Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire: Timeline, impacts, and next steps

After two months of all-out conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, a ceasefire deal brokered by the United States and France is meant to end the devastating Israeli aggression.

The ceasefire is aimed at facilitating the peaceful withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon over the next 60 days, a senior US official with knowledge of the negotiations said.

The ceasefire went into effect at 4:00 am local time Wednesday in Israel and Lebanon (0200 GMT), at which point "all fire will stop from all parties," the US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said.

What next?

Israeli forces will hold their positions, but "a 60-day period will start in which the Lebanese military and security forces will begin their deployment towards the south," the official said.

That will give them time to reach the Israeli positions, at which point Israel can begin a phased withdrawal without any vacuum forming that could see Hezbollah or others rush in, the official explained.

The withdrawal should take no longer than 60 days, the official said.

Hezbollah must also withdraw from the southern border with Israel and move further north up the Litani River -- something it has not done despite a UN Security Council resolution calling for it in 2006 (UN Resolution 1701).

"Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon will not be allowed to be rebuilt," emphasized US President Joe Biden in comments explaining the deal.

Biden said that the United States, with the support of France and other allies, would "provide the necessary assistance to make sure this deal is implemented fully and effectively."

However, that does not mean US boots on the ground, he said.

Instead, "if Hezbollah or anyone else breaks the deal and poses a direct threat to Israel, then Israel retains the right to self-defence consistent with international law," Biden stated.

The United States and France will join the tripartite mechanism created after the 2006 war, bringing together the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), Israel and Lebanon.

This mechanism, which going forward will be chaired by the United States, will be tasked with maintaining communication between the various parties and ensuring that whenever any violation is identified it is dealt with to avoid any escalation, the US official said.

A military committee involving the armies of "several other countries" will also provide additional support to the Lebanese army in terms of equipment, training and financial resources.

"We remain committed to be on the ground, day to day, watch what's happening and to let everybody know ... that the world is watching," the official said.

What next for Lebanon?

The Israeli war on Lebanon has taken a heavy toll, with over 3,700 people killed since hostilities began in October 2023, and one million people displaced from areas where Hezbollah has a strong presence.

The World Bank estimates economic losses and damage at $8.5 billion (£6.8 billion), and the road to recovery is expected to be long, with no clear answer on who will fund it.

Hezbollah has also been severely impacted, with many of its leaders, including long-time head Hassan Nasrallah, killed and its infrastructure significantly damaged. The group's future post-war remains uncertain.

Though weakened, as per US, Hezbollah has not been eradicated. Beyond being a militia, it is also a political party with a presence in Parliament and a social organisation with support among Shia Muslims.

For months, critics of the group, particularly those outside its core support base, argued that Hezbollah had led the country into a war that was not in Lebanon's interest. While this truce might bring an end to Israel's war on the country, fear of a new internal conflict persists.

What next for Gaza?

The ceasefire agreement without a similar deal with Hamas in Gaza has left Palestinians fearful that Israel will focus squarely on its onslaught in the enclave.

Hezbollah began firing missiles at Israel, claiming solidarity with Hamas, after the Palestinian resistance group attacked Israel in October 2023.

The Lebanese group had insisted that it would not agree to a ceasefire until the war in Gaza ends, but it dropped that condition.

"We had high hopes that Hezbollah would remain steadfast until the end but it seems they couldn't," said Tamer al Burai, a Gaza City businessman.

"We are afraid the Israeli army will now have a free hand in Gaza."

Earlier in November Qatar told Hamas and Israel it would stall its efforts to mediate a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal until they show "willingness and seriousness" to resume talks.