Could public outcry over captives push Netanyahu toward Gaza truce deal?

The deaths of six hostages in besieged Gaza has sparked massive protests and a general strike against hawkish Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who remains adamant on his Gaza policy since the start of his genocidal war on the tiny enclave nearly 11 months ago.

Many Israelis blame Netanyahu for the mounting number of dead hostages and are calling for a ceasefire agreement to free the remaining roughly 100 captives — even if that means ending the war.

Sunday's demonstrations were the largest show of support for a hostage deal since October 7.

But Netanyahu has faced fierce pressure to reach a ceasefire agreement before, from key governing partners to top security officials and even Israel's most important international ally, the US. Yet a deal to wind down the war in Gaza remains elusive.

Here's a look at how the public outcry in Israel could affect Netanyahu's next move.

Netanyahu's position

Throughout the war in Gaza, where Israel has killed more than 42,000 Palestinians, wounded nearly 100,000 — a conservative estimate — critics have claimed Netanyahu has put his political survival above all else, including the fate of the captives.

His rule relies on support from two far-right parties that were once at the fringes of Israeli politics but now hold key positions in the regime.

Headed by far-right and extremist ministers, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, they oppose any deal that ends the war or sets free Palestinian prisoners abducted by Israelis. They have vowed to topple the regime should Netanyahu agree to a ceasefire — a step that would trigger elections that could remove Netanyahu from office.

"What he cares about is his political survival," said Reuven Hazan, a political scientist at Jerusalem's Hebrew University. "His political survival with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich doesn't allow him to end the war and bring back the hostages."

Netanyahu instead blames Hamas for the lack of a deal. The Palestinians resistance group has, however, accepted the deal that Israeli ally US proposed in May and promoted it as Netanyahu's deal. Hamas says Biden's plan must be implemented now. It has refused to entertain new condition from Netanyahu that also includes Israel occupying the Philadelphi Corridor [or Saladin Axis] for any truce-prisoner swap deal.

The condition has prompted clashes with Netanyahu's own defence minister, who says a deal that frees the hostages should be a priority.

Looming over the prime minister is also his ongoing trial on corruption charges. If Netanyahu is voted out of power, he will lose his platform to rail against the judicial system, which he accuses of being biased. He also wouldn't be able to move ahead with his regime's planned changes to the legal system that critics say could affect the trial and help him avoid a conviction.

'Netanyahu is the one who sentenced (the hostages) to death'

As the Palestinian toll of the Israeli genocidal war has mounted — with tens of thousands killed and whole swaths of the territory decimated — Israel has become increasingly isolated internationally. On Monday, when asked if Netanyahu was doing enough to negotiate a deal, US President Joe Biden responded, "No."

Biden, who has never seen eye to eye with the Israeli leader even though their nations are close allies, has grown increasingly critical of his counterpart’s leadership. But the timing on Monday's remark was particularly pointed, coming as it did after the demonstrations and outpouring of grief for the hostages.

Many Israelis accuse Netanyahu of obstructing a deal to stay in power and say that by not ending the war, he is putting the lives of the hostages in danger.

Israel has seen weekly protests in solidarity with the captives since the start of the war.

But over time, as Israelis have tried to return to a semblance of normalcy or have been preoccupied by fears of a regional war with Iran or Hezbollah, the protests have dwindled in size. That has eased pressure on Netanyahu and talks toward a deal have repeatedly fizzled.

But on Sunday, hundreds of thousands of people poured into central Tel Aviv, banging drums and chanting "Deal, now!" About 100 captives remain in Gaza, roughly a third of them said to be dead.

It was the largest demonstration Israel has seen at least since before the war, when Israelis took the streets weekly to protest a plan by Netanyahu to overhaul the judiciary. While the protests coupled with a general strike prompted Netanyahu and his government to walk back or soften some decisions, the overhaul was only put on hold when the war broke out.

The limits of public pressure

The current public outcry has its limits.

Sunday's protest failed to break longstanding political boundaries and appeared to be largely made up of the same liberal, secular Israelis who protested the overhaul and against Netanyahu's leadership while on trial for alleged corruption.

Many of Netanyahu's supporters say he should not relent on any position in talks now.

Similarly, Monday's strike reflected those same political divisions.

Liberal municipalities in central Israel, including Tel Aviv, joined the strike, leading to public daycares and kindergartens closing as well as other services.

But other cities, mostly with illegal Zionist, far-right populations that tend to support Netanyahu, including West Jerusalem, did not join the strike. And a labour court cut the strike short by several hours, hobbling its efficacy.

Without large sustained protests across a broader swath of society, it's hard to see how Netanyahu will feel enough pressure to change his approach, said Hazan, the political scientist.

And so long as his government is stable, he may stick to his demands in the negotiations to appease his coalition and ignore the protests entirely.

Still, relatives of the hostages found killed in Gaza expressed hope that the protests marked a turning point in the war that might force progress on a deal.

In a eulogy for Hersh Goldberg-Polin, an Israeli-American captive, his father spoke of the resonance the deaths might have.

"For 330 days, mama and I sought the proverbial stone that we could turn over to save you," Jon Polin said. "Maybe, just maybe, your death is the stone, the fuel, that will bring home the remaining" hostages.