How is the Iranian diaspora responding to President Raisi’s death?

Tehran confirmed on Monday the deaths of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian alongside other officials in a helicopter crash in the country's northern East Azerbaijan province.

While thousands of people in Iran gathered to hold prayers, there was a mixed response to the news both in the Iranian diaspora and amongst some in the country, diaspora being staunchly against the clerical rule in Tehran.

In North America, swathes of Iran's diaspora took to social media to express their dissatisfaction with the Iranian government.

The US is home to over 577,000 people who were born in Iran or have Iranian ancestry and have been quick to voice their dissent.

Trita Parsi, whose family left Iran for Sweden when he was a young child to escape "political repression", painted a bleak view of Iran’s future.

He wrote on X that elections would have to be called to elect a new president within 50 days, but considering the low turnout in the last election, Iranians at large are not looking forward to it.

"The population has by and large lost faith in the idea that change can come through the ballot box.”

The Iranian-born analyst added that he believes "real alternatives" to what he describes as "Iran's hardliners" have not been allowed to stand for office in the last few elections.

"At the same time, those alternatives have in the eyes of the majority of the population lost credibility anyways, due to the failure to deliver change. There will likely be some chaotic times in Iran if elections are called," he said.

The helicopter carrying Raisi crashed on Sunday afternoon.

Dozens of emergency rescue teams were quickly dispatched to the mountainous area.

Hours later, the wreckage was found after Turkish Akinci drone joined the rescue efforts.

Vali Nasr, an Iranian-American academic, said the incident poses two important challenges to Iran's ruling class.

"1) It will change the scenarios for succession and related to that. 2) The hard right has no immediate candidate to succeed Raisi, given that it expected him to run and win again in the next election.”

He also questioned whether 50 days are enough for the conservatives to find a candidate who can replace Raisi, a hardliner, who was expected to complete his term.

According to reports citing Iran's Constitution, the first Vice President—Mohammad Mokhber—is expected to assume the presidency while preparations are made to hold the elections.

Erfan Fard, an American-Iranian counterterrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in the United States, took a dim view of potential change in the oil-rich country.

"Raisi's demise will thrill many Iranians. However, the depth of the tragedy lies in the fact that Iranians can envision no future other than (a) disaster for their depleted & exhausted nation," he wrote on X.

Other analysts in the diaspora are even more cynical, like Karim Sadjadpour. The Iranian-American policy analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace suggested that Raisi's death has the potential to lead to what he calls a "succession crisis in Iran."

"He and Mojtaba Khamenei are the only contenders to replace 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei (Mojtaba's father). In Iran's conspiratorial political culture, few will believe Raisi's death was accidental," he wrote.

Despite the incident, analyst Hamidreza Azizi does not envisage any likely challenges at home or on the international stage.

"Overall, the implications of Raisi's death would not be fundamental or a decisive blow to the system. It will impact intra-hardliner competition but not the strategic direction of the Islamic Republic in foreign or domestic politics," he wrote.