Iran, allies set for retaliation after Israel's assassination of Haniyeh

Iran and its regional allies are preparing a coordinated response meant to deter Israel but avert all-out war, sources and analysts said, after Tel Aviv assassinated top Hamas and Hezbollah figures.

On Wednesday, Iranian officials met in Tehran with representatives of "Axis of Resistance" — Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis — to discuss retaliation for Israel's assassinations of Hamas' top political leader and lead negotiator Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah's senior military commander Fuad Shukr, AFP news agency said, citing a source close to the Lebanese group.

"Two scenarios were discussed: a simultaneous response from Iran and its allies or a staggered response from each party," the source who had been briefed on the meeting told AFP, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has threatened a "harsh punishment" for the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned on Thursday his group was bound to respond to Israel's killing of Shukr, saying in a speech broadcast at the funeral that his killing and that of Haniyeh "crossed" red lines.

Nasrallah's warning followed barrage of Hezbollah missiles that were fired from southern Lebanon at northern Israel's Galilee region. There were no immediate details about any casualties and Israeli reaction.

Military vs civilian targets

"There is a very strong likelihood that the response will be coordinated... among other resistance actors," said Amal Saad, a Hezbollah researcher and lecturer at Britain's Cardiff University.

"It's going to greatly deepen the tactical coordination between Iran" and the groups it supports across the region, she said, naming Lebanon's Hezbollah, Palestinian movements Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Yemen's Houthi rebels and Iraq's Hashed al Shaabi force.

A leader of the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a loose alliance of pro-Iran groups, told AFP that "Iran will lead the first response with the participation of Iraqi, Yemeni and Syrian factions, striking military targets, followed by a second response from Hezbollah".

The Iraqi alliance has claimed attacks on US troops, most recently over Israel's genocidal war on Gaza, before suspending them in late January.

It has also claimed to have targeted Israel with drones and rockets.

'Survival'

Iran and its allies are widely expected to respond militarily to the killings by Israel, though experts say the retaliation would be measured to avoid a wider conflagration.

"Iran and Hezbollah will not want to play into (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu's hands and give him the bait or ammunition he needs to drag the US into a war," Saad said.

"They will more than likely try to avert a war while also strongly deterring Israel from continuing with this new policy, this targeted shock and awe."

The White House said the two killings hours apart "don't help" regional tensions, though National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that Washington saw "no signs that an escalation is imminent".

Iranian analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi, who specialises in international relations, said "a stronger response is expected" from Tehran than during its last direct face-off with Israel in April.

Iran on April 13 made its first ever direct attack on Israeli soil, firing a barrage of drones and missiles after a strike blamed on Israel killed Revolutionary Guards at Tehran's consulate in Damascus.

The United States was in touch with Iran at the time, sending "a series of direct communications through the Swiss channel," a senior administration official had told AFP.

Zeidabadi said that "a repeat of the previous operation wouldn't make much sense, because the missiles and drones did not hit sensitive areas or have a deterrent effect."

But he ruled out a "generalised, all-out and out-of-control war".

According to Middle East analyst Rodger Shanahan, "They will put a lot of pressure on the Israelis on behalf of the Palestinians, but they are not going to risk an existential threat against them," he told AFP.