue Line, the demarcation line between Lebanon and Israel established after Israel's withdrawal in May 2000, which is considered temporary and a “line of withdrawal".

Nader further said that the Lebanese government is seeking international guarantees to support a ceasefire agreement that lasts about three weeks. This temporary ceasefire is intended as a step towards fully implementing UNSC Resolution 1701, which outlines the framework for lasting peace and stability in the region.

Essentially, the government wants assurances that the ceasefire will lead to broader adherence to the terms set out in the resolution, he added.

On Thursday, the Israeli military announced that it had targeted "around 75 terror sites" in the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon, areas known as Hezbollah strongholds that have experienced a significant outflow of residents in recent days.

A strike near the ancient city of Baalbek resulted in at least nine fatalities, according to Lebanon's health ministry. Lebanon's official National News Agency referred to the overnight bombing in the area as "the most violent" in recent days.

On Wednesday, Israel's army chief instructed soldiers to ready themselves for a potential ground offensive against Hezbollah, as two reserve brigades were mobilised "for operational missions in the northern area."

For many on both sides of the border, the violence has revived painful memories of the 2006 war, which resulted in the deaths of 1,200 people in Lebanon—primarily civilians—and 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.

The UN reports that Israel's bombardment of Lebanon has displaced 90,000 people from traditional Hezbollah strongholds to safer regions within the small Mediterranean country.

"The critical element here is this coupling what's happening in Gaza to what's happening in the northern front," Nader told TRT World.

"And unless Hezbollah decides to delink or decouple this war of support with the war in Gaza, I'm not seeing any chance in the very near future for a sustainable ceasefire."