Experts warn Democrats against dismissing Arab, Muslim American voters

Washington, DC — With the US election approaching, experts warn that Israel's genocidal war on Gaza and recent Israel-Lebanon tensions could sway Arab and Muslim-American voters in the White House race, cautioning Democrats against dismissing their influence.

In a seminar conducted by the Arab Center at the National Press Club in Washington DC on Thursday, Osama Abu Irshaid, Executive Director and Board Member of American Muslims for Palestine (AMP) said that while no one expects Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris to make a substantial policy change, they at least need to hear something different from her regarding Gaza, which didn't happen.

"What we have seen is denying Palestinian-Americans to speak during the DNC. What we have seen is her continuous insistence that she will continue to support Israel while paying lip service to the suffering of the Palestinian people," Abu Irshaid noted.

"Arab and Muslim Americans are American citizens; they shouldn't be treated as something separate, but there is this tendency to try to disfranchise the Arab and Muslim Americans," he added, saying that Harris and Democrats would be making a mistake by dismissing them.

Abu Irshaid also said that he opposes the idea that they should be blamed if Harris loses, which he said some allies have warned them about.

"I don't think it will be on us… she will be blamed for it," he said. "We understand the consequences of a second Trump presidency, but we also have a moral compass where we can't vote for someone who continues to enable the genocide that is taking place in Gaza and continues to embolden Israel to wage another war in Lebanon."

"It's not a choice we make; it's a choice that candidates themselves make, mainly Kamala Harris in this case," he added.

Twin crises, twice the impact

James J. Zogby, Co-founder and President of the Arab American Institute, emphasised that Gaza is a critical issue in this election, and Lebanon could soon become another key factor, cautioning Democrats about the potential reaction of Arab and Muslim American voters.

"Gaza is a deciding factor; Lebanon soon may join it, unfortunately, as a deciding factor, particularly in Michigan," Zogby said.

"If you don't say anything about Lebanon, you can kiss Michigan goodbye," he added. "Democrats have to worry about how we respond and respond more effectively to these twin crises."

Zogby added that Gaza is not just a deciding factor for Arab Americans; young Black, Latino, and Asian voters are also weighing it heavily in their considerations.

"These are voters you can’t leave on the table; you got to do something with them because Democrats need to keep their coalition to win," Zogby said.

Although a minority, Arab and Muslim Americans wield considerable influence in pivotal swing states.

In 2020, over 150,000 Muslim voters in Michigan helped President Joe Biden win the state against Trump. They also helped him win other crucial swing states, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In a post-election survey in 2020, The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) found that around 69 percent of Muslim Americans backed Biden then.

Who is better for Gaza, and who is better for Israel?

While there is broad agreement that Democrats risk losing support due to their backing of Israel amidst the devastation in the blockaded enclave, opinions diverged on which candidate would be a more favourable choice for Palestinians, particularly those in Gaza.

Answering a question by TRT World during the seminar, Zogby said he doesn’t think in this election that Arab-Americans "have a choice", saying the Arab-Americans would have better relations and allies if there is a Democrat in the White House.

"If you think about those four Trump years (as president), we couldn't do a thing. There was nothing you could do… but we know in a Democratic coalition like we have right now, even though they’re doing all the wrong stuff, we have allies," Zogby told TRT World.

Addressing the same TRT World question, albeit from a different perspective, Dalia Mogahed, Scholar and Former Director of Research at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, said the majority of Israelis prefer Trump as president, referring to polls conducted in Israel.

This comes in clear contrast to what American Jewish voters think. According to a September survey by the Jewish Democratic Council of America, Harris has 68 percent support of the Jewish voters, compared to 25 percent for Trump.